Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Scal, just got home from a job interview! Wish me luck, friend, cause I really want out of this gambling business. Anyway, I wanted to offer a counter to some of your points and hear your response:
1) The NBA does not care about this series (or extending it) as much as the others (and its got some good ones going). The only thing they care about is getting a Nets/Heat matchup. Toronto is not even on their radar and the refs will call this game 50/50.
2) You can't apply the "happy getting a split tag" to the Nets here. Circumstances are way different. First, you have an older team that knows the importance of trying to finish off an opponent quickly. The longer the series goes, the more chance of injury, fatigue etc...
If these guys go all in and win tonight, they probably won't have to come back to Toronto, but if they split, they will.
3) And this is related to the previous point. The Nets are not competing with the Raptors of the world, but with Miami. And when they look at the Miami series what do they see? A sweep, most likely, because of big Al's injury. Another motivating factor for winning now, instead of waiting for game 5, where they probably will not be as rested as they are now, which could then mean a game 6.
Wow, that is GREAT news. I REALLY HOPE you get the job.
1) Completely disagree. The whistle the Nets got is now very public(so public now even the hated Doneghy is chiming in) so there will be a giveback tonight.
In theory your idea is sound. But not in practice where the NBA, in a new era, actually publicly admits missed calls (most recently the Chris Paul out of bounds call).
2) When I say "Happy to get a split" I'm really referring to the motivation they will bring to the table tonight. I know the nets would love to go home up 2-0 and have the talent to do it.
The problem is actually doing it, specifically with what might be the biggest star who routinely dogs it in Deron Williams. Since he was the main offensive force in game 1, to ask him to do it two games in a row, is too much, especially against a backcourt do Derozan and Lowry, who if Derozan steps up tonight (and he will improve because he can't do worse) will match any nets backcourt step for step.
3) The Nets simply do not have the pieces to win on the road in this environment in the playoffs two games in a row. They can of course but I have them capped as not only failing to do so but falling outside the spread as well.
If you go back and watch game 1, you will be shocked to see how little the nets had to offer offensively outside of Deron and JJ. PP scored with 3 minutes left in the first and didn't score again until 3 minutes left in the game. KG's play offensively was akin to Jason Collins. But not Collins 2003...Collins 2013.
JJ will have another big game and will have several in this series. He creates all kinds of mismatches.
But this means you lean on Deron as your number 2. He simply doesn't bring it night after night. He'll try but the minute he gets discouraged he folds.
This means you have to lean on guys like PP (who had a poor game for 3.5 quarters last time out), KG (who is now allergic to the rim), Livingston (nice player but not a prime time playoff guy), Thornton (who can score but has to take minutes from Livingston or Deron which Kidd doesn't want to do), and Plumlee:Blatche who were outplayed by leaps and bounds by Valanciunas last game.
This doesn't even touch on Terrance Ross giving you something offensively (gave you nothing last game) which will give the raps a good shot to cover this.
Keep me posted on the job! You gotta get out of the gambling business!