pig, melo, metta, coach, baby and the gang wednesday NBA/ MLB

another sports wagering day awakens from the stench of the sty, that smells a bit better after a modest profit last night.... spurs total managed to go over, thanks to OT cinncy in bases was a winner. coach threw in a handful of winners across the wagering spectrum as did metta, melo, and baby... bacteria is becoming a regular along with stone cutter, and gambit is the resident cheerleader/ whiner...depending on his wagering fortunes at any given moment...  on to todays games....first, lets take a look at the twins visiting the braves in hotlanta...after a spectacular start to the season, paul maholm is pitching more like the career journeyman he is. in his last 3 starts he is sporting a WHIP of 1.62 and ERA of 5.62. vance worley has been pitching slightly better his last 3 starts but still has awful numbers.....a WHIP of 1.84 and an ERA of 4.41.... but here are the numbers that really jump out at me....in his last 16.1 innings, he has allowed 26 hits...while maholm has allowed 20 hits in his last 16 innings. in their last 3 starts these pitchers are a combined 5-1 to the over.. worley has a BAA of 369, but it drops to 255 in day games, a number that also caught my attention...left handed hitters are hitting a scant 117 against maholm, but righties are hitting close to 300 against him, and not surprisingly the twin lineup features only one left handed hitter, justin morneau..i thought the total on this game would be 8 1/2, maybe 9.....and i see 7 1/2, and i smell a trap, but this mouse....or pig, will take the cheese and go over 7 1/2 full game and over 4 first 5......i really like this play, trap or not...i think the line is skewed due to maholms 3-0 start and 0.00 ERA over that time...
also, in the reds-mets game....i dont usually do this, but i will make a SMALL play on a prop....NO SCORE in the first inning...both pitchers ( latos and harvey) pitching well and neither team ripping the cover off the ball..a lot of juice at - 145 or it would be a bigger play.
 good luck to everyone, unless you fade my picks . lets try and beat up on the MAN.... i will be back later... feel free to comment or leave some suggestions for plays... thanks everyone.

BOL Pig. J. Upton, McCann, and Mauer aren't playing today, yikes. 

 thats OK, mauer is a leftie and we want righties in against maholm...

im playing both of these as well... twins TT over 3 and braves TT over 4....juice is reasonable and i think this game goes over, so both teams should have a chance at going over.....bullpens are fairly decent, nothing special...

Morning, Pig et al......I'm already on that ATL TT with you   Let's have another solid day, my friend

so far my only play is padres TT O. tyler lyons is the starting pitcher coming from AAA where he was giving up 11 hits/9 innings and has a 1.4 whip. now STL is starting him in the majors tonight vs SD, who has been kind of hot recently, in their hitter's park in Petco, I do think they should be able to manufacture runs. 

It looks like there will be a lot of juice laid today. Here are my leans, let me know if anyone has the same.

As for NBA I am thinking Miami doesn't have another game 1 let down and covers the 8 with the under hitting. 

Hey guys, still disappointed about losing that SF/WAS Over last night.  But at least SF covered the TT in the end.  Got a bunch for early games...

Both Latos and Harvey are top notch, but Cinc has a huge edge in hitting; they should be able to score enough off Harvey to win this game. Nice getting plus money too.

. Hellickson and Buehrle about as bad as it gets. Both teams hitting well but took it easy last night. If offenses are motivated they could bury these pitchers, so 9.5 isn't that high.

. Though FG over lost last night, I'm surprised its so cheap with the high outgoing winds (19mph). Both pitchers have given up their share of runs, and both tend to play in Over games. Gonna take another shot at a blowout.

st inning YES +135 Wash/SF SMALL. Worked out nicely last night; same circumstances today. Like getting that 135.

. Was going to play the Snakes, but I like both these pitchers and think they can hold off the offenses for the 1^st 5. Wind blowing in could help keep it safe. Still high risk though, so just a small play.

Hi guys! hope everyone is ready for a great day!

Nothing against the play itself, but I think Petco is considered a pitcher's park rather than hitter's....

Lock....generally speaking, I would caution against playing heavy favs as that's a recipe for long-term disaster.  At those prices, going a respectable 3-2, you'd turn a very small profit.  Thus, it boils down to a simple risk/reward analysis.  Also, keep in mind that the lines are generally reflective of the starting pitchers which assumes that both starters will pitch their typical game.  However, we all know that even the top SPs in the game today won't have their best stuff game in and game out.

Further, let's look at that KC game.  Shields is a stud who "should" win this matchup from the "public's" perspective.  His 2.45 ERA is really good...particularly in the AL.  But hold on a second....his 2-4 record tells me something further.....his team, for whatever reason, is not providing much run support posting a measly 5 runs in his 4 losses.  Moreover, the team is 3-6 in his 9 starts this year.

Now, I'm not saying that KC will lose tonight but with all of the above in mind, is it really worth risking big-time juice for a nominal return?  I'll also guarantee you that many will include KC in parlays tonight banking on a sure thing.  While this could very well work out, I just don't think that this is a profitable strategy in the long-run.  After all, this is the MLB where unlikely stuff happens on a daily basis.......JMO.

Pretty much on the same thing, except adding a total.

All that typing and missed the start to the Cincy game.  Adding....

Cincy Pk (+110) in-game

hi people,,, good day and good luck for all....

Thanks for the advice Coach. 

Wow...that was easy...eh, Pig?

wow homers peralta 8  runs in 4to 

Wow good start withe the over F5 and whole Atlanta game, thoughts on the texas F5 and FG? I like the F5 over 

After a very solid 4-1 night, looking to stay hot this afternoon:

Don't know much about Ross Wolf other than being an 11-year journeyman in the minors which usually isn't a good thing.  He did have a few appearances with FL and Oak with little success.  Parker's pitched well as of late and has had success against Texas hitters.  Too many variables for me....no play on F5 but will keep my eye on in-game potentials.

 i LOVE easy coach

wow homer cinic in top 3ro 

2-0 start today! Great start! Cheering for all of your plays. 2 more to go to finish strong.