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HEAT ML last leg of Parlay... all opinions greatly appreciated, this is big money for me!!!

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
I bet 250 to win 1095 on a parlay with the Heat ML and 2 MLB totals that both hit today - yes I'm in great shape.

I can lock up a big profit right now and take Pacers ML at +350 say 250 to win 875. If Heat win I'm + 845, if Pacers win I'm + 625. I can also bet less on Pacers ML say 75 to win 260 - this would guarantee I can't lose and I'll still be up 1,000+ if the Heat win. 

I can take Pacers +8 say 330 to win 300, this also would guarantee a profit - IF Pacers win outright I'm +50, Heat win 1-7 + 1395 (which would be the ultimate scenario) Heat win by 8 +1095, Heat cover I'm up 765. 

OR I can lay off - win 1095 if the Heat win or lose 250 if they lose - don't think I like this option. 

Those are some of my initial thoughts. 
 What would you guys do in this spot? Thanks in advance for the help. 
 
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Posted: #2
Let it ride. No hedge. That's what I'd do...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by iBETnWIN:

Let it ride. No hedge. That's what I'd do...

yeah? don't think I should guarantee a profit? 
 
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Posted: #4
ride it out... 
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
Heat
 
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Posted: #6
hedge it down the middle man, guarantee yourself maximum profit no matter the outcome

do the math and count your cash
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Bet pacers ml, the best guranteed cash for you.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
Im no capper or stat guy or whatever. I do watch and bet as a hobby alot. No way Heat lose game 1 after losing game 1 against the Bulls. No way. But this is what I would do. I could live with breaking even in the event Heat lose. You watched the unthinkable and came out unscathed   "bet less on Pacers ML say 75 to win 260 - this would guarantee I can't lose and I'll still be up 1,000+ if the Heat win. . " 
 
Legend
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by NPCTX1:

Im no capper or stat guy or whatever. I do watch and bet as a hobby alot. No way Heat lose game 1 after losing game 1 against the Bulls. No way. 







 
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Posted: #10
I would try to hedge.  If your parlay investment (not payout) was much smaller, then yeah, maybe ride it out.  That's a nice payday, so protect it. 
 
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Posted: #11
wait til halftime... even if the pacers are up by 8 or less, you will still get even money on the heat to win the game... no way the heat are down by more than 8.
 
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Posted: #12
 
Veteran
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Posted: #13
get into the habit of hedging. rule out your emotions. 
 
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Posted: #14

I'd Throw a little on Pacers + points... could have 2 wins

or 2 team teaser Pacers and Over, if you can

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
I would toss 300 on pacers +8 and 50 on pacers ml. That way u cover all options and will profit no matter what.
 
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Posted: #16
Let it ride..Do Not Fade your -self..   think of it like this SHOTGUN, if either of the 2 mlb totals lost and this parlay went bunk....would you bet the Pacers ml/ats???? if the answer is yes,,,,fade fade fade and hedge hedge hedge..but if not..which I would lean to NOT.,.. then let it ride and get the most bang for your buck
 
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Posted: #17

Pacers ML 75/260 at the very least. You still win 1K or break even. Definitely do that at least to protect your $250.

Splitting it down the middle so that you win the same either way seems silly....you do want some "action" on the game right? But going 150/520 seems like the best of both worlds to me. If the Heat win, you still pocket $945. if lightening does strike twice?.........you still pocket $270 with the upset. This is a good problem to have. Don't screw it up and leave yourself open to being down $250 at the end of the night. 

Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
 
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Posted: #18
I can lock up a big profit right now and take Pacers ML at +350 say 250 to win 875. If Heat win I'm + 845, if Pacers win I'm + 625.

^
I would do that. Grats man. 
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by InvestIdontChase:

Let it ride..Do Not Fade your -self..   think of it like this SHOTGUN, if either of the 2 mlb totals lost and this parlay went bunk....would you bet the Pacers ml/ats???? if the answer is yes,,,,fade fade fade and hedge hedge hedge..but if not..which I would lean to NOT.,.. then let it ride and get the most bang for your buck


probably the dumbest post all day.  how did you learn how to turn on a computer?
 
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Posted: #20
no way heat lose game 1... i think they will come out with alot of intensity. after losing game 1 to chicago, they wont take their opponents lightly. same thing with the spurs almost lost game 1 to the warriors, next series they blow out the grizzlies in game 1.

i can see the same scenario.. heat lose game 1 to chicago, come game 1 vs the pacers and blow them out. pacers are known for not showing up on the road especially having a not so good bench. in dj augustin and tyler hansborough.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #21
at least toss in a small one to get your money back. I pick a heavy fave for the next days action on all my parlays for this very reason.
 
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Posted: #22
If I were in your position I would probably hedge with the Pacers + the points for probably 1/4 of your expected payout.  And a bill on the Pacers ML.  Then you can still have room to maneuver at halftime if the opportunity presents itself.  But I would definitely hedge.  I just prefer the + points because you can win both bets.  With the ML hedge only, one of your bets is a loser for sure, and I hate that.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #23
take the packers spread! You want that window of more $! Put around 150 on pacers spread
 
All-Star
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Posted: #24
Why did you include it in the parlay to begin with?  Hedging just guarantees your book makes juice on the deal.  This has been discussed over and over.
 
 
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Posted: #25
the hedge is a no brainer! Get a sprinkle on Pacers ML sit back and enjoy the dough...
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