| Author: |
[NBA Betting] Topic: 1st Half under system |
|
radiobam |
RSI   View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 901
Location: United States |
#26 Posted: 1/19/2013 6:45:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Ramathorn02:
I can't this early, well I guess I can. I just look up what the espn, tnt, or abc games are on and I bet the under in the first. I'd do it on nba tv too, if I have time.
oh i didnt mean today or right now, just when the plays present themselves and on that today
anyways best of luck
|
|
quote |
|
air23blc |
RSI  |
Captain
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 5016
Location: United States |
#27 Posted: 1/19/2013 6:49:38 PM |
|
quote |
|
Ramathorn02 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2578
Location: |
#28 Posted: 1/19/2013 8:34:18 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by radiobam:
oh i didnt mean today or right now, just when the plays present themselves and on that today
anyways best of luck
Gotcha. I'll try. Usually, espn and tnt have games on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday right? That's when I look, I'll post then I guess.
Problem is I have a shady behind bookie who will start shading garbage, so I may have to fade eventually. Hot start, but I want this system to go 80-50, so I know we will suffer losses. |
|
quote |
|
Ramathorn02 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2578
Location: |
#29 Posted: 1/19/2013 8:36:38 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by air23blc:
Ram I'm going to start a new thread so that I can track all of the plays that are on league pass, local and national tv
Sounds good.
This is really funny. I can tell everyone here most of the best I made my first two years were on the game over in football and basketball. I guess when you're desperate you bet the over, hahah. Seriously, 90% of my bets must've been overs. Just couldn't get myself to be the under. |
|
quote |
|
PatrickHenry2K |
RSI  |
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 165
Location: Nevada |
#30 Posted: 1/20/2013 1:08:51 AM  |
|
quote |
|
|
|
jambo12 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 73
Location: Australia |
#31 Posted: 1/20/2013 6:09:07 AM
Had a bit of time on my hands so back-tested for last season for TNT televised games.
43 games televised on TNT, using the system results are:
1H under (win) - 21 games
1H over but 2H under (win) - 12 games
winning games - 33/43
Unfortunately the fact that if both halves go over it loses us 3 units meant that the system 'only' gave a profit of 5 units.
Now for the interesting (for me anyway) part. If we only take the games after 12th Jan 2012 (roughly when you started following it this year) the results are:
34 games
1H Under (win) - 19 games
1H Over but 2H under (win) -11 games
Winning games 30/34 (+18 units)
The televised games up to Jan 12th were very high scoring (totals including 222,225,226 (6 of of 10 televised games >200). Now for those who believe in conspiracy theories the scenario could be - start the season with high-scoring televised games so the public get used to backing the overs and winning. Then, bang, the unders hit for the rest of the season.
Also, 2 out of the 4 'losing' games after Jan 12th were on the same day (the first televised games after the All Star game. High ratings, a lot of public interest, again, 'look folks both games above 200, remember how high-scoring the NBA is and how the overs always win?'. Then the unders get up in 15 out of the last 16. Food for thought.
|
|
quote |
|
Ramathorn02 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2578
Location: |
#32 Posted: 1/20/2013 10:28:36 AM Good stuff Jambo. I have no doubt this system will not to be faded.
Also, a school of thought is not doubling up in the second half, just betting one unit. |
|
quote |
|
Ramathorn02 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2578
Location: |
#33 Posted: 1/20/2013 10:31:07 AM I meant should be faded at some point, but wow great stats Jambo.
I think as the season wears on fatigue is a factor, fighting for a playoff spot could be a factor, etc. |
|
quote |
|
Ramathorn02 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2578
Location: |
#34 Posted: 1/20/2013 10:33:38 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by PatrickHenry2K:
This system makes perfect sense, simple and obviously effective, well done Ram! Thanks Patrick!!
I know the games tend to go under on Christmas day, wonder if MLK day will be the same. |
|
quote |
|
bbe_bb_2006 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 36
Location: |
#35 Posted: 1/20/2013 11:40:37 AM |
|
quote |
|
bbe_bb_2006 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 36
Location: |
#36 Posted: 1/20/2013 11:56:10 AM |
|
quote |
|
drewsmooth |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bally's Las Vegas | |
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 371
Location: California |
#37 Posted: 1/20/2013 1:05:26 PM |
|
quote |
|
Ramathorn02 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2578
Location: |
#38 Posted: 1/20/2013 10:42:14 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bbe_bb_2006:
Ramathorn02...... I read all about the system and try to check the game they play on televise. How about when they play on ABC Sacramento not ABC alone like on Jan 25th. Is it count in the system? For me no.
I only play the ones televised nationally. ESpn, tnt.
To answer your other question, someone did the CFB under system during bowl games only and it was a big hit. So, I tried it on NBA televised only.
Right now, 1st halves aren't even available on my book for some reason. Wonder if he's just being a person. |
|
quote |
|
Ramathorn02 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2578
Location: |
#39 Posted: 1/21/2013 10:17:15 AM
Pacers/Griz U87 (this looks like a loser, haha) Nets/Knicks U97.5 Spurs/Sixers U98
All look scary as hell. Good luck if you play them. |
|
quote |
|
bbe_bb_2006 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 36
Location: |
#40 Posted: 1/21/2013 10:55:12 AM |
|
quote |
|
bbe_bb_2006 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 36
Location: |
#41 Posted: 1/21/2013 10:56:13 AM |
|
quote |
|
alangrrbs |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 867
Location: |
#42 Posted: 1/21/2013 2:12:16 PM 
|
|
quote |
|
thebird40 |
RSI  |
Rookie
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 936
Location: Nevada |
#43 Posted: 1/21/2013 2:15:36 PM
|
|
quote |
|
WakeAndRake |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 291
Location: California |
#44 Posted: 1/21/2013 2:16:11 PM |
|
quote |
|
49ers_sb |
RSI  |
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 251
Location: California |
#45 Posted: 1/21/2013 2:19:30 PM |
|
quote |
|
prodigy808 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 655
Location: |
#46 Posted: 1/21/2013 2:26:24 PM |
|
quote |
|
tnguy67 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 38
Location: |
#47 Posted: 1/21/2013 2:28:36 PM
|
|
quote |
|
NyCxAlan |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 64
Location: New York |
#48 Posted: 1/21/2013 2:28:41 PM
Indy/Memphis under first half
they couldnt score 4 points in 2 mins. thank god.
2 games on TNT tonight
|
|
quote |
|
ktan23 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Wynn Las Vegas | |
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 258
Location: California |
#49 Posted: 1/21/2013 2:28:44 PM |
|
quote |
|
tnguy67 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 38
Location: |
#50 Posted: 1/21/2013 2:32:29 PM
Spurs and 76ers - TNT
Lakers and Bulls - TNT
This is what i have on espn.com
|
|
quote |