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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: What are the odds......
curtis07 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/9/2012 4:40:59 PM
Have been having a convo with colleagues over this....

If you flip a coin heads 9 times in a row......are your chances for that 10th flip still 50-50 or have the odds of it being tails increased.....


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Daywalker331 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: JustBet.cx |
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#2
Posted: 5/9/2012 4:50:08 PM
LOL CLEVER you know my answer... which is same as yours..!!!
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#3
Posted: 5/9/2012 4:50:58 PM
What's all the Hostility generated towards you about?
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#4
Posted: 5/9/2012 4:58:21 PM
daywalker that other thread just reminded me of the convo i just had with some of my coworkers and i am looking for the true answer...i said the odds of being tails have increased they said they will always be 50-50 no matter what....they are not gamblers though.....so just wanted to get some more opinions i know who u feel......which i agree with....

there is no hostility towards me not that i know of i was just killing that guy who capped the clippers as an 8 pt favorite tonight....i said he was a joke

any plays tonight
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#5
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:00:03 PM
badbeat thanks for your input so do the previous 9 flips mean nothing...the "data" or knowledge of knowing heads has gone 9-9 has no effect on the next flip

thanks my man
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Posted: 5/9/2012 5:03:08 PM
daywalker just saw what ur talking about it was badbeat who just posted here he was just defending his buddy which is fine no worries....just have a problem with someone who says vegas is off by 14 pts thats ridicolous 
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#7
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:03:15 PM

Ok well it's a Physic's expirment it's actuslly really been tested of course coin flip works better thsn Roulette wheel for the simple fact there's two Green slot's on american and one green on european. However i''ve had great suscess at it ..however once i went to a table that was red 10 spins playd black doubling my wager each time tto make up for losses ran outta steam on the 17th spin and on the 18th it was green!!! Terrible night many year's ago!!! 

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Posted: 5/9/2012 5:13:59 PM
tails happening has NOT INCREASED, the coin does not remember what its previous flips are, its not like a self correcting crap

gambler's fallacy believing just cause 5 previous are heads for instance the next one is more likely tails
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#9
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:15:07 PM
Independent events.  The previous flip has no outcome on the next event, so it is always 50/50.  But me and my friends were having this discussion on gambling.  Say you started at $25 for your first bet and only bet one game at a time.  If you lose the bet go up to $50 on the next that way you cover the juice and still make money.  Keep doing this until you win.  Once you win, you go back down to $25 and start the process over.  You will never win big, but if you had a large bank roll, you would make money in the long-term.    
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#10
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:21:51 PM
My gosh it's a theory It's the law of averages it's has nothing to do with a coins memory. It has to do with statistics and averages. JACOB BERNOULLI came up with it NOT ME you can GOGGLE IT. It's like I hate to say this.... GOD some believe and some don't but it has not been proven to be right or wrong. i hope that statemenet didn't jus start a real garbage storm 
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#11
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:26:45 PM
stats say 1000 flips would be close to 50-50.........10. not so much
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#12
Posted: 5/9/2012 5:30:57 PM
thanks for all the input guys....
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Posted: 5/9/2012 5:44:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by curtis07:

daywalker that other thread just reminded me of the convo i just had with some of my coworkers and i am looking for the true answer...i said the odds of being tails have increased they said they will always be 50-50 no matter what....they are not gamblers though.....so just wanted to get some more opinions i know who u feel......which i agree with....



holy garbage it scares the hell out of me that people actually don't know the answer to this question... this is literally statistics 101... first day, first lesson...

the odds of any coin flip will always be 50-50 no matter what any previous coin flip produces... always!  this never will change!  this is not a matter of opinion... this is statistical law!

i'm thinking you should not be gambling if you don't know this... wow! 


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Posted: 5/10/2012 12:55:57 AM
Apocalypse I got a drs from Cornell in statistics ur wrong but thanks for ur input up 20k over 3 yrs I think I'll keep gambling good luck 
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Daywalker331 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: JustBet.cx |
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#15
Posted: 5/10/2012 12:58:59 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by curtis07:

Apocalypse I got a drs from Cornell in statistics ur wrong but thanks for ur input up 20k over 3 yrs I think I'll keep gambling good luck 

Damn you got a DRS from Cornell.. That's the most IMPRESSIVE post I've ever read in here. 

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#16
Posted: 5/10/2012 1:05:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Daywalker331:

My gosh it's a theory It's the law of averages it's has nothing to do with a coins memory. It has to do with statistics and averages. JACOB BERNOULLI came up with it NOT ME you can GOGGLE IT. It's like I hate to say this.... GOD some believe and some don't but it has not been proven to be right or wrong. i hope that statemenet didn't jus start a real garbage storm 

1. A theory isn't a law. They're two different things.
2. How do I GOGGLE something?
3. What does God have to do with this topoc?
4. You don't understand the law of averages. It isn't a real, developed theory or law. Like you said, it's a belief and thus you cannot evoke it to be true; in that case, an argument about it has no point whatsoever. In any case, though, the law of averages does not at all counteract the argument that a coin-flip will always be 50-50.
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#17
Posted: 5/10/2012 1:08:32 AM
I've heard a lot of people use the analogy with the roulette table and black and red.  However coins are the same concept.

Each flip is independent of the flip that came before that.  In other words the last flip has no effect on future flips.  50/50 is the probability each time - your odds may not be 50/50 like in roulette.  Either way, I've seen it spin on red over 15 times in a row, and the same thing can be said for a coin.

As humans we would like to say the time of probability is up and that the coin is "DUE" to hit the other way.  We just like to think that way naturally in order to convince ourselves that the other side of the coin would be even more likely to come up since it is "DUE".  Don't buy into this. The truth is in the math, not in your heart.  
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Posted: 5/10/2012 1:12:20 AM
^ right

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#19
Posted: 5/10/2012 1:13:40 AM

1 The Theory is call the Law of Averages

2 Type Goggle in your seach bar click on the engine then type Law of averages or BERNOULLI and READ

3 God was an example of something that people may or may not believe in (like the law of averages) that theres no real proff of existance.

4 Emulates Your opinion ...go back to GOD ANSWER and read agian

5. I am ABSOLUTLY DONE WITH THIS TOPIC!!!! 

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Posted: 5/10/2012 1:18:28 AM
If you had a DRS in statistics you shouldn't have to ask this question...
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Posted: 5/10/2012 1:57:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mikado:

I've heard a lot of people use the analogy with the roulette table and black and red.  However coins are the same concept.

Each flip is independent of the flip that came before that.  In other words the last flip has no effect on future flips.  50/50 is the probability each time - your odds may not be 50/50 like in roulette.  Either way, I've seen it spin on red over 15 times in a row, and the same thing can be said for a coin.

As humans we would like to say the time of probability is up and that the coin is "DUE" to hit the other way.  We just like to think that way naturally in order to convince ourselves that the other side of the coin would be even more likely to come up since it is "DUE".  Don't buy into this. The truth is in the math, not in your heart.  

 
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#22
Posted: 5/10/2012 2:03:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by curtis07:

Have been having a convo with colleagues over this....

If you flip a coin heads 9 times in a row......are your chances for that 10th flip still 50-50 or have the odds of it being tails increased.....



Maybe you guys are asking the wrong question. The right question would be "What are the odds that there will be 10 straight heads"
They are correct when they say that the 10th coin flick will still be 50/50. But when are talking about 10 straight heads, then it is a different story.
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Posted: 5/10/2012 3:52:38 AM
The odds are still the same, sir....

unless its a double sided coin. 
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#24
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:06:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vlack:


Maybe you guys are asking the wrong question. The right question would be "What are the odds that there will be 10 straight heads"
They are correct when they say that the 10th coin flick will still be 50/50. But when are talking about 10 straight heads, then it is a different story.

Considering if you were betting that a coin would land on heads 10 straight times than the probability would be different than 50/50.  It would make it more like 1000/1 I believe.  I am no math major like the original poster, I could be wrong.  However, I do believe it you are betting on a coin landing on heads 10 times straight the odds is always 50/50.  It is probability that is changing.  I could have it all mixed up or whatever, but the original question was not all that clear to begin with.  
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Posted: 5/10/2012 8:28:39 AM

The odds remain at 50-50 regardless of past flips.

Here's the thing to remember, IF GIVEN ENOUGH CHANCES SOME-ONE OR SOMETHING WILL BEAT THE ODDS EVENTUALLY.

Look at it this way, if 100 people were to flip a coin 100 times, the overwelming majority will be very close to 50-50, but a few exceptions will beat the odds because in 100 chances a few will almost always beat the odds.

A nice day-out would be take your GF, wife or family to the museum of science, they will have props set-up to illistrate this point.

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