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Action_Junkee |
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#151 Posted: 5/7/2012 2:18:20 PM  |
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#152 Posted: 5/7/2012 2:19:29 PM
Also, the total has moved up a full point to 199.5 even though the public seems divided on the total. This move is progressive and directional and is a full point so far.
Guys the indicators are pointing towards Utah and the over so far. Way too early to call anything here and we gotta see what this line does but so far so good. |
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#153 Posted: 5/7/2012 2:27:30 PM
Interestingly, in spite of public being all over the clips' nuts, as well as the over, the line has moved from -2 to -1, then back to -1.5. I'd love to see this line stick at -1 and take Memphis, but again it's way too early and no play yet.
The total is interesting, Covers busters are 2/1 on the over And the line is down 1/2 a point so far today, indicating that the under may be a play later.
Like the other game we're gonna track this line throughout the day, but so far indicators are pointing towards Memphis and the under. Too early though and the indicators are not strong enough yet.
Let's see what the data shows us later. |
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#154 Posted: 5/7/2012 2:32:04 PM
Guys, if the public is all over the -2 team the line should go up, not down. If this line lands anywhere between -1/2 and -1.5 I'm gonna like Memphis, although I'm not calling it yet.
Also these unders have been hitting big time in the playoffs, including the last clips game, and with the busters on the over if this line holds and/or goes down any more, the under is gonna be the play.
We'll see what the line does - NO PLAYS AS OF YET |
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#155 Posted: 5/7/2012 2:34:17 PM CZECH'S SYSTEM (basketball and football)
Criteria for plays: (every play must meet all 3 criteria, and every game that meets the criteria must be bet, and every game that does not meet the criteria must not be bet. No exceptions)
1) There must be significant, progressive, directional line action in our direction. (more details on different line moves, which ones we take and which ones do not qualify, etc to follow)
2) The line action (and play) must be in opposition to what the busters are favoring (more details on who the busters are, and what percentages we look for, etc to follow)
3) We must personally approve of the play (more details on what this means to follow) |
Sub-rules of engagement:
1) Don't do anything stupid. 2) Follow the system. Refer to rule 1 at all times. 3) Bet every single game indicated by the system, for a set amount 4) Do not bet ANY game disqualified by the system, period. 5) Stay away from PK lines. 6) Only line moves of a full point or more qualify. 7) Always obey rule 3, and follow your gut. 8) Be disciplined. 9) Don't be biased. 10) No-play the moves that move back again. |
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#156 Posted: 5/7/2012 2:37:32 PM
There have been many times in the past that I have tried to squeeze plays into the card that really do not qualify. Guys, the system works. Follow the system and you will be profitable, I guarantee it.
I didn't really need to re-post the above rules but it's refreshing for us all to re-read them from time to time. In the future you will see certain plays miss, and then when you refer to the rulebook you will see, okay, that play really disqualified for this reason or that one.
Be disciplined and FOLLOW THE RULES and you'll be a winner. |
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#157 Posted: 5/7/2012 2:39:49 PM
We need to watch all 4 lines for potential plays but I already have my eye on this one especially. |
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#158 Posted: 5/7/2012 2:43:35 PM
Above posts are describing my initial feelings on tonight's games, BUT THERE ARE NO PLAYS YET.
Some people new to the thread might get confused so I'm spelling it out right here. NO PLAYS AT THIS TIME. We wait until close to game time to make final decisions. |
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kendawg |
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#159 Posted: 5/7/2012 2:50:28 PM |
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#160 Posted: 5/7/2012 2:56:28 PM
So far the SYSTEM is on FIRE!! 
13-6 YTD, 4-0 in this thread, and on W9 streak with W5 on Covers Survivor.
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yankee77 |
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#161 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:03:03 PM |
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#162 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:10:35 PM |
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#163 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:12:48 PM |
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#164 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:16:59 PM
We're looking for lively discussion in here and all members are welcomed to join in. The goal of this thread is to follow the system and bring down the books hard!
As long as no one is a hater they are encouraged to post and be a part of the discussion. I'm hoping that this thread will be the future home of all that want to follow the sharps to the bank!! |
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yankee77 |
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#165 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:24:17 PM |
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#166 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:29:45 PM |
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#167 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:40:41 PM
The ONLY time it makes sense to jump early is if you're trying to jump on a real steam move. This is rare though. A lot of times when you see a line moving normally it's tempting to "act now" before you lose value.
My friend taught me to wait a long time ago, and I never listened, and time and again I would take a bet only to watch the line move against me later, and then I would lose. I acted too early with incomplete info and paid for it.
Here's a perfect example, the Boston total yesterday. That line went down to 170.5 throughout the day, and I was chomping at the bit to take the under. I didn't, and then the line shot back up to 172, and in the game they reached this total with around 5 or 6 minutes left in the game, and the game went over.
That little bit of value that you will miss occasionally is FAR OUTWEIGHED by the benefits of waiting. The reason is information. The longer you wait, the more information you obtain by watching the line to determine the sharp play.
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yysmer |
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#168 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:48:12 PM
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#169 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:50:55 PM
Guys, I'm a little long-winded sometimes, but needed to explain all of this anyways. There's actually some stuff I left out and will get deeper into it later, but it really is a good idea to wait until late to make your bets so you have as much information as possible.
Thanks for the good questions
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Donnie_Baseball |
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#170 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:53:02 PM |
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#171 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:54:53 PM
Good luck Czech.
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#172 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:58:43 PM
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#173 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:59:12 PM |
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#174 Posted: 5/7/2012 3:59:18 PM
1) There must be significant, progressive, directional line action in our direction.
Guys, time and again I'll watch a line move and figure out my sharp play, and then last-minute line action will go against me. This is always frustrating, because it makes the play a NO-PLAY. The reason is because I'm not gonna lie, these late moves confuse me. They could be sharp action, public adjustments, head fakes, etc.
The KEY to remember is the real sharp plays don't do this, and it's the real sharp plays that we're after. If a dog is a true sharp play, and the line moves on the dog, it's not going to get adjusted back up late.
Now, sometimes you'll like a side or total that is supported by line action, and then it will get disqualified late, and then you will watch the play hit. Damn! Or sometimes you will watch it lose. Phew! Doesn't matter. We're looking for sharp plays here, and on that basis we always follow Rule #1.
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#175 Posted: 5/7/2012 4:04:30 PM HumanCalculator, thanks for your opinion, but please read the entire thread. We are looking to follow sharp plays here and can't do that before we know what the sharp play is.
Take Chi under yesterday, it qualified but I got it at the worse price of 172.5, and it landed on 171. It was the right side though and a crazy last 2 minutes made it a sweat, but we still hit.
You don't see the total land inbetween too often, and when it does, well that's the sacrifice you make for being on the sharp side all of the time, instead of guessing all of the time.
If you don't think the system is producing enough winners to overcome this, then don't use it. So far it definitely IS though. |
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