|These are the WNBA lines I would put out if I am the linesmaker,...it is my relative strength of the teams, NOT a predictor of what the Las Vegas line will be. So far this year, when my lines have differentiated from Vegas', the public has bet most games toward my line.
Posted: 6/25/2017 4:05:53 PM
As I've mentioned in earlier posts, smart money has won in the W this year....if a line has moved >=1.5 from it's opener, those early bettors have profited, and even those that have gotten in at the end of the move have still made money on sides, but not totals.
If I am making lines that are more efficient than Vegas', then one should be able to make money betting the differential. I am not supposing that this will be the case going into the future, but so far in testing this out, this looks to be the case so far in the W. I've made jokes that they have the boss' idiot nephew making W lines this year, as perhaps it is a low priority for the linesmakers to put out sharp WNBA lines. Finding a niche market to profit in, in any endeavor that others have overlooked can be a way of improving your bottom line.
We'll continue tracking this, and it is also a way of stimulating others' (sometimes spirited) feedback and discussion.
Home team listed first
Washington -6 Seattle
Connecticut -3 Los Angeles
I doubt that Vegas will have the Sun as a favorite, but at a minimum they have performed equally well to the Sparks this year and probably they've been better.
Chicago -2 Indiana
Indiana falls apart on the road and the Sky, especially Dolson and Pondexter were NOT terrible their last game versus the Dream.
Washington pik New York
Connecticut -5 Seattle
I'll be very interested in the Liberty if they come a dog versus Washington, as the road is where they excel and I've soured on EDD being the saviour of the Mystic franchise. I'd take one Tina over two Della Donnes. Liberty is also getting some players back that will help them going forward.
The Sun will crush the Storm unless some kind of flu epidemic runs through the Sun team.
Atlanta +5- Los Angeles
Stars +1 Chicago
Phoenix +3 Minnesota
The Sparks got their revenge over the Fever in a similar situation to what this scenario playing the Dream. Playing the champs in this situation.
This is the Stars chance for a win this year....they blew it against the Sky last time in the exact same situation. I hate both of those teams....gun to my head, I'd just say, "shoot me".
Phoenix? the public and Vegas perception of them is soooo, so different than mine, the Lynx can sleepwalk through this game and it would be the battle of the sleepwalkers...the Lynx would still win.
Favorite early leans: Liberty, Sun (over Storm), Lynx, Sun over Sparks if Vegas gifts us a home underdog line.