WNBA lines June 27-30

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Author: [WNBA] Topic: WNBA lines June 27-30
Indigo999 PM Indigo999
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Posted: 6/25/2017 4:05:53 PM
These are the WNBA lines I would put out if I am the linesmaker,...it is my relative strength of the teams, NOT a predictor of what the Las Vegas line will be.  So far this year, when my lines have differentiated from Vegas', the public has bet most games toward my line.

As I've mentioned in earlier posts, smart money has won in the W this year....if a line has moved >=1.5 from it's opener, those early bettors have profited, and even those that have gotten in at the end of the move have still  made money on sides, but not totals.

If I am making lines that are more efficient than Vegas', then one should be able to make money betting the differential.  I am not supposing that this will be the case going into the future, but so far in testing this out, this looks to be the case so far in the W.  I've made jokes that they have the boss' idiot nephew making W lines this year, as perhaps it is a low priority for the linesmakers to put out sharp WNBA lines.  Finding a niche market to profit in, in any endeavor that others have overlooked can be a way of improving your bottom line. 

We'll continue tracking this, and it is also a way of stimulating others' (sometimes spirited) feedback and discussion.

Home team listed first

June 27

Washington -6   Seattle

Connecticut -3   Los Angeles

I doubt that Vegas will have the Sun as a favorite, but at a minimum they have performed equally well to the Sparks this year and probably they've been better.

June 28

Chicago -2    Indiana

Indiana falls apart on the road and the Sky, especially Dolson and Pondexter were NOT terrible their last game versus the Dream.

June 29

Washington pik   New York

Connecticut -5  Seattle

I'll be very interested in the Liberty if they come a dog versus Washington, as the road is where they excel and I've soured on EDD being the saviour of the Mystic franchise.  I'd take one Tina over two Della Donnes.  Liberty is also getting some players back that will help them going forward.

The Sun will crush the Storm unless some kind of flu epidemic runs through the Sun team.

June 30

Atlanta +5-   Los Angeles

Stars +1  Chicago

Phoenix +3 Minnesota

The Sparks got their revenge over the Fever in a similar situation to what this scenario  playing the Dream.   Playing the champs in this situation.  

This is the Stars chance for a win this year....they blew it against the Sky last time in the exact same situation.  I hate both of those teams....gun to my head, I'd just say, "shoot me".

Phoenix?  the public and Vegas perception of them is soooo, so different than mine, the Lynx can sleepwalk through this game and it would be the battle of the sleepwalkers...the Lynx would still win. 

Favorite early leans:  Liberty, Sun (over Storm), Lynx, Sun over Sparks if Vegas gifts us a home underdog line.


AussieDownUnder PM AussieDownUnder
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Posted: 6/25/2017 5:24:33 PM
The one line I am liking which I think it will, will be the Sun vs the Sparks. If the Sun lose this game right now vs the Wings,then I like them ever more in a few days time vs the Sparks. Fever were horrible 2H yesterday, no depth from their bench and allowed a 19-0 run in the 2H and thanks to coach of the century (Chatman), she did nothing to stop the run. Miller, different style of coach. Sparks missing Carson maybe next game as well. Agler has been playing this 8 girl rotation all season long which IMHO is terrible because he will burn them out towards the end of the season and now with Carson out, will he only use 7? He is only using this rookies and deep bench girls if its a blowout. Sun have the talent and depth to give it their all vs the Sparks. 
Indigo999 PM Indigo999
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Posted: 6/26/2017 2:01:01 PM
Openers for Tuesday's games with bet online, with my line in brackets.

Mystics -4 (-6)

Sun -1 (-3)

Would be nice to get both of these lines when they become generally available.  The lines change so much within a very short time of going online with 5D and pinnacle.  Early big leans to the home favorites.

Right now it is 4 pm Monday, eastern time in the USA...these probably won't become available for another 18 hours.

I'm still liking whoever's making these lines.  Any injuries or personnel changes chime in.
Indigo999 PM Indigo999
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Posted: 6/26/2017 7:11:06 PM
Betonline lines have changed....

Mystics -5 

Sun pik 

Sun may end up as dogs as the Sparks are -115......setting up nicely.
Acecooldog PM Acecooldog
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Posted: 6/27/2017 3:28:42 AM
I personally believe the Sparks will come out HOT and try to prove they are still dominate against the upstart Suns. If the Sparks play like they did against the Mercury, forget about it, crown them Champs. I'm leaning to betting over.

Many angels here. You got chose The upstart Suns or the old vets Sparks.....
Posted using a mobile device.
AussieDownUnder PM AussieDownUnder
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Posted: 6/27/2017 5:05:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Openers for Tuesday's games with bet online, with my line in brackets.

Mystics -4 (-6)

Sun -1 (-3)

Would be nice to get both of these lines when they become generally available.  The lines change so much within a very short time of going online with 5D and pinnacle.  Early big leans to the home favorites.

Right now it is 4 pm Monday, eastern time in the USA...these probably won't become available for another 18 hours.

I'm still liking whoever's making these lines.  Any injuries or personnel changes chime in.

No injuries I know of. One thing is for sure, the Seattle will be playing this early game (east coast) at their bodyclock time of 9am. They flew out of Seattle on Sunday though to try and get some needed sleep but their bodyclock might be out of whack a little for this game. 
Indigo999 PM Indigo999
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Posted: 6/27/2017 7:15:12 AM
We'll find out if the Storm are "morning people" or not.  I have a ton of queries favoring away dogs in June, re:Storm, so may pass this game by.

Not really enamoured with the Mystics this year.
Indigo999 PM Indigo999
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Posted: 6/27/2017 7:20:47 AM
Away non-conference dogs have been 57-36 ATS in June, including 6-3 ATS this season,..... the best days for this have been:

Tuesday   13-6 
Thursday   3-1
Sunday   17-10

I find these day and/or month differentials to often skip one day/month as they are here.
Indigo999 PM Indigo999
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Posted: 6/27/2017 7:23:59 AM
Good take on the game Acecool.....i find the Sparks to be too cool for school this year, so I'm not getting the same vibe as you....maybe they're saving it up for situations such as these.

Differing opinions are what make a market so we'll see.....I'm considering passing the card today.
Indigo999 PM Indigo999
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Posted: 6/27/2017 9:51:10 AM
STD:  -1.2 units

1)  Sun +2/ML +113

First off, I love the Sun and feel like they'll challenge the Lynx and the Sparks for supremacy for the foreseeable future.  Give them one year to go through the playoffs and then the sky is the limit for this team and don't forget they have two very, very good players that are out, one for the season with an achilles tear.  They are right now, better than the Sparks.  The Sparks don't have the "it" factor this year that they had last year...their defense is mediocre and Nneke Ogwumike and Candice Parker's games have fallen off.  How could Nneke repeat the season she had last year?...you are not going to shoot close to 70% every year, I'll tell you that.  They miss Kristi Tolliver's big three point shooting and they are about 4 or 5 points a game worse than they were last year.  That's not unusual, they had a storybook season last year and they'll not have the same intensity level as they had last year.....and it's showing.    This isn't the Warriors we're talking about here,...the talent is much more evenly divided in the W and of course the Sparks haven't inherited a tope 5 player in the world this year as the Golden State Warriors did.

The Sparks will be looking forward to avenging their loss to the Dream in Atlanta next up, and I don't think they will physically match up with the Sun or match their intensity.  I've played a half unit on the Sun at +2 and another half unit on them at +113.

2)  Storm +6/5-

June away dogs are the default play in the W....Tuesdays are one of the days that this does particularly well in June.  Teams on a down cycle as the Storm are have tended to play well as away non conference dogs, especially the first two months of the season.  We get a good line on this game where two teams are pretty even....we get the advantage of the public remembering the Storm losing at home to the Mercury while the Mystics were blowing out the hapless Sky....not many will remember that two games ago the Mystics walked into the Lynx' home court and got blasted, so we're getting at least a couple of extra points based on what transpired the last game for both of these teams.

If you've read my opinions earlier in this piece, you'll know that my initial reaction was to take the Mystics.....but,.....data rules for me, and when running my queries, I couldn't make a case for playing the Mystics, but found plenty to support a Storm play....and so it is.

I'm taking the points.

Good  fortune.
chignix PM chignix
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Posted: 6/27/2017 9:55:30 AM
Thank you Indigo, great reading 

Good luck.
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