Three games in the W...I've mentioned earlier that favorites have historically done well on Saturdays going 72-57 ATS @home, and 34-20 on the road.
On Sundays Home dogs have been 57-37 ATS and 102-99 ATS as away dogs. So evidently there's been profits in taking home dogs. Use it if you feel its relevant and fade if you think it is anomaly.
Here's my line estimations. For the most part, taking teams with more than a two point difference to my line would have been profitable. In other words if I have team A as a 5 point dog and they come an 8 point dog, then taking team A would have been profitable. It is very, very early in the season and in my analysis, I want to see the results after 100 games or so to see if there's validity and advantage in making my own lines. Plus writing this all out clarifies my thinking and promotes discussion among other intelligent handicappers. If my line is off, there are others here that will tell me, which has a chance to benefit both parties.
Bob Martin was THE early linesmaker for Las Vegas, and when reading about him, he is held in awe by the Vegas industry. He would make his lines, and then offer those lines to small amount of Vegas sharps to bet into. By doing so, the rough edges of the lines would be smoothed out and his lines would be adjusted by what other intelligent minds were thinking. He was a great linesmaker, but very savvy and humble at the same time to know he wouldn't always get it right and that the small amount of smart minds would correct things before the masses had a chance to bet. Better to make a small mistake than a big one, right?
So, on to the line estimations.
Dallas +9 Minnesota
It's getting to a point where some will play on Minny indiscriminately.....they are this year's juggernaut......the Lynx look unstoppable. The swing traders of the betting world will say it's time to start fading them. I find nothing overwhelming in my database for conference away favorites who are >500 versus an opponent that is <500......53-55 ATS....on Sundays that goes to 12-15 ATS.
If the away favorite won >20 games last and year the home dog won <20 games last year this moves to 19-26 ATS, so historically the percentage play has been the home dog.
Mystics -7.5 (with EDD)
Mystics -3 (without EDD)
You, me and everyone else will be surprised if Vegas offers a line for this game without knowing precisely if the great Donne is gonna play or not. Getting blown out without her last game will make linesmakers cautious.
When your opposition hits 11 threes and makes 53% of their shots it's not as if Della Donne would have made much difference versus the mighty Lynx.
I have some situations that favor the Fever, and I have amended my thoughts somewhat on them this year....they've played very well at home, we'll see if and when Vegas puts out a line on this game.
New York -5' Seattle
Revenge game for the LIberty who got beat in the last minute at Seattle earlier in the season as Sami Whitcomb went into a rarified zone that few will ever get to, to get the Storm the W.
LIberty have been great, Tina Charles has been great and Jewel Lloyd has been great. Breanna Stewart and the Storm will not stop Tina Charles, but perhaps they'll allow her to get hers and try to stop the rest of the team. Sugar Rogers has been mediocre as has Sue Bird this season. The rest of each team's starters have been exemplary, which makes this matchup interesting. Which team's role players will make the difference?
I have some very good situations that favor the Storm, though I don't like this matchup for them. We'll see if gut triumphs over left brain, or not.