When I first time look at speards my initial lean was Slovenia ATS (+25,5). Slovenia. It's crazy line, i'm gonna make some kind of BrutalJoe's Max play . I'm almost lock in it.
Want to hear MangJose, where R U mate? How was your plays after 4-0 start? Hope U continue winning
When I first time look at speards my initial lean was Slovenia ATS (+25,5). Slovenia. It's crazy line, i'm gonna make some kind of BrutalJoe's Max play . I'm almost lock in it.
Want to hear MangJose, where R U mate? How was your plays after 4-0 start? Hope U continue winning
Sup Slon. I'll share my thoughts; I do not think it will do any harm and it might generate some useful discussion. As a full disclaimer, I did ok in the group round but not so much in the round of 16.
USA-Slovenia: this is a clear mismatch, especially inside. Slovenia will have to rely on Dragic and 3-pointers. USA has been all over the map offensively but they picked up their defensive effort lately. Their problem with covering the spread is the garbage time crew: Rose, Plumlee, G@y and others. I think coach K chose them to be intentionally bad to avoid potential bickering over playing time. USA will probably get to a 30+ point lead in the 4Q, but then all bets are off due to their garbage time crew. I might play something at HT, but maybe not. Slovenia's garbage time crew is pretty bad too, I think; and I do not think Dragic will be playing late in the 4Q: he already has a big name and I do not think he will want to risk a meaningless injury. Maybe, just maybe I might put a little on under 1H.
Turkey-Lithuania: obviously a huge game. Both teams match up well enough, both teams struggle to score at times, especially from the perimeter; both teams like a deliberate pace and defend well enough. Under 1H looks interesting; maybe also Lithuania ATS but not sure about that one.
Spain-France: Spain destroyed France by 24 pts in group play; but that was a revenge game with France giving up in the 2H. I think they might be able to keep it closer this time; and with Diaw and Batum on the team, there is enough pride and experience in that group not to lose by 20+ pts again. And Spain looks like they do not like playing under pressure of big expectations. France +16 looks interesting.
Serbia-Brazil: Serbia is getting a lot of love after upsetting what turned out to be a spineless Greek squad (by the way all four teams from the Spain's group won their first playoff games !). But Brazil is not Greece; they have size and talent inside, they will likely have love from the refs too. Nobody cares about Serbia in FIBA; this is a small, relatively poor country, where bball is already very popular. On the other hand, getting a boost in Brazil will be huge for FIBA. Like Brazil -4.5.
Sup Slon. I'll share my thoughts; I do not think it will do any harm and it might generate some useful discussion. As a full disclaimer, I did ok in the group round but not so much in the round of 16.
USA-Slovenia: this is a clear mismatch, especially inside. Slovenia will have to rely on Dragic and 3-pointers. USA has been all over the map offensively but they picked up their defensive effort lately. Their problem with covering the spread is the garbage time crew: Rose, Plumlee, G@y and others. I think coach K chose them to be intentionally bad to avoid potential bickering over playing time. USA will probably get to a 30+ point lead in the 4Q, but then all bets are off due to their garbage time crew. I might play something at HT, but maybe not. Slovenia's garbage time crew is pretty bad too, I think; and I do not think Dragic will be playing late in the 4Q: he already has a big name and I do not think he will want to risk a meaningless injury. Maybe, just maybe I might put a little on under 1H.
Turkey-Lithuania: obviously a huge game. Both teams match up well enough, both teams struggle to score at times, especially from the perimeter; both teams like a deliberate pace and defend well enough. Under 1H looks interesting; maybe also Lithuania ATS but not sure about that one.
Spain-France: Spain destroyed France by 24 pts in group play; but that was a revenge game with France giving up in the 2H. I think they might be able to keep it closer this time; and with Diaw and Batum on the team, there is enough pride and experience in that group not to lose by 20+ pts again. And Spain looks like they do not like playing under pressure of big expectations. France +16 looks interesting.
Serbia-Brazil: Serbia is getting a lot of love after upsetting what turned out to be a spineless Greek squad (by the way all four teams from the Spain's group won their first playoff games !). But Brazil is not Greece; they have size and talent inside, they will likely have love from the refs too. Nobody cares about Serbia in FIBA; this is a small, relatively poor country, where bball is already very popular. On the other hand, getting a boost in Brazil will be huge for FIBA. Like Brazil -4.5.
Be careful about Serbia. They do not have any NBA stars (unlike Nene, Splitter, Barbosa, Varejao) but this is pretty strong team. All their men played in European bball grands. They know how to scores, they know how to slow down game temp. Maybe Brazil is a fav, but not for me - i'm stay far away from this game.
Turkey-Lithuania
Second game, that i do not want to play in. Turkey did a greate job in 1/8 - they were down by 5 with 40 seconds left in a 4q, and made two 3's in a row... Big upset for our buddy Aussie. Don't think fortune will give them one more chance - Lithuania ML is lean for me, but not play.
Spain-France
Spain covered in all 7 games so far - good signs to take France ATS (all streaks are come to end) - I'll probably make that play. Never the less as I said in one of my first topics - I'll be on Spain ATS vs USA team in Final game (Does anybody think we will not have such final? )
USA-Slovenia
1st: Lets be honest. USA is the best in bball, but not all best players from USA came to play in WC. They are Olympic champs, and WC is some kind of pre-season practice. And what we have on the other side? Every professional player want to play and show what he's got against the best team.
2d: Look at last two champs in 2010 and 2006. USA won Angola and NZ by 30+ pts in 1/8, and then were prett cold in 1/4. Good trend for me. I'm on Slovenia ATS (+25) 3 bags here
Be careful about Serbia. They do not have any NBA stars (unlike Nene, Splitter, Barbosa, Varejao) but this is pretty strong team. All their men played in European bball grands. They know how to scores, they know how to slow down game temp. Maybe Brazil is a fav, but not for me - i'm stay far away from this game.
Turkey-Lithuania
Second game, that i do not want to play in. Turkey did a greate job in 1/8 - they were down by 5 with 40 seconds left in a 4q, and made two 3's in a row... Big upset for our buddy Aussie. Don't think fortune will give them one more chance - Lithuania ML is lean for me, but not play.
Spain-France
Spain covered in all 7 games so far - good signs to take France ATS (all streaks are come to end) - I'll probably make that play. Never the less as I said in one of my first topics - I'll be on Spain ATS vs USA team in Final game (Does anybody think we will not have such final? )
USA-Slovenia
1st: Lets be honest. USA is the best in bball, but not all best players from USA came to play in WC. They are Olympic champs, and WC is some kind of pre-season practice. And what we have on the other side? Every professional player want to play and show what he's got against the best team.
2d: Look at last two champs in 2010 and 2006. USA won Angola and NZ by 30+ pts in 1/8, and then were prett cold in 1/4. Good trend for me. I'm on Slovenia ATS (+25) 3 bags here
Spain did not cover the last game against Senegal.
Serbia lost all three games against good teams in group play, and now after one upset they are suddenly treated as if they were a legit contender. We'll see.
Slovenia is putrid, especially if Dragic will not play in the garbage time; I think the fact they managed to score only 2 points in the 4Q of their most important game of the WC speaks for itself; and those two points came in only after the game was already decided, with about a minute left. I'd be careful with that play.
Yeah, I saw the ending of the Turkey-Oz game; that was a nice exploit but it does not negate the fact that Turks usually struggle to score from the perimeter. They typically score in the sixties and Lithuanians are not an offensive juggernaut either. Hence, I am leaning under 1H. Valancuinas will likely be canceled by Osik.
Spain did not cover the last game against Senegal.
Serbia lost all three games against good teams in group play, and now after one upset they are suddenly treated as if they were a legit contender. We'll see.
Slovenia is putrid, especially if Dragic will not play in the garbage time; I think the fact they managed to score only 2 points in the 4Q of their most important game of the WC speaks for itself; and those two points came in only after the game was already decided, with about a minute left. I'd be careful with that play.
Yeah, I saw the ending of the Turkey-Oz game; that was a nice exploit but it does not negate the fact that Turks usually struggle to score from the perimeter. They typically score in the sixties and Lithuanians are not an offensive juggernaut either. Hence, I am leaning under 1H. Valancuinas will likely be canceled by Osik.
Correct me if I wrong. As far as I remember Spain opened as 32pts fav against Senegal. I did not make any plays on 1/8 so I don't know final spread before tip-of, but initial spread was covers by 1 point :)
Never the less nice write up Ax! Really like it. Hope we both get money today (if U will decide to play your 1h under lean in Turkey-Lithuania game).
Correct me if I wrong. As far as I remember Spain opened as 32pts fav against Senegal. I did not make any plays on 1/8 so I don't know final spread before tip-of, but initial spread was covers by 1 point :)
Never the less nice write up Ax! Really like it. Hope we both get money today (if U will decide to play your 1h under lean in Turkey-Lithuania game).
I think Spain closed at 35-36 pts, about the same as USA vs Mexico. Both did not cover. Yeah, we'll see Slon. GL to you. I am a bit cagey going with under 71 1H in the Turkey game; all they need is a couple of treys to get over that pretty low number but I think I am gonna play percentages.
I think Spain closed at 35-36 pts, about the same as USA vs Mexico. Both did not cover. Yeah, we'll see Slon. GL to you. I am a bit cagey going with under 71 1H in the Turkey game; all they need is a couple of treys to get over that pretty low number but I think I am gonna play percentages.
Hey Slon! I passed today for FIBA. No play for me. I won during Croatia vs France-2.5. I went big with France. Then the other day i lost when I went with Lithuania and Australia but it was just a small play for me because i was not sure. So 5 wins for MAX plays and 2 losses for small plays.
Hey Slon! I passed today for FIBA. No play for me. I won during Croatia vs France-2.5. I went big with France. Then the other day i lost when I went with Lithuania and Australia but it was just a small play for me because i was not sure. So 5 wins for MAX plays and 2 losses for small plays.
Yeah, that 2H over lean was a mistake. I have never seen such a sorry as.s display of offense from both teams. A typical game between NYL and WSH looks like a game by Harlem Globetrotters compared that this sh.tfest.
Yeah, that 2H over lean was a mistake. I have never seen such a sorry as.s display of offense from both teams. A typical game between NYL and WSH looks like a game by Harlem Globetrotters compared that this sh.tfest.
The Turks are like 1-for-20 from the 3-point line, which is about 2ft closer to the basket than the NBA line. And a lot of those misses were open, corner shots. This is just pathetic.
The Turks are like 1-for-20 from the 3-point line, which is about 2ft closer to the basket than the NBA line. And a lot of those misses were open, corner shots. This is just pathetic.
Wow, 2H somehow trickled over. Good stuff in that game for me. Anyway, I got a small lean on Slovenia +13.5 & u84.5 1H. Let's hope team USA will start as slow as the Turks.
Wow, 2H somehow trickled over. Good stuff in that game for me. Anyway, I got a small lean on Slovenia +13.5 & u84.5 1H. Let's hope team USA will start as slow as the Turks.
Dam Ax, you follow every facet of basketball huh? I put a unit on Slovenia +14 1H so hopefully we both hit that. Also really like the under 170. If you hit your 1H plays you gonna do anything in the 2H?
Dam Ax, you follow every facet of basketball huh? I put a unit on Slovenia +14 1H so hopefully we both hit that. Also really like the under 170. If you hit your 1H plays you gonna do anything in the 2H?
Hey Slon! I passed today for FIBA. No play for me. I won during Croatia vs France-2.5. I went big with France. Then the other day i lost when I went with Lithuania and Australia but it was just a small play for me because i was not sure. So 5 wins for MAX plays and 2 losses for small plays.
I see. Good champ for U so far. Hope it will be better. Stay in touch, will be glad to see your leans.
Hey Slon! I passed today for FIBA. No play for me. I won during Croatia vs France-2.5. I went big with France. Then the other day i lost when I went with Lithuania and Australia but it was just a small play for me because i was not sure. So 5 wins for MAX plays and 2 losses for small plays.
I see. Good champ for U so far. Hope it will be better. Stay in touch, will be glad to see your leans.
Dam Ax, you follow every facet of basketball huh? I put a unit on Slovenia +14 1H so hopefully we both hit that. Also really like the under 170. If you hit your 1H plays you gonna do anything in the 2H?
I draw the line at NCAA and probably the beginning of the NBA reg. season drag. I really do not like games where players' motivation every night is a big question b/c those dudes have to play like 200 games every year.
I'll see what happens in the 1H before I decide anything on the 2H. GL to you.
Dam Ax, you follow every facet of basketball huh? I put a unit on Slovenia +14 1H so hopefully we both hit that. Also really like the under 170. If you hit your 1H plays you gonna do anything in the 2H?
I draw the line at NCAA and probably the beginning of the NBA reg. season drag. I really do not like games where players' motivation every night is a big question b/c those dudes have to play like 200 games every year.
I'll see what happens in the 1H before I decide anything on the 2H. GL to you.
Pretty sure Harden and Curry will shoot better then a combined 0-12 and I think USA comes out strong in the 3rd Quarter and opens up a DD lead. I'm thinking about betting USA -20.5 in game.
Pretty sure Harden and Curry will shoot better then a combined 0-12 and I think USA comes out strong in the 3rd Quarter and opens up a DD lead. I'm thinking about betting USA -20.5 in game.
Good cal outofcash. I did not play the 2h; I really do not like betting on games with 20+ pts spreads unless I see a clear angle, and team USA has been anything but consistent. Should've stayed away from the 1H as well. Still, a net positive day for me; I'll take it.
Good cal outofcash. I did not play the 2h; I really do not like betting on games with 20+ pts spreads unless I see a clear angle, and team USA has been anything but consistent. Should've stayed away from the 1H as well. Still, a net positive day for me; I'll take it.
Thanks Axion. I just thought USA played so poorly FH that they would come out strong SH. Didn't think it would end up as easy as it did but I will take it! Who do we like tomorrow? Any early leans?
Thanks Axion. I just thought USA played so poorly FH that they would come out strong SH. Didn't think it would end up as easy as it did but I will take it! Who do we like tomorrow? Any early leans?
WC is so difficult to predict, best is to wait to bet for 2nd half only, over in 2nd half, since they go low in 1st half, but still risky to bet in 1st half
WC is so difficult to predict, best is to wait to bet for 2nd half only, over in 2nd half, since they go low in 1st half, but still risky to bet in 1st half
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