Hello gentleman,
Hope we all had some good rest and looking at these 2 game 3's.
Wagers, I hope you are still with us buddy. That was a very tough beat on Blazers throughout the entire game.
CC - great call on Spurs. Their bench is just amazing. Their bench could be the starting 5 for most Eastern teams and lower Western Teams.
Well one play I like and im waiting for line movement is the over in Thunder @ Clippers. Its at 214.5 right now but I will hopefully get it a little bit lower than that as general consensus is showing under but I believe that it goes over.
Not sure about the spreads. Both away dogs are at +4 which as I stated yesterday, Is a little worrying to me.
This is my reasoning, check this out
1st Round:
Hawks @ Pacers:
Opening line for Hawks @ Pacers 4 games in Indy: Hawks around +7 or +8
When the game returned to Atlanta, the Hawks were always around +2 or +1.
So Vegas takes 3 points off Pacers and adds 3 to Hawks for H/C advantage giving us the difference of around 5-6 points..
Same again
Bobcats @ Heat: Bobcats opening lines around +10 - 11
Reverse game back in Charlotte, Heat were around +5 and biggest +8 (no Jefferson). So, once again, -3 off Heat and +3 for the Bobcats in Charlotte so around 6 points difference for the Cats at home.
Mavs @ Spurs: Mavs opening around+7 - 8
Reverse game back in Dallas, Mavs were around +2 - +3
Same again, 6 point difference.
Wizards @ Bulls: Wizards +4.5 almost every game.
Return game, Bulls +2.5 so again, around 6-7 for home court
Now we have Pacers @ Wizards and Thunder @ Clippers.
Wizards @ Pacers opened at +4.5 for Wizards, Now they are -4? 8 point differential because of Home court
Even worst, Thunder were -5.5 at home but are now +4 at LA, differential of 9.5 points
These lines seem fishy as and I think Vegas is trying to expose the whole zig zag theory and that both Clippers and Wizards are going to win these games easily.
These are the last time the Thunder was dogs on the road:
04.09.04 OKC +4 @ Clippers: Thunder won 107-101
04.04.14 OKC +2 @ Rockets: Rockets won 111-107 (OKC on B2B)
01.29.14 OKC +4 @ Heat: Thunder won 112-95
01.16.14 OKC +2.5 @ Rockets: Thunder won 104-92
01.04.14 OKC +2 @ Wolves: Thunder won 115-111
12.12.14 OKC +3.5 @ Spurs: Thunder won 113-100
I know play-offs are completing different to regular season but I don't believe that there is a +9.5 point differential between Clippers on the road and home to the Thunder.
Its the same with Pacers @ Wizards. I know the Pacers have been a different team since the ASG but sometimes when you have these 2 big teams you kinda think, is it worth taking the dogs.
Pacers as dogs of +2 or higher are 4-1 ATS. Hard to see when both Pacers and OKC are the higher seeds against both teams and they are dogs of +4. Seems fishy. Will finalise my plays after watching line movement if there is any.