I
made a couple smaller picks last time out but didn't really cap them
and tailed a few picks I saw from a couple trusted fight cappers from a
few different sites. But today I see a couple dogs and a fave parlay I think are worth playing.
The first pick for me is Yves Jabouin vs Eddie Wineland. I
do think that Wineland deserves to be the fave. But Jabouin is on the
rise and trains at the Tristar gym (G.S.P) which is one of the best
around and always seems to have their fighters prepared. And this is the
classic brawler vs finesse matchup so if Jabouin can weather the early
storm and stay away from Winelands attempts for the early knockout. I
think his skill and gameplan will show. And with Wineland (2-3 UFC and
last 5 overall being a very heavy -300 fave I think the value is on Jabouin who is 4-2 in the UFC and 4-1 last 5.
//////
The
2nd fight I like is Elkins vs Stephens. I do like what I've seen from
Stephens since he moved down to 145. But Elkins is no joke either and
although it may not make for the most exciting fight. I think he'd do
well to not ingage in a toe to toe battle with Stephens who has one
punch power. And instead Elkins should use a strong groung game to grind
out a decision.
////
For
my 3rd play I'll be parlaying a couple faves as well as playing Cerrone
S.U,albeit at the risky line of -210. I admit I am a huge Donald
Cerrone fan and love his style of fighting and great standup and kicks.
But I also believe that those attributes will pay dividends today
against a fighter that doesn't have the great striking. And I also like
the far greater level of competition and experience of the Cowboy. He is
a very strong 8-3 inside the octagon and has fought some very tough
dudes like Dennis Siver,Jermey Stephens,Nick Diaz,Melvin Guillard,Evan
Dunham and Anthony Pettis with the only loss in that group coming to the
Machine that is Anthony "SHOWTIME" Pettis
And
although Adriano Martins has a great 25-5 record. I really don't put a
ton of stock in guys records outside of the UFC. Yes he is 1-0 and could
have a great career but I don't see him making his name off Cerrone's
back.
The
partner for the parlay will be Stipe Miocic. I really like the way
Miocic stands in the pocket and unloads and he also has a great clinch
game should Gozaga try and take him down. And if this fight does stay
standing I give him the definite edge. And although it would probably be
to his advantage to take this fight to the mat. For better or worse
that doesn't always seem to happen with Gonzaga and it may be his
downfall tonight.
/////
In
the main event I'm again going with the dog. I may regret fading
Henderson cuz he is a beast. But I think his name recognition has this
line way higher than it should be.
Josh
Thompson is not nearly as well known as Henderson but he is on the rise
and with a win tonight should be a legit #1 contender. And actually he
was scheduled to fight Pettis for the title in December but Pettis back
out with an injury.
And
besides the fact I think Thomson is getting very little respect as far
as the line is concerned. Henderson is notorious for squeaking out close
decisions. He won his first 7 fights with the UCF but every one was a
decision and 2 of the last 3 of those were split.
///////
UFC:
(1)YVES JABOUIN +275 risking a half unit
(2)DARREN ELKINS -110 to win a half unit
(3)DONALD CERRONE -210 to win 1 unit
(4)CERRON -210 to MIOCIC -250 = +105 risking a half unit
(5)THOMSON to win by decision +550 risking 0.1 unit
I
made a couple smaller picks last time out but didn't really cap them
and tailed a few picks I saw from a couple trusted fight cappers from a
few different sites. But today I see a couple dogs and a fave parlay I think are worth playing.
The first pick for me is Yves Jabouin vs Eddie Wineland. I
do think that Wineland deserves to be the fave. But Jabouin is on the
rise and trains at the Tristar gym (G.S.P) which is one of the best
around and always seems to have their fighters prepared. And this is the
classic brawler vs finesse matchup so if Jabouin can weather the early
storm and stay away from Winelands attempts for the early knockout. I
think his skill and gameplan will show. And with Wineland (2-3 UFC and
last 5 overall being a very heavy -300 fave I think the value is on Jabouin who is 4-2 in the UFC and 4-1 last 5.
//////
The
2nd fight I like is Elkins vs Stephens. I do like what I've seen from
Stephens since he moved down to 145. But Elkins is no joke either and
although it may not make for the most exciting fight. I think he'd do
well to not ingage in a toe to toe battle with Stephens who has one
punch power. And instead Elkins should use a strong groung game to grind
out a decision.
////
For
my 3rd play I'll be parlaying a couple faves as well as playing Cerrone
S.U,albeit at the risky line of -210. I admit I am a huge Donald
Cerrone fan and love his style of fighting and great standup and kicks.
But I also believe that those attributes will pay dividends today
against a fighter that doesn't have the great striking. And I also like
the far greater level of competition and experience of the Cowboy. He is
a very strong 8-3 inside the octagon and has fought some very tough
dudes like Dennis Siver,Jermey Stephens,Nick Diaz,Melvin Guillard,Evan
Dunham and Anthony Pettis with the only loss in that group coming to the
Machine that is Anthony "SHOWTIME" Pettis
And
although Adriano Martins has a great 25-5 record. I really don't put a
ton of stock in guys records outside of the UFC. Yes he is 1-0 and could
have a great career but I don't see him making his name off Cerrone's
back.
The
partner for the parlay will be Stipe Miocic. I really like the way
Miocic stands in the pocket and unloads and he also has a great clinch
game should Gozaga try and take him down. And if this fight does stay
standing I give him the definite edge. And although it would probably be
to his advantage to take this fight to the mat. For better or worse
that doesn't always seem to happen with Gonzaga and it may be his
downfall tonight.
/////
In
the main event I'm again going with the dog. I may regret fading
Henderson cuz he is a beast. But I think his name recognition has this
line way higher than it should be.
Josh
Thompson is not nearly as well known as Henderson but he is on the rise
and with a win tonight should be a legit #1 contender. And actually he
was scheduled to fight Pettis for the title in December but Pettis back
out with an injury.
And
besides the fact I think Thomson is getting very little respect as far
as the line is concerned. Henderson is notorious for squeaking out close
decisions. He won his first 7 fights with the UCF but every one was a
decision and 2 of the last 3 of those were split.
///////
UFC:
(1)YVES JABOUIN +275 risking a half unit
(2)DARREN ELKINS -110 to win a half unit
(3)DONALD CERRONE -210 to win 1 unit
(4)CERRON -210 to MIOCIC -250 = +105 risking a half unit
(5)THOMSON to win by decision +550 risking 0.1 unit
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