Hope everyone had a Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas......Looking to start my New Years partying a little early this year with a couple LARGE cashes Saturday night.
Silva and Barnett will be my "make or break" plays of night as have them both very large.
For me this is just a reply of the Silva Sonnen battle ..... a focused and inspired Anderson Silva is the best fighter in the world, a bored Anderson Silva is very beatable. By all accounts I am hearing and seeing we are going to see the best Anderson Silva we have ever seen tomorrow night. I think that will be plenty good enough to beat Weidman.
Barnett .... this is a huge mismatch in my opinion, will be my biggest play of night. Barring a 1 punch type ko or huge upset I don't see any way Browne can hang with Barnett.
Miller ... couple small plays, not thrilled with price but expect Miller to win easily.
Poirier / Brandao this WAS one of my largest plays of the night on Poirier prior to the weigh ins. I am kind of shocked the line has moved up on Porier since the weigh in. With Brandao missed weight by ultimately 5 pounds (final weigh in). While this will code Brandao some serious $$$ and potentially a contract I do think this gives him a better chance of winning the fight. To only be 5-7 pounds off and not be weakened by the appropriate weight cut I expect to see a stronger equally as in fit Brandao. He actually looked great physically in weigh in which makes me wonder if additional muscle could account for the weight and potentially "juicing" issues may present themselves in the post fight drug tests. Only time will tell but I have used the line movement to lay off roughly half of my original play on Poirier.
Small plays on HALL .... I am a big Leban fan but this is a horrible match up for Chris and almost tailor made for Hall.
Small play on Johnson .... live dog in my opinion, probably should be small favorite.
Small play on Tate .... don't ask my why I have no reason other than +750 on Tate was just to much to pass up.
Best of luck to everyone on their cards and plays......
Have a SAFE and HAPPY NEW YEARS !!!!! .... will be on and off most of Saturday for questions
Hope everyone had a Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas......Looking to start my New Years partying a little early this year with a couple LARGE cashes Saturday night.
Silva and Barnett will be my "make or break" plays of night as have them both very large.
For me this is just a reply of the Silva Sonnen battle ..... a focused and inspired Anderson Silva is the best fighter in the world, a bored Anderson Silva is very beatable. By all accounts I am hearing and seeing we are going to see the best Anderson Silva we have ever seen tomorrow night. I think that will be plenty good enough to beat Weidman.
Barnett .... this is a huge mismatch in my opinion, will be my biggest play of night. Barring a 1 punch type ko or huge upset I don't see any way Browne can hang with Barnett.
Miller ... couple small plays, not thrilled with price but expect Miller to win easily.
Poirier / Brandao this WAS one of my largest plays of the night on Poirier prior to the weigh ins. I am kind of shocked the line has moved up on Porier since the weigh in. With Brandao missed weight by ultimately 5 pounds (final weigh in). While this will code Brandao some serious $$$ and potentially a contract I do think this gives him a better chance of winning the fight. To only be 5-7 pounds off and not be weakened by the appropriate weight cut I expect to see a stronger equally as in fit Brandao. He actually looked great physically in weigh in which makes me wonder if additional muscle could account for the weight and potentially "juicing" issues may present themselves in the post fight drug tests. Only time will tell but I have used the line movement to lay off roughly half of my original play on Poirier.
Small plays on HALL .... I am a big Leban fan but this is a horrible match up for Chris and almost tailor made for Hall.
Small play on Johnson .... live dog in my opinion, probably should be small favorite.
Small play on Tate .... don't ask my why I have no reason other than +750 on Tate was just to much to pass up.
Best of luck to everyone on their cards and plays......
Have a SAFE and HAPPY NEW YEARS !!!!! .... will be on and off most of Saturday for questions
I just think Johnson may have finally put it all together and will dump the "inconsistent" tab........He looked so good against Lauzon I just don't see how he can regress that significantly against Tibau. This fight to me is pretty basic, if he stays on his feet Johnson wins easily, if it goes to the groud Tibau grinds out a pretty easy win. Based on what I have been told from camps I like Johnson's chances of keeping this one standing. I may just be buying the hype though which is why it falls into a small play.
For what it's worth I have some peers that are also writers that are all over Peralta Voelker and Siver as pretty large plays. I am sure I will join them for a little of a play. As you know I usually play more dogs than favs but I am finding myself littered with chalk on this card. Not a position I am used to being in. Will have to figure out how I am going to manage and what play amounts will be on earlier part of the card.
I just think Johnson may have finally put it all together and will dump the "inconsistent" tab........He looked so good against Lauzon I just don't see how he can regress that significantly against Tibau. This fight to me is pretty basic, if he stays on his feet Johnson wins easily, if it goes to the groud Tibau grinds out a pretty easy win. Based on what I have been told from camps I like Johnson's chances of keeping this one standing. I may just be buying the hype though which is why it falls into a small play.
For what it's worth I have some peers that are also writers that are all over Peralta Voelker and Siver as pretty large plays. I am sure I will join them for a little of a play. As you know I usually play more dogs than favs but I am finding myself littered with chalk on this card. Not a position I am used to being in. Will have to figure out how I am going to manage and what play amounts will be on earlier part of the card.
Totally agree with your thoughts on brandao missing weight, I actually thought about playing him when I saw the +220. I love Barnett too, I think he's going to wear Browne down pretty quick and he'll have nothing for him. Good luck on the big card
Totally agree with your thoughts on brandao missing weight, I actually thought about playing him when I saw the +220. I love Barnett too, I think he's going to wear Browne down pretty quick and he'll have nothing for him. Good luck on the big card
Record of fighters after missing weight is 7-13 last 20 times it happened. Reason that is a little misleading is a number of those were guys taking fights as last minute replacements where people knew going in they were going to struggle to make weight in first place. What also makes this a little different is that he missed by such a large number, when a fighter misses by 1-3 pounds they are dehydrated exhausted and tail didn't get to the number. The fact he lost another 2.5 pounds within a hour of original weigh in tells me he wasn't that exhausted or dehydrated and plenty left to give. I think this is an indication he really just didn't give an effort to make the weight. This 99% of the time hurts during the fight badly I am just not sure this isn't the 1% that it may help, hence me laying off a large piece of what was going to be a larger play for me. Typical people jump on a line against a fighter that misses weight which is obviously what happened here as well as line has spiked quite a bit. I would just be careful with this one. He looked in amazing shape and I don't think the scale is telling the whole story.
Record of fighters after missing weight is 7-13 last 20 times it happened. Reason that is a little misleading is a number of those were guys taking fights as last minute replacements where people knew going in they were going to struggle to make weight in first place. What also makes this a little different is that he missed by such a large number, when a fighter misses by 1-3 pounds they are dehydrated exhausted and tail didn't get to the number. The fact he lost another 2.5 pounds within a hour of original weigh in tells me he wasn't that exhausted or dehydrated and plenty left to give. I think this is an indication he really just didn't give an effort to make the weight. This 99% of the time hurts during the fight badly I am just not sure this isn't the 1% that it may help, hence me laying off a large piece of what was going to be a larger play for me. Typical people jump on a line against a fighter that misses weight which is obviously what happened here as well as line has spiked quite a bit. I would just be careful with this one. He looked in amazing shape and I don't think the scale is telling the whole story.
What is ever more strange is team brandao then tweeting last night he made weight during the 2nd weigh in (which was ridiculously late) and he weighed in at 151.5 ..... The whole thing is just odd. I guarantee you this there is some sort of circumstances behind it cause he only got fined 25% of his purse which is small for a guy that misses by 7 pounds. So there is something the commission bought into a little bit. Whole thing is just to weird for my liking.
What is ever more strange is team brandao then tweeting last night he made weight during the 2nd weigh in (which was ridiculously late) and he weighed in at 151.5 ..... The whole thing is just odd. I guarantee you this there is some sort of circumstances behind it cause he only got fined 25% of his purse which is small for a guy that misses by 7 pounds. So there is something the commission bought into a little bit. Whole thing is just to weird for my liking.
Sorry for all typos and spelling errors.... Sending from my phone at breakfast this am, damn spell check on iPhone. Enjoy what should be an amazing card tonight!!!
Sorry for all typos and spelling errors.... Sending from my phone at breakfast this am, damn spell check on iPhone. Enjoy what should be an amazing card tonight!!!
I couldn't pass up Tate at +700 either. My hope is MT can survive the first round and hope RR turns back into a pumpkin at the 5:01 mark of the fight. Also like Johnson as a dog and Miller as parlay fodder. GL
I couldn't pass up Tate at +700 either. My hope is MT can survive the first round and hope RR turns back into a pumpkin at the 5:01 mark of the fight. Also like Johnson as a dog and Miller as parlay fodder. GL
Thank you sir..... I will tell you this place has a different 1000% electric feel tonight. It is literally like the big cards of a few years ago. Fight night in vegas over the past year has lost a little of it's electricity and anticipation. Just being around the casino and people today it is very different. I would expect to see a significantly larger crowd for the early fights tonight and a bonkers main event.
Thank you sir..... I will tell you this place has a different 1000% electric feel tonight. It is literally like the big cards of a few years ago. Fight night in vegas over the past year has lost a little of it's electricity and anticipation. Just being around the casino and people today it is very different. I would expect to see a significantly larger crowd for the early fights tonight and a bonkers main event.
I have NEVER had this much chalk in my life but I finalized the card and am playing ......
Paralta - 2 units
Voelker - 2 units
Siver - 2 units
Hall - 4 units
Poirier - 2 units (layed 1/2 of play off after weigh in)
Miller - 4 units
Barnett - 8 units (Ton of late money coming in on Browne) Line down to -140 at a couple places. I will double up and play 12-16 units depending on earlier fights outcome.
I have NEVER had this much chalk in my life but I finalized the card and am playing ......
Paralta - 2 units
Voelker - 2 units
Siver - 2 units
Hall - 4 units
Poirier - 2 units (layed 1/2 of play off after weigh in)
Miller - 4 units
Barnett - 8 units (Ton of late money coming in on Browne) Line down to -140 at a couple places. I will double up and play 12-16 units depending on earlier fights outcome.
Like the plays refer. On allot of the same fights as I love Siver & Barnett the most. Only difference I am leaning towards Weidman in the main event. Best of luck & thanks to you and few other regulars for making me interested in the forum.
Like the plays refer. On allot of the same fights as I love Siver & Barnett the most. Only difference I am leaning towards Weidman in the main event. Best of luck & thanks to you and few other regulars for making me interested in the forum.
Damn Chalk and bet sizing ..... 6-2 on night (excluding Tate, that was just a flyer because of line) and basically even because of chalk and bet sizing
Damn Chalk and bet sizing ..... 6-2 on night (excluding Tate, that was just a flyer because of line) and basically even because of chalk and bet sizing
Why is everyone always booing Rousey? I am definitely not a fan of hers but she does win.
She has been nothing but a total B I T C H to Tate. After Rousey just submitted her Tate tried to shake her hand and Rousey just turned her back and walked away from her.
Tate said some pretty nasty stuff about Rousey and family but at some point you have to at least shake a hand and acknowledge respect for the compeition. That is why they are all over Rousey tonight, she has totally disrespected Tate through all the build up and fight.
Usually when you see that they at least bury the hatchet when fight is over......Rhonda won't do that.
Why is everyone always booing Rousey? I am definitely not a fan of hers but she does win.
She has been nothing but a total B I T C H to Tate. After Rousey just submitted her Tate tried to shake her hand and Rousey just turned her back and walked away from her.
Tate said some pretty nasty stuff about Rousey and family but at some point you have to at least shake a hand and acknowledge respect for the compeition. That is why they are all over Rousey tonight, she has totally disrespected Tate through all the build up and fight.
Usually when you see that they at least bury the hatchet when fight is over......Rhonda won't do that.
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