UFC 161: Evans vs. Henderson Predictions and Plays

Predictions:
Last Event: 10 - 2
YTD: 82 - 46
2012: 111 - 56

Plays:
Last Event: +6.5% on posted plays
YTD: +21.5% on posted plays

Dan Henderson   vs.   Rashad Evans  
Main Event | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

This is a tough fight to cap, both men are coming off Loses, Rashahd's lose was much more uglier than Henderson's however. Rashad has two loses in a row and will be looking to secure the win here or he drops to 3 in a row and that is never a good thing in the UFC.

The striking is somewhat even with a slight edge in technical proficiency to Rashad and knockout power goes to Henderson obviously. While Henderson loves to hunt for the over hand right, and uses it more often that most of his other strikes, contrary to popular belief it's not his only strike. He throws decent combinations, has a decent jab and throws viscous uppercuts. Rashad throws more kicks so he is over-all a little more diverse, he also probably holds an edge in cardio over Henderson but this is mostly due to Henderson age. Henderson has not (as far as I can remember) had cardio issues in the past and about a year ago went 5 VERY hard rounds against Shogun, so I think his "cardio problems" are a bit over-stated, but then again the guy is 42.

The wrestling department is also tough to cap. I've said it before, Rashad is one of the best in the UFC at setting up his middle of the cage take-downs with his strikes, he changes levels instantly which makes his shot hard to stop. If Rashad wants to take this to the ground it will have to be in the middle of the cage, with perfect timing on a power double, anything less gives Henderson time to adjust and get his balance, a single leg won't cut it and forget about clinching with Henderson that's all I'll say about that. Sheilds showed that with excellent timing and good technique on the power double Henderson is susceptible to double legs in the middle of the cage ( I still maintain Henderson's back was fucked for that fight but that is neither here nor there).

Prediction - This fight could play out a number of different ways which makes it incredibly tough to read. If the Rashad who fought lil nog shows up he gets blasted into his third lose, I can't help but think he stays away from Henderson's power and ecks out a decision, possibly stealing it in the later rounds. It hurts to pick against my boy Henderson, but let's go Rashad via split decision.

Roy Nelson   vs.  Stipe Miocic
Co-Main Event | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

Roy: 19-7 | 6'0 | 73" reach   
Stipe: 9-1 |  6'4 |  80" reach  

I like Roy in this fight. His gas tank and chin should hold up longer than Miocic's. Miocic might be a better wrestler but Nelson is better on the ground, he has the skills to possibly reverse or just get back to his feet. Nelson is almost always the smaller man fighting at heavyweight, good footwork and a tight in and out kickboxing strategy is the way to De-rail the Nelson train, I just don't think Nelson always Miocic to pull that game-plan off.

Prediction - Miocic has his moments early on, possibly even stunning the iron chin'd Nelson, Miocic gasses in the 2nd and Big Country finds a home for that right hand. Nelson via TKO punches late in round 2.

Rashad vs Hendo Is a hard pick and going to be a good fight. Rashad is coming off two losses and Hendo is coming off of a decision loss vs Machida. I can see it finishing 2 ways, but I think it depends on what Rashad shows up. If Rashad has a good game plan he can outpoint Hendo and get a decision. But Hendo might catch him with the H-bomb before it reaches the over. This should be a good fight. 

Ryan Jimmo   vs.   Igor Pokrajac  
Main Card | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

I don't really like either of these fighters, Jimmo still has not impressed him, yes he is fast and hits hard and throws decent kicks, he has a good clinch that usually allows him to keep it on the feet. Pokrajac on the other hand is more of a wrestle boxer than a kick boxer, Pokrajac is probably more technical with his hands but he doesn't throw a lot of kicks and will probably be quite a bit slower than Jimmo. I'm not really sure who has the better cardio. I won't be playing Jimmo at -250, that is a bit step when I feel Pokrajac has a few outs in this fight. Screw it, I hate Jimmo.

Prediction - Pokrajac via grinding decision.

Pokrajac has some good boxing, and decent wrestling & likes to use the clinch (against Maldonado) and I cam see him grinding out a decision. Pokrajac can take some shots, but he has been finished before. They are both coming off loses, and we'll see how Jimmo rebounds now that his 17 fight win streak was broken. Im hoping Jimmo comes back stronger & hungrier. 

Alexis Davis   vs.   Rosi Sexton  
Main Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

ugh, main card, really? I guess I'll go with the Canadian, never seen these two fight, hopefully it's a good one.

Prediction - Davis via submission.

Pat Barry   vs.   Shawn Jordan
Main Card | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

I still don't have a good read on Shawn Jordan yet, I've only seen him fight a few times. We pretty much know we're getting from Pat Barry at this point, really good kick boxing, below average ground game and almost no offensive wrestling to speak of. However his defensive wrestling is not terrible and his short, stocky frame and low center of gravity make him somewhat difficult to take-down. I want to pick Barry but Jordan should win as long as Greg Jackson has a game plan of clinching and take-downs, striking with Barry for any extended amount of time is not a good idea. I guess I'll go with Shawn Jordan but would not be surprised to see Barry stuff a few take-downs to land what he needs to finish the fight. Actually a pretty tough fight to cap because I don't have the best read on Shawn Jordan's take-downs VS. Pat Barry's take-down defense. Oh well.

Prediction - Shawn Jordan via submission round 2.

nelson doesn't win fights win they go to the cards nor does he ko people after the first round.

I think the former golden gloves winner stays away from the right hand and wins a decision here.

Roy only has three KOs/TKO's after the first round.  He's lost every fight that has gone the distance in the UFC. I think Miocic would try to stand with Roy and end up getting caught. But he does have a decent chin. So we'll wait and see what happens Saturday. Im hoping they stand & bang.

Jake Shields   vs.   Tyron Woodley
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Shields at +150? Sign me up. Woodley might be little over hyped/juiced from his dominant win over a past his prime Hieron, so I'm not buying it yet. He'll have a chance to prove me wrong on Saturday. I think Shields can outstrike and out wrestle Woodley and Jake is light years ahead in terms of submission offense and defense.

Prediction - Shields via submission late in the third. Guillotine.

Shield has impressed me when I least expected it. I didnt expect him to takedown & control Hendo the way he did. His ground control is one of the best in his division, but I think his stand-up game is below average for his division. But he has proved me wrong before, & he might do it again this Saturday. But I still think Woodley can avoid the takedown & outbox Shields. Im kind of suprised at the lines & how much of a dog Shields is. There is a lot of hype behind him, Shields might derail tge hype train.

I think shields is on his way out, he hasnt looked impressive in the UFC. I've been impressed with Woodley, but it seems like everytime I go against Shield he ends up winning. If you look at my picks I also got Woodley 1st rd. But i am a little surprised how much of a underdog Shield is due to his past victories over some big names. But I do not think he's the same fighter anymore & I think he's on his way out. Woodley TKO rd 1. But im hoping im not jumping on the Woodley train too soon.

most of jakes big wins have come at 185.

 hes 34-year-olds,  flip-flopping weight classes and coming off a steroid suspension.

I am due for a poor event so I could be fade material, I won't lie I am having trouble capping a lot of these fights, might stay away and save my money -_-

Sam Stout   vs.   James Krause  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Krause is coming in on short notice, he could give Stout trouble with his height and length, I don't know much about Krause but I'll still pick Stout fighting at home.

Prediction - Stout via split decision. 

[Quote: Originally Posted by crowat] I am due for a poor event so I could be fade material,

 

Me too!.... Hope its not Nelson for my sake!

Good luck crowat (if you play anything) 

Posting very late, almost forgot to get these last picks up. No posted plays for me on this card.

Sean Pierson   vs.   Kenny Robertson  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Prediction - Robertson via UD.


Edwin Figueroa   vs.   Roland Delorme  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Both these guys are coming off KO loses to the same man. Fransico Rivera. Delorme is probably better on the ground, I'm not sure he is a straight up better wrestler than Figueroa. I'll go with Figuueroa via being a little bit better everywhere save for maybe submissions i'm thinking, I could be wrong though.

Prediction - Figueroa via TKO round three.

John Maguire   vs.   Mitch Clarke  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Maguire shuld be able to hold his own in the wrestling department, then at some point latch on a submisson.

Prediction - maguire via RNC round 2.

Dustin Pague   vs.   Yves Jabouin  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

I always seem to pick the first fight on the card wrong. Jabouin is smaller but I think quite a bit better, Dustin has average kickboxing and submissions, decent cardio but lacks any kind of wrestling pedigree. I think Jabouin can stay away from the sub here and take a UD or possible late TKO.

Prediction - Jabouin via TKO round 3.