Posted:
#1
My two safe plays for Saturday are Rory MacDonald and Ben Henderson. I like some of the under card fights but not as much as these two. I like Gustafsson as much as the next guy but why risk your money when there's a realistic chance Shogun lands a knock out? Yeah he gassed against Vera but his hands are bricks. It's enough of a risk that I'll stay away.
Rory is faster, stronger, younger, longer, and has a more dynamic attack. Everybody likes Penn's boxing and it seems that people seem to give him some kind of edge in the stand up. Not sure what people are smoking here. Rory has good striking and a 6.5 inch reach advantage. Anyone can knock out anyone, Cung Le can hit Franklin with a short shot and put him out cold... but is that what you want to bank on?
The more likely situation is that Rory stays out of the small pocket of range that BJ has to hit him hard. Rory mixes up his strikes and has good movement. His youth and conditioning guarantee he has the edge in head and foot movement. When was the last time BJ knocked someone cold before Hughes? Rory has the advantage standing in every way but close/mid range boxing. This standing advantage translates to what will be a dominate ground performance for Rory.
Rory will have his way with BJ in a GSP like fashion when it comes to take downs. The young dynamo mixes up strikes, feints, changes levels, executes good foot work, and shoots at the right times. Once BJ is on his back he has no chance. People like to bring up BJ's jits pedigree but when is the last time he submitted someone with it? When was the last time he got a sub off his back in MMA?
I don't question BJ's jits, he's a beast, but it's not reasonable to expect him to pull out a sub off his back when a bigger and stronger wrestler is on top smothering you. A legend like BJ coming back from retirement to fight a young gunner like Rory IS a big statement. To me it DOES show that he's game and ready to take things seriously, but it's just too late. We've always known BJ to be lazy, an ambitious and motivated Rory MacDonald is a terrible match up for BJ's return. Rory scores the TKO and at the very worst takes a one sided unanimous decision.
For the main event we have Diaz as the longer fighter with three inches in height and six inches in reach. The problem here is Diaz's lack of power. Diaz's pitter patter boxing style could earn him a decision if Benson had to be cautious of a KO. The truth is he doesn't, and he moves in/out of the pocket with amazing speed. Taking a shot or two to get in and land one of your own is typically a losing affair. This time it should get Henderson the W.
Henderson has a diverse set of attacks. That isn't to say Diaz doesn't, he could throw kicks and mix things up if he wanted to, but he won't. Both men will fight intelligently and maintain good movement around the cage, but every exchange will be in Henderson's favor - that is at least in terms of damage. That may not be an issue off the bat and Diaz might look good at first, but it will surely catch up to Diaz in a 5 round war.
On the ground Diaz has absolutely slick submissions and a lethal guillotine to boot. It won't be surprising if Henderson elects to keep the fight standing to avoid Nate's ground game, and HE will be the one that dictates if the fight stands or lays. If it does go to the ground however I still see Benson having the advantage. This isn't a BJJ match, this is MMA, and a dominate powerful wrestler like Henderson is no fun. Henderson will be able to maintain top control and smother Diaz. He clearly won't have his way with transitions but will be able to pin Nate down and get some G and P in if he wants to. More importantly however Benson will have an easy time standing back up if he's on the ground, and that is absolutely huge.
Expect a unanimous decision as both men are difficult to stop and have excellent conditioning. The UD goes in favor of the stronger and quicker Benson Henderson.
Rory is faster, stronger, younger, longer, and has a more dynamic attack. Everybody likes Penn's boxing and it seems that people seem to give him some kind of edge in the stand up. Not sure what people are smoking here. Rory has good striking and a 6.5 inch reach advantage. Anyone can knock out anyone, Cung Le can hit Franklin with a short shot and put him out cold... but is that what you want to bank on?
The more likely situation is that Rory stays out of the small pocket of range that BJ has to hit him hard. Rory mixes up his strikes and has good movement. His youth and conditioning guarantee he has the edge in head and foot movement. When was the last time BJ knocked someone cold before Hughes? Rory has the advantage standing in every way but close/mid range boxing. This standing advantage translates to what will be a dominate ground performance for Rory.
Rory will have his way with BJ in a GSP like fashion when it comes to take downs. The young dynamo mixes up strikes, feints, changes levels, executes good foot work, and shoots at the right times. Once BJ is on his back he has no chance. People like to bring up BJ's jits pedigree but when is the last time he submitted someone with it? When was the last time he got a sub off his back in MMA?
I don't question BJ's jits, he's a beast, but it's not reasonable to expect him to pull out a sub off his back when a bigger and stronger wrestler is on top smothering you. A legend like BJ coming back from retirement to fight a young gunner like Rory IS a big statement. To me it DOES show that he's game and ready to take things seriously, but it's just too late. We've always known BJ to be lazy, an ambitious and motivated Rory MacDonald is a terrible match up for BJ's return. Rory scores the TKO and at the very worst takes a one sided unanimous decision.
For the main event we have Diaz as the longer fighter with three inches in height and six inches in reach. The problem here is Diaz's lack of power. Diaz's pitter patter boxing style could earn him a decision if Benson had to be cautious of a KO. The truth is he doesn't, and he moves in/out of the pocket with amazing speed. Taking a shot or two to get in and land one of your own is typically a losing affair. This time it should get Henderson the W.
Henderson has a diverse set of attacks. That isn't to say Diaz doesn't, he could throw kicks and mix things up if he wanted to, but he won't. Both men will fight intelligently and maintain good movement around the cage, but every exchange will be in Henderson's favor - that is at least in terms of damage. That may not be an issue off the bat and Diaz might look good at first, but it will surely catch up to Diaz in a 5 round war.
On the ground Diaz has absolutely slick submissions and a lethal guillotine to boot. It won't be surprising if Henderson elects to keep the fight standing to avoid Nate's ground game, and HE will be the one that dictates if the fight stands or lays. If it does go to the ground however I still see Benson having the advantage. This isn't a BJJ match, this is MMA, and a dominate powerful wrestler like Henderson is no fun. Henderson will be able to maintain top control and smother Diaz. He clearly won't have his way with transitions but will be able to pin Nate down and get some G and P in if he wants to. More importantly however Benson will have an easy time standing back up if he's on the ground, and that is absolutely huge.
Expect a unanimous decision as both men are difficult to stop and have excellent conditioning. The UD goes in favor of the stronger and quicker Benson Henderson.
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