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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC on FX 5
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:13:36 PM

A few prelim thoughts:

Silva/Browne - I love Browne. Silva has won with his size in the past, and his strength and size won't be an advantage here. Browne has displayed skill on the ground and on the feet, and his speed will be the key vs a slow and prodding Bigfoot

Ellenberger/Hieron - Ellenberger stock has gone down recently, in my books. He should outclass Hieron, but I'm not too excited laying -300 or more on Jake. I think his gas tank is still a question mark, and I think Hieron can possibly win this fight late, or by decision, if he can withstand a couple early barrages

Neer/Edwards - I love Neer. He's aggressive and he's a finisher. He was not doing too badly vs Pyle before he got KOd.Neer's standup is not very good, but he hits hard. And he's pretty saavy on the ground, so I think he's better all around. I expect Edwards to get finished for the first time

Tavares/Hallman - Hallman's only key to winning seems to be ground control and sub - I think Taveares will be stronger, and will dictate the fight stands, and he TKOs a tired Hallman.

Castillo/Johnson - castillo is boring and not very skilled. Johnson has been steadily improving. Leaning Johnson

Volkmann/Roller - the wrestling should cancel each other out. Volkmann's standup is terrible, so I think Roller has that edge and he wins a decision

Stephens/Edwards - not sure about this one yet. Should be a good close. interested to see how the odds come out

Nunes/Bart - Nunes is a stud in his prime. Bart is not. Nunes finds a way to win, even if he has to drag it to decision

Pierce/Simpson - defintely a decision. probably another split. flip a coin, or take the underdog

Prater/Levasseur - not sure yet, but I would lean Prater. Prater recently lost to Grant and Silva, which is not a real knock against your record

Dodson/eyon... - dodson by decision???

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MR219 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#2
Posted: 10/2/2012 11:45:23 PM
I think a lot of your thoughts are bang on...

I am pretty sure Stephens is going to be a significant fav over Yves Edwards (at least -250, if not higher)

Prater is absolutely dreadful!  I think Levasseur is still a top prospect, will shake off the octagon jitters loss to McKenzie, and make a strong showing of himself.
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#3
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:55:44 AM
Yikes! I hope Stephens isn't that high. Was thinking about getting action on him too.
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#4
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:58:02 AM

Simpson vs. Pierce

Wrestler vs. Wrestler with better hands and a better chin.

Pierce all day.

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#5
Posted: 10/3/2012 2:05:01 AM
I think Bigfoot is outta his league, the pierce Simpson fight should be a great one to watch!
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#6
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:11:14 AM
I realized shortly after I screwed up the Dodson and flyweight matchups.

Cider, I don't think pierce all day at all. Simpson will be bigger don't forget He is also very good at cage control. I'm def not picking Simpson but I think it will be a boring cage grapple with not a lot of action
Mr, I didn't think prater was that bad. I thought he was decently well rounded. You know more than me though. I know you've had your watch on levesseur
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#7
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:48:18 AM
I like most all your leans.

I like Volkmann to win, but we will see what the odds are.  But I think he has better wrestling and is more relentless.  Better cardio as well.  But if Roller is a decent dog sure that may be the bet.  I would expect Volkmann to be -140 or more. 


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#8
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:00:24 AM
Surprised more odds aren't out with fights in 2 days
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#9
Posted: 10/3/2012 1:49:20 PM
MR. Bang on with Stephens odds

Neer steeper than I thought. At -340

I'm liking a nunes neer parlay

I like Simpson at +200. By deciosn would b even better.
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#10
Posted: 10/4/2012 9:19:18 AM
Johnson -150 $80 wins $53

Neer(300)/nunes(190) $150 wins $156
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#11
Posted: 10/4/2012 5:38:52 PM
Hallman should be cut. Total BS!
Not even close for the 2nd time
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#12
Posted: 10/4/2012 5:51:35 PM
I thought silva would be 10-15 bigger than Browne. Not 20!
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#13
Posted: 10/4/2012 8:54:40 PM
GL homie 
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#14
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:50:42 PM
Yeah man silva's going to be alot heavier come fight time.  And hallman was released a couple hours ago, but received his full pay, dont know whats going on there.  GL tomo dude
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#15
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:01:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MR219:

I think a lot of your thoughts are bang on...

I am pretty sure Stephens is going to be a significant fav over Yves Edwards (at least -250, if not higher)

Prater is absolutely dreadful!  I think Levasseur is still a top prospect, will shake off the octagon jitters loss to McKenzie, and make a strong showing of himself.


God I hope so. Still pissy at Levasseur from that McKenzie fight, if i/we get burned by him again and i will be real salty
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#16
Posted: 10/5/2012 9:12:07 AM
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#17
Posted: 10/5/2012 10:57:51 AM
Good luck sawman!
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#18
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:12:58 PM

since Sharp posted his Dodson play, my line went from 210 to 225, so i had to jump. I wanted to parlay with 49ers, or someone else, but don't want it to get any worse.

Dodson -225  $120 wins $53

I have Browne in 2 parlays, so I may not play him any more. I have an 8 teamer with him that is down to him, Erik Silva and Gustaffson that is $50 to win about $950, so I may just let that ride and hope it all pans out

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#19
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:35:32 PM
I like Nunes and Tavares. Probably do a small parlay for fun. May throw Big Foot in the parlay. He has a little skill. OK, he has very little skill but the bet is gonna be small. Hell, Big Foot looks mean enough to make me pee my pants. Maybe that ugly monster with a big smelly horse head will intimidate Browne a little!  

I really do like him at those odds.

GL,   Doc  
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#20
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:36:40 PM
All in on Tavares!
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#21
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:51:22 PM

Simpson/Pierce over 2.5 rounds -250  $100 wins $40

both guys are decision fighters - This line should be -300 or more IMO

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#22
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:37:06 PM

Here's a prop in CTMian fashion.

Hieron ITD +800. $20 to win $160. If this fights makes it to the 2nd half of the fight, this can happen

I put $20 both dogs in MLB today

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#23
Posted: 10/5/2012 5:30:00 PM
Line movement today is crazy. Ping ponging back and forth. Especially pierce Simpson on bodog
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#24
Posted: 10/5/2012 6:34:02 PM

damn, my NFL moneylines didn't come in until after the volkmann fight - missed out!

weekend parlays:

Neer/SF/Minny  $80 wins $91

Browne/GB/NE  $80 wins $130

Dodson/NYG/Chic  $80 wins $124

Dodson/Neer/SF/Chic  $80 wins $169

Browne/NYG/Balt/SF  $80 wins $163

Dodson/Neer/Browne/Ellenberger/SF/NYG/NE/Chic  $40 wins $278

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#25
Posted: 10/5/2012 6:39:14 PM
Browne/Neer/SF  $120 wins $145
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