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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC on FX 5: Browne vs. Silva Predictions
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#1
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:58:42 PM

Aaron Simpson   vs.   Mike Pierce  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)


Mike Pierce

Pierce is a wrestle-boxer fighting out of Portland Oregon, he sports an overall record of 14 – 5 – 0 and he wrestled at the division 1 level for Portland state university. Pierce is on the shorter side for welterweight standing only 5’8 but he is built like a MACK truck. Despite his usual height disadvantage Pierce possess a decent reach at 71”, he mixes up his strikes well, throws decent combos and has above average head movement. Pierce has become quite adept at slipping punches in close while finding the target with his own strikes. Pierce’s legit background in wrestling, compact frame and low center of gravity makes him almost impossible to take down, he was taken down twice by Josh Kosheck very briefly (pierce pop’d right back up) but if I remember correctly defended all three or four of NCAA Division 1 wrestler Johnny Hedricks’ takedowns and then getting a slam take-down of his own towards the end of the third round on Johnny.  While Pierce’s record is nothing to write home about his defeats deserve a second look. He lost to Mark Munoz in his fourth pro fight and Strikeforce vet Nathan Coy in his 7th (both by decision), Pierce’s 3rd pro loss came at the hands of perennial contender (lulz) Jon Fitch again by decision (Pierce had Fitch on roller skates in the third after a flurry of strikes) his 4th and 5th loses were to Johnny Hendricks and Josh Koshchek by decision and there are arguments to be made for Pierce in both of those fights, especially the Koshchek fight. Pierce utterly dominated Carlos Eduardo Rocha (a fighter I was very high on) in his last fight. Pierce used his more polished and technical striking to win on the feet and seemingly took Rocha down at will. Here is where Pierce really impressed me, he played (somewhat) in the guard of Rocha, but just far enough back and postured up so that Rocha couldn’t latch anything on, when Pierce felt like it he stood back up and made Rocha come with him, rinse and repeat, it was a beautiful bit of game planning by Pierce and his team that enabled Pierce to use his enormous wrestling advantage while still staying out of the sticky/risky guard of Rocha. Pierce has a very deep gas tank, power in his hands, legit wrestling, has never been knocked out of submitted and sky high fight IQ, making him a very dangerous fighter when he is on.

 

Aaron Simpson

Simpson is one of the more decorated wrestlers to enter into the UFC. Simpson finished high school with a 142 – 1 record while earning FOUR state championships. He would go on to wrestle at Arizona State, racking up another 110 wins and earning top dog NCAA All-American status twice. Simpson sports an overall record of 12 – 3 – 0, with two decision loses and one by knockout at the hands of Chris Leben. Simpson is a wrestler first and foremost but has also been working diligently on his boxing. He has been displaying better footwork and head movement lately; he used to move back and forth in straight lines making him very hittable and predictable but has since been showing better use of angles and cage movement. He has shown gas tank issues in the past but has seemed to rectify that with a drop down to 170lbs. Simpson went three pretty hard rounds with Kenny Robertson in his last fight and even turned it up into 2nd gear at the end of the third. He holds notable victories over Brad Tavares, Mario Miranda, Tom Lawlor and Ed Herman. This all being said Simpson is old (38) and has a suspect chin and his wrestling has not translated that well at the UFC level (this is the case with a lot of high level wrestler who need to adapt to MMA).

 Prediction – I think this is a bad match up for Simpson as he won’t be able to take Pierce down as much as he’d like to. Not sure that either guy gets the finish here as Pierce might be content to win on points. I’ll take Pierce by UD.

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#2
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:59:33 PM
ouch that blue is hard to read on the white back, sorry about that won't use again.
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#3
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:52:51 PM

Carlo Prater   vs.   Marcus LeVesseur  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Prater

Prater is a true journey man, over his 10 year career he has compiled a record of 30 - 11 – 1 with 15 of his 30 wins coming by way of submission. He is a black belt in BJJ as well as the somewhat lost are of Luta Livre. Prater’s biggest wins of his career came almost 10 years ago when he caught Carlos Condit in a triangle and Melvin Guillard in a guillotine (woop big surprise).  Since then he has gone on to beat mostly no names, every step up in competition has resulted in a defeat to the likes of: Drew Fickett X2, Keith Wisnieski X2 (although prater did get a split decision win in their 3rd fight) Carlos Condit, Brock Larson, Antonio McKee, Reza Madadi, Erick Silva and TJ Grant.  Prater also holds notable wins over Pat Healy and Spencer Fisher earlier in his career.  Prater has shown a knack for finding the submission but again this has mostly been against lower tier fighters, he has a solid gas tank and average fight IQ. He really falters in the wrestling department, his offensive take-downs are weak and not set up well and he has been taken down easily over his career. His striking has improved but he is easily pressured which in turn causes him to counter strike where he is much less effective.

LeVesseur

Marcus has been fighting professionally for almost 10 years, he has amassed a record of 21 – 6 – 0. 3 of his defeats are by way of submission and 3 are by knockout. LeVesseur has also finished 17 of his 21 wins, 10 by KO and 7 by submission. He was a wrestling prodigy in college, he went undefeated and untied with a record of 155 – 0. He captured four NCAA Division III individual nation titles and was a member of two teams that also won national titles.  LeVesseur’s  undefeated high school career of 141 unbeaten plus his unbeaten college career put his record up to an unbelievable 296 – 0.  Marcus also apparently defeated future Olympian Ben Askren 13 – 4 in their title match of the Bi-State Tournament in La Crosse.  In his UFC debut LeVesseur took Cody McKenzie down and gift wrapped his neck for Cody’s signature guillotine, if I didn’t know any better I would have thought that LeVesseur threw the fight or something, it was THAT bizarre. I’m going to chalk it up to octagon jitters and a bad game-plan.  Marcus’ strength of record is a bit weak; he has fought a few guys like 12 – 47 Jay Ellis. There is not a lot of footage out there on Marcus but from what I’ve seen he has been training extensively in Muay Thai which has added an arsenal of pretty deadly kicks to his already lethal wrestling / top control game. Even at 30 years of age I think we can peg this kid as a legit prospect if he can get by Prater, especially if he gets the finish.

 

Prediction – Prater’s weak TDD and weak guard have me worried for him in this fight, he isn’t exactly lighting it up standing either. Marcus should be able to dictate the pace and location of the fight with his wrestling while showcasing his improved standup / kicks. I like him to get the finish by KO in the third.
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#4
Posted: 10/3/2012 1:09:12 PM

re-post from above so you don't ruin your eyes reading about Pierce


Aaron Simpson   vs.   Mike Pierce  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Mike Pierce

Pierce is a wrestle-boxer fighting out of Portland Oregon, he sports an overall record of 14 – 5 – 0 and he wrestled at the division 1 level for Portland state university. Pierce is on the shorter side for welterweight standing only 5’8 but he is built like a MACK truck. Despite his usual height disadvantage Pierce possess a decent reach at 71”, he mixes up his strikes well, throws decent combos and has above average head movement. Pierce has become quite adept at slipping punches in close while finding the target with his own strikes. Pierce’s legit background in wrestling, compact frame and low center of gravity makes him almost impossible to take down, he was taken down twice by Josh Kosheck very briefly (pierce pop’d right back up) but if I remember correctly defended all three or four of NCAA Division 1 wrestler Johnny Hedricks’ takedowns and then getting a slam take-down of his own towards the end of the third round on Johnny.  While Pierce’s record is nothing to write home about his defeats deserve a second look. He lost to Mark Munoz in his fourth pro fight and Strikeforce vet Nathan Coy in his 7th (both by decision), Pierce’s 3rd pro loss came at the hands of perennial contender (lulz) Jon Fitch again by decision (Pierce had Fitch on roller skates in the third after a flurry of strikes) his 4th and 5th loses were to Johnny Hendricks and Josh Koshchek by decision and there are arguments to be made for Pierce in both of those fights, especially the Koshchek fight. Pierce utterly dominated Carlos Eduardo Rocha (a fighter I was very high on) in his last fight. Pierce used his more polished and technical striking to win on the feet and seemingly took Rocha down at will. Here is where Pierce really impressed me, he played (somewhat) in the guard of Rocha, but just far enough back and postured up so that Rocha couldn’t latch anything on, when Pierce felt like it he stood back up and made Rocha come with him, rinse and repeat, it was a beautiful bit of game planning by Pierce and his team that enabled Pierce to use his enormous wrestling advantage while still staying out of the sticky/risky guard of Rocha. Pierce has a very deep gas tank, power in his hands, legit wrestling, has never been knocked out of submitted and sky high fight IQ, making him a very dangerous fighter when he is on.

 

Aaron Simpson

Simpson is one of the more decorated wrestlers to enter into the UFC. Simpson finished high school with a 142 – 1 record while earning FOUR state championships. He would go on to wrestle at Arizona State, racking up another 110 wins and earning top dog NCAA All-American status twice. Simpson sports an overall record of 12 – 3 – 0, with two decision loses and one by knockout at the hands of Chris Leben. Simpson is a wrestler first and foremost but has also been working diligently on his boxing. He has been displaying better footwork and head movement lately; he used to move back and forth in straight lines making him very hittable and predictable but has since been showing better use of angles and cage movement. He has shown gas tank issues in the past but has seemed to rectify that with a drop down to 170lbs. Simpson went three pretty hard rounds with Kenny Robertson in his last fight and even turned it up into 2nd gear at the end of the third. He holds notable victories over Brad Tavares, Mario Miranda, Tom Lawlor and Ed Herman. This all being said Simpson is old (38) and has a suspect chin and his wrestling has not translated that well at the UFC level (this is the case with a lot of high level wrestler who need to adapt to MMA).

 Prediction – I think this is a bad match up for Simpson as he won’t be able to take Pierce down as much as he’d like to. Not sure that either guy gets the finish here as Pierce might be content to win on points. I’ll take Pierce by UD.

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#5
Posted: 10/3/2012 1:10:36 PM
oh right.

Went 10 - 1 on predictions last event.

YTD: 63 - 31

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#6
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:54:02 AM
Phil Harris   vs.   Darren Uyenoyama  
Preliminary Card | Flyweight | 125 lbs (56.7 kg)


Not a lot out there on Phil Harris, apparently he has been the UK's #1 rated flyweight for three years. He is British and has 13 wins by submission. This fight will most likely play out as a grappling / clinch fest and I would take Uyenoyama over most flyweights and bantamweights in the UFC in that kind of fight so Uyenoyama by RnC round 2. Also Phil is coming in on short notice to replace that short green haired Louis dude.




Ralph Gracie Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt, 2010 UFC Fan Expo Grapplers Quest, Las Vegas - Champion 139 and under, 2007 FILA Grappling World Championships - World Champion 62kg, 2006 BJJ Pan American Champion, 2006 Grapplers Quest Champion
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#7
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:55:08 AM
oops posted too quick, the bottom blurb is a list of Darren's grappling credentials.
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#8
Posted: 10/4/2012 4:06:12 PM
probably just blurbs for the rest, no time again. This research and accurate info thing takes time apparently!

Diego Nunes   vs.   Bart Palaszewski  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)


Nunes is the more logical pick but I can't shake the feeling that Bartimus is going to pull a rabbit out of his behind and KO Diego. Last time I had this feeling I was wrong...darn it Palaszewski by KO in the third.
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#9
Posted: 10/4/2012 4:19:05 PM
Shane Roller   vs.   Jacob Volkmann 
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

This should be a great scrap, two evenly matched opponents. I give the edge standing to Roller as he has shown improved standup is his last few fights. I'd give a a slight wrestling edge to Volkmann as he is a bit more cerebral with his take-down game and if he gets a hold of you he sticks like glue. The edge in BJJ/grappling I would also give to Volkman, he showed great submission defense in the Efrain Escudero fight when Efrain secured a d'arce choke late in the third that was super tight. Volkman also showed good submission offense against Escudero and Danny Castillo, he had last call in a bunch of tight neck chokes. Roller struggles against equal or higher level wrestlers, such as: Michael Johnson, TJ Grant, Melvin Guillard and Anthony Pettis. All 4 of this men were able to nullify Rollers wrestling and went on to beat him. Volkman has already beat some tough wrestlers and usually comes out on top when it's a grappler / grappler match up. He's beaten good wrestlers / grapplers such as Rony Torres, Antionio Mckee, Efrain Escudero and Danny Castillo.

Prediction - Volkmann by split decision.
I think he holds his own on the feet and sets up his shots well enough to get Roller down at least once a round which is all he really needs against most 155ers.
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#10
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:21:34 PM
Michael Johnson   vs.   Danny Castillo  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

People say Johnson hasn't improved that much but I would disagree. His footwork, combos and sprawl have all looked top notch since his move over to train with Rashad and the blackzillians. Castillo has a grinding style that is tough for any lightweight to deal with, he is very good at closing the distance and using over-unders, head position and body-locks to weigh on his opponent while looking for the take-down. Johnson will have to stay light on his feet, wizzer and pummel against the fence like his life depends on it but I think he can get it done and out point Castillo on the feet to take a split decision win.
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#11
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:24:50 PM
Jeremy Stephens   vs.   Yves Edwards  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Stephens power, hooks and improved wrestling VS Edwards striking diversity, speed, kicks and legit ground game. Tough fight to call but I like Yves to out point Stephens over three rounds. Yves used to have a granite chin but has suffered all of his career TKOs in the latter half of his career so if Jeremy catches him I would not be surprised in the least. 
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#12
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:29:04 PM
Josh Neer   vs.   Justin Edwards 
Main Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Edwards has that grinding style that I mentioned above in the Castillo fight. Edwards closes the distance well and basically has the same style as Castillo. Before entering the UFC Edwards was hell on wheels, finishing all of his opponents in the first round.  Neer should have what it takes to shrug off the early attempts and either blast Edwards in the clinch with elbows or combos from distance to get the TKO win in the 1st.
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#13
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:30:56 PM
John Dodson   vs.   Jussier da Silva  
Main Card | Flyweight | 125 lbs (56.7 kg)

Don't really like Dodson and I would absolutely love to see some ground wizardry from Formiga but my head says that Dodson will keep it standing where he should have the advantage.
Dodson by UD.
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#14
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:32:16 PM
Jay Hieron   vs.   Jake Ellenberger 
Co-Main Event | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Very tempted to pick Hieron, I think he is being a bit overlooked, however he is getting old and Jake is looking to make up for his last defeat. hmmmmmmmmmmmmm Ellenberger by KO in the 1st.
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#15
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:33:51 PM
Travis Browne   vs.   Antonio Silva  
Main Event | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

I think Silva's game plan will revolve around getting Browne down, this is a 5 round fight though and I like Greg Jackson to have a game plan set for Browne to take Silva out. Browne by TKO in the 4th.
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#16
Posted: 10/5/2012 7:40:23 PM
Great analysis. Was with you on Pierce, nice KO win. Agree with you on Browne-Silva result but don't think either has the gas tank to make it to the 4th. We'll see what happens.
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#17
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:28:35 AM
7 - 3

YTD: 70 - 34
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