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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC 152: Jones vs. Belfort (Say What!?) Predictions
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#1
Posted: 9/10/2012 5:34:02 PM
Not a great Bellator event for my predictions going 1  - 2 last time out :(

YTD : 49 - 22

Forum has been dead, i'm getting this thread going early as there are 12 fights and I'll be busy next week.

Evan “3D” Dunham   vs.   TJ Grant  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

 Dunham (5’10) 70.0” reach | 13 – 2 – 0

 Dunham, as his nickname states is a true 3 dimensional fighter with high level boxing, wrestling and submissions. Dunham wrestled in high school and took an elective BJJ course in college and never looked back. He is now a black belt under “Megaton” Dias and holds a guillotine choke win in MMA over 2008 World No-Gi champion Cleber Luciano.  Dunham would win his first 4 fights in the UFC with wins over Per Eklund, Marcus Aurelio, Efrain Escudero and Tyson Griffin. In the Escudero and Griffin fights Dunham put on a beautiful display of grappling as he was able to sweep, transition and throw up numerous sub attempts on both Griffin and Escudero.  Dunham would then lose his next fight to Shean Sherk by split division, a fight that stunk with controversy. Dunham clearly lost the first round due to multiple take-downs and some elbows that cut Evan up pretty good, Dunham turned it around in the second and the third clearly winning both rounds, in the end Sherk won a split decision, it was dirty and pretty damn close to a robbery. A TKO lose to Melvin Guillard and a dominant win over Shamar Bailey rounds out Dunham’s last two fights.

 

TJ Grant (5’11) 72.5” reach | 18 – 5 – 0

Grant is a submission grappler fighting out of Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia, he holds a brown belt in BJJ and recently made the drop down to lightweight where he has picked up two consecutive wins over Shane Roller and Carlo Prater.  Grant is a feisty grinder who prefers to fight in close where he can work a clinch takedown or pepper you with dirty boxing.  Grant has never been knocked out; holds 13 of his 18 wins via catch and 4 of his 5 defeats are decisions with one submission lose.  Grant’s striking is mediocre at best, he has little to no head movement and his foot work is average. That being said he is a true gamer and always shows up to fight, his fight IQ is above average, his BJJ is top notch, serviceable wrestling and he possess a deep gas tank.

 

Prediction – I like Dunham to take a close split decision with Grant holding his own throughout the fight by connecting on a few take-downs. Dunham’s BJJ / scrambling is on another level and I think that will pull out the win for him, oh yeah he throws better punches / combos but with less power than Grant I’d say.

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#2
Posted: 9/10/2012 5:38:55 PM

Seth Baczynski   vs.   Simeon Thoresen  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Not much of a write up for this.  Seth is a large welterweight, standing 6’3, he is a grinder / journeyman, decent wrestler but that’s about it. He won a close split decision over Lance Benoist in his last fight, a decision I had a problem with. Lance spent over half of each round on top of Baczynski but Baczynski ended up on top to end all three of the rounds. That fight does not bode well for Seth as Thoresen is larger than Benoist and possess a much more lethal take-down / submission game.  Thoresen won his first fight in the UFC via submission and has 15 of his 17 wins by way of catch.  He is Joachim “Hellboy” Hansesn’s star pupil in Norway.

Prediction – Simeon Thoresen via Sub in the 2nd after Seth survives the 1st
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#3
Posted: 9/10/2012 10:41:54 PM
Who will be favored - grant or Dunham? Dunham slight fav I think
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#4
Posted: 9/11/2012 1:31:48 AM
dunham is nice here.
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#5
Posted: 9/11/2012 12:00:02 PM
Dunham will be favored, but I'm thinking only slightly at first due to Grant's successful drop to 155. Although I gotta say, Dunham > Prater or Roller so Grant will be in tough.
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#6
Posted: 9/11/2012 12:25:18 PM
tough fight to call, though i do like the chances of a decision result.

dunham striking >>>
grant grappling  >>>

hence the estimation of a close line

grant does have the skill set to win imo
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#7
Posted: 9/11/2012 12:45:46 PM

Grant's first fight at LW?... didn't consider that. I think Grant has been flying under the radar as an amazing fighter. Dunham has the problem of wanting to put on a good show at the expense of losing. Like the Opposite of Jackson camp strategy! Really looking forward to this fight. And I definitely think the decision is a good call

 

Crow, how do you like the new Bodog App? I don't I used it for about an hour and went back to the webpage. I look at lines all day long, and with a webpage I can stay logged in. With the app, every itme you close it, you have to relogin, as well as it goes back to main menu. Takes way more time. Sucks!

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#8
Posted: 9/11/2012 1:03:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whipton:

tough fight to call, though i do like the chances of a decision result.

dunham striking >>>
grant grappling  >>>

hence the estimation of a close line

grant does have the skill set to win imo


I'd have to disagree with you on the grappling, Grant is brown belt and Dunham has been a legit black belt for over two years now.  While Grant is good on the ground he is more workmanlike and smothering, Dunham is explosive and technical and he possess some of the best sweeps off his back in the division. Also while Grant does have quite a few submissions on his record not one has come in the UFC (i'm not counting the roller fight, while the transition and arm bar was very nice roller had it defended perfectly when the ref stepped in for a pain grunt). Dunham has submitted Efrain Escudero and and holds a guillotine choke win in MMA over 2008 World No-Gi champion Cleber Luciano outside the UFC. It's Dunham all day on the ground.
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#9
Posted: 9/11/2012 1:05:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sawman:

Grant's first fight at LW?... didn't consider that. I think Grant has been flying under the radar as an amazing fighter. Dunham has the problem of wanting to put on a good show at the expense of losing. Like the Opposite of Jackson camp strategy! Really looking forward to this fight. And I definitely think the decision is a good call

 

Crow, how do you like the new Bodog App? I don't I used it for about an hour and went back to the webpage. I look at lines all day long, and with a webpage I can stay logged in. With the app, every itme you close it, you have to relogin, as well as it goes back to main menu. Takes way more time. Sucks!



This will be Grant's third fight at lightweight.

I haven't checked out the app yet and it looks like I might stay away a bit longer!
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#10
Posted: 9/11/2012 1:26:50 PM
i wouldn't get too caught up on belt colour. hettes is like a purple belt, weidman i don't know i'm guessing around the same, lytle never even had a belt. 

i capped this fight awhile ago and can only go by what i wrote down right after finishing the capping session. im pretty sure after watching the two fighters grant was definitely the better jitz practioner. 

tough one anyways brah no matter how you look at it GL
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#11
Posted: 9/11/2012 1:34:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whipton:

i wouldn't get too caught up on belt colour. hettes is like a purple belt, weidman i don't know i'm guessing around the same, lytle never even had a belt. 

i capped this fight awhile ago and can only go by what i wrote down right after finishing the capping session. im pretty sure after watching the two fighters grant was definitely the better jitz practioner. 

tough one anyways brah no matter how you look at it GL


Hopefully it hits the ground at some point so we'll find out =)
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#12
Posted: 9/11/2012 2:21:36 PM

Walel Watson   vs.   Mitch Gagnon  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

 Gagnon (5’5) 8 – 2 – 0 | 68”

Gagnon is a Canadian bantamweight who came in at the #10 spot on the 2011 Bloody Elbow Featherweight Scouting report. Gagnon is a strong wrestler who also possesses a highly effective ground game as his record of 7 submissions shows.  He lost a spirited bout against Bryan Caraway in his UFC debut, he looked very good early on and had Caraway in some bad spots, he was eventually taken down and choked out in the third but aside from some gas tank issues he looked pretty good. 

 

Walel “The Gazelle” Watson (5’11) 9 – 4 – 0 | 75” reach

Watson must be one of the tallest if not the tallest bantamweight in the UFC, standing just under 6 feet tall he is almost always the taller, rangier fighter and he uses these advantages well. He throws good straight hard punches (see Joseph Sandoval fight) and makes good use of a wide variety of kicks to keep his opponents on the outside.  He has a lethal ground game, particularly off his back (as he seems to lack the offensive wrestling to end up on top), throwing up triangles and working rubber guard to keep the ground and pound at a minimum. In Watson’s second last fight he lost a close split decision to Yves “tiger” Jabouin. Watson had Jabouin in a few tight chokes but was mostly outclasses on the feet over three rounds. In his last fight Watson was dominated by tough Alpha Male wrestler TJ Dillashaw on the ground, taken down seemingly at will.

 

Prediction – I was going to Pick Watson at first because I really like him and he has a decent chance of latching on a submission.  I’m going to go with Gagnon by UD. With the octagon jitters out of the way I think he’ll hit enough take-downs while staying out of any submission or at least fighting them off. Gagnon will be at a very large height and reach disadvantage so I believe his team will have a game plan of getting this to the mat with Mitch on top, the threat of submission is there though, but I feel like that might be Watson’s only way of winning this fight. Good luck!

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#13
Posted: 9/13/2012 6:06:33 PM

Kyle Noke   vs.   Charlie Brenneman  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

 

I was going to do a write up for these guys but then I got lazy, I think most of ya’ll coming into my threads know these two guys anyways. Brenneman the wrestler who upset Rick Story and Kyle Noke, jack of all trades; master of none.  As far as I can tell this is Noke’s first fight at Welterweight. Noke will be pretty big at 6’2 and 76” reach but we’ll have to see how the cut to 170 goes. The weight cut plus Charlie’s clear cut advantage in the wrestling department makes this his fight to lose.

 

Prediction – Charlie via lay and pray decision.
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#14
Posted: 9/16/2012 8:42:55 PM
Dunham will win this
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#15
Posted: 9/18/2012 11:54:44 AM
my apologies for the lack of write ups for this event, was sick yesterday and work will be crazy this week. I will probably end up just posting the prediction with a little blurb.

Jimy Hettes   vs.   Marcus Brimage  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)


Hettes - kid can do no wrong, straight up lethal take-down / submission game, has not really been tested or brought into deep waters yet, striking is a question mark as he is clinching and throwing auto.

Marcus Brimage - very good speed, above average boxing, good sprawl and brawl.

Prediction -
Unless Brimage sprawls and brawls like his life depends on it Hettes should bring this to the ground where he will have a significant advantage. Hettes via submission in the 2nd.

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#16
Posted: 9/18/2012 5:43:47 PM
Sean Pierson   vs.   Lance Benoist   
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Prediction - Benoist takes a UD from the durable but old and fading Sean Pierson.
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#17
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:54:44 PM

Vinicius Magalhaes   vs.   Igor Pokrajac  
Preliminary Card | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

Yes he has won three in a row but Pokrajac is still largely the same fighter that lost to Stephan Bonner in 2010. Give me the resurgent Magalhaes by submission in round three.

 

Enjoy these clips of Vinny if you haven’t seen them already.

Flying armbar on Chris Weidman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDZSCnkGrAQ

 

Vinny’s unbreakable arm vs Werdum
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk0G3NV9xaA

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#18
Posted: 9/20/2012 4:31:05 PM
Thx for links crow
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#19
Posted: 9/20/2012 8:32:10 PM
NP Dawg

Fun fact about Vinny, after winning the M1 LHW belt over a russian fighter (lulz) in M1 Vinny went through a bunch of contract disputes, I can't remember the details but M1 was not happy and I believe kind of holding him back via a contract or something, anyways after a bunch of back and forth Vinny put the M1 LHW belt up for sale on EBAY and ended up selling the thing for $100,000 USD. Can you say owned M1?
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#20
Posted: 9/20/2012 8:32:52 PM
Oh right for those who do not know M1 is the Russian fight promotion that Fedor owns like %10 of.
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#21
Posted: 9/20/2012 8:59:19 PM
thanks for all your work, crowat.
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#22
Posted: 9/21/2012 12:04:17 PM
=)  You're welcome.

Cub Swanson   vs.   Charles Oliveira 

Main Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)


Wow, what a fight. Potential FOTN if both men can take it deep or to a decision.

As much as I love Cub and he is probably one of the best picks for an "upset" but I think Oliveira's length, speed and youth will be the deciding factors in a back and forth war, there is a case to be made for a Cub Swanson knockout as he is a tricky little person inside the cage and has the power to put anyone in the division out, that being said I like the 6'1 Oliveira to do just enough to pull out the win via UD.
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#23
Posted: 9/21/2012 6:51:16 PM
Matt Hamill   vs.   Roger Hollett  
Main Card | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)


Oddly enough this is one of the harder fights to cap, so many unknowns. I've read a bit on Roger but did not have time to look at footage. Hamill's been out for long and has NEVER impressed me. ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Gun to my head lets go with Hollett via KO in the 1st.
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#24
Posted: 9/21/2012 6:55:40 PM
Michael Bisping   vs.   Brian Stann  
Main Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

I have Bisping all day every day in this fight. Sure Stann has good power, I've said it before and I'll say it again, he is NOT that good of a striker. He "looks" good when he pushing the pace and is fighting someone with a similiar level of stirking or someone below. Bisping is not that fighter, look for Bisping to use angles to move in and out without taking much damage, mix in the threat of his underrated wrestling and we have UD for Bisping.

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#25
Posted: 9/21/2012 6:58:41 PM
Joseph Benavidez   vs.   Demetrious Johnson  
Co-Main Event | Title Fight | Flyweight | 125 lbs (56.7 kg)

The line should be a bit closer but give me Benavidez to make history as the first UFC flyweight champ. The level of training, game planning and fight IQ that comes out of Team Alpha Male is second to none at the lower weight classes.


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