UFC 150 OFFICIAL plays...... (LARGE PLAY)

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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC 150 OFFICIAL plays...... (LARGE PLAY)
sharpstick PM sharpstick
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Posted: 8/11/2012 8:59:43 AM
2010 MMA: +32 units
2011 MMA: -34.3 units
2012 MMA YTD: +21.07 units



Had a great time at a great event at UFC on FOX 4.  Started the night off great with an easy winner on Moraga, then watched Grispi's fight IQ be terrible and get submitted by Yahya ensuring a losing evening.  Although small loss, it is never fun to have a losing event!  



Ken Stone +110 for 6 units    
Justin Lawrence +105 for 2 units
Melvin Guillard +300 for 1 unit
Okami/Lentz/Henderson PARLAY  2 units to win 2.4 units





sawman PM sawman
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:23:07 AM
I will get me some stone too. Thx for the tip! I understand taking the good line on Melvin but doesn't the bad cut concern you?
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sharpstick PM sharpstick
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:26:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sawman:

I will get me some stone too. Thx for the tip! I understand taking the good line on Melvin but doesn't the bad cut concern you?


Not in this fight.  It is very unlikely since they are great friends, and Cerrone doesn't fight that way anyway, that Cerrone will take Guillard down and submit him early.  I expect the first round to be all standup, and in that case I will take a chance with Guillard at +300 against anyone in the LW division.  His speed is unmatched at this weight, and I think he's certainly live, especially early in the fight.

I think it is very unlikely Cerrone takes him down and works a submission, although if he really wanted to he easily could.


sharpstick PM sharpstick
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Posted: 8/11/2012 12:33:02 PM
I can't believe this Ken Stone line movement.  
sharpstick PM sharpstick
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Posted: 8/11/2012 12:33:03 PM
I can't believe this Ken Stone line movement.  
Qncyk1 PM Qncyk1
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Posted: 8/11/2012 1:14:27 PM

youre right about guillard and that he will be live early. but in the last six years he has had one tko past the first round. hes a front-runner in every sense of the word. if this goes into the second the chances of your ticket cashing is pretty slim, especially with donald training in vail(7k altitude) for the majority of his camp.

and i really see very little chance of a greg jackson product fighting a stand-up first round war with a known front-runner.

obviously, melvin not cutting the 1.5 is definately in your favor.

suprised to see that you did not have bendo on a seperate play as you were pretty high on him in the first match.

sharpstick PM sharpstick
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Posted: 8/11/2012 1:28:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

youre right about guillard and that he will be live early. but in the last six years he has had one tko past the first round. hes a front-runner in every sense of the word. if this goes into the second the chances of your ticket cashing is pretty slim, especially with donald training in vail(7k altitude) for the majority of his camp.

and i really see very little chance of a greg jackson product fighting a stand-up first round war with a known front-runner.

obviously, melvin not cutting the 1.5 is definately in your favor.

suprised to see that you did not have bendo on a seperate play as you were pretty high on him in the first match.


I was high on Bendo at +125.  You're suggesting I turn around and lay -195 this time?  The price is where it should've been for the first fight.... no value anymore on Bendo.

Look at Cerrone's last two wins.  Siver and Stephens best chance to win was standing, and Cerrone didn't care.  Cerrone fights how he wants to fight, he isn't your typical Jackson fighter.  You're only kidding yourself if you don't think the majority of this fight will be standing.

sharpstick PM sharpstick
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Posted: 8/11/2012 1:45:38 PM
That being said, a Cerrone sub late isn't out of the question.  
Qncyk1 PM Qncyk1
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Posted: 8/11/2012 1:53:35 PM

siver does not have one-punch power. different fighter, different gameplans.

i think cerrone clinches and fights(non-reckless leaving himself open) with the objective of getting melvin into the second round where the chances of guillard winning are greatly reduced.

cerrone and jackson are too smart to fight a stand-up war with melvin in the first round, or i would at least hope so. perhaps the war will happen in the second where melvins speed and power are greatly reduced.

agree with bendo being expensive at -200.

Qncyk1 PM Qncyk1
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Posted: 8/11/2012 1:55:25 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sharpstick:

That being said, a Cerrone sub late isn't out of the question.  

thats probably the likely scenario if the fight gets into the second round.

unfortunately my book doesn not offer that option as thats how i see this fight playing out.

Crashdavis565 PM Crashdavis565
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Posted: 8/11/2012 2:14:15 PM
Bendo now 200
everyone and their mother on him

MR219 PM MR219
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Posted: 8/11/2012 2:51:57 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sharpstick:

I can't believe this Ken Stone line movement.  

I like the Stone play too!  The line movement has been really strange.  I think I saw Perez open as a small fav.  Then there was a lot of Stone money mid-week.  I think he was -130 at some books at one point.  It has been all Perez money ever since.  I would have liked to have put more on Stone myself, but something with this line movement seems very odd to me. 

ossigor PM ossigor
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Posted: 8/11/2012 3:45:29 PM
stone is +130 now.. nice cappin pro
sharpstick PM sharpstick
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Posted: 8/11/2012 3:49:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ossigor:

stone is +130 now.. nice cappin pro


Coming from the guy who laid -180 on Hioki for 6 units, then frantically started a thread wondering about why the price had plummeted!!!!


ossigor


http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=212&sub=101370179
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=212&sub=101370775

Click the links.  Can't even make this garbage up!!!!  
LONG-TU PM LONG-TU
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Posted: 8/11/2012 3:53:20 PM
Get that $ sharpstick ! 
Gimmmethatjuice PM Gimmmethatjuice
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Posted: 8/11/2012 4:58:30 PM
Hey Sharp definitely surprised to see you on Lawrence, the lines are usually skewed terribly when these TUF guys fight right after their seasons and why Lawrence was probably the most hyped on the show, he never really lived it up to it.  Cofer's stand up is terrible and he was outstriking Lawrence for a lot of that fight before getting caught. I feel Holloway has a decisive edge if this fight stays standing and Lawrence has really show no desire to take any of his fights to the ground.  I figured Holloway was going to be in the -180 range but hoped to get him around -140 thanks to the TUF bias, getting him at -110 this week was a gift.  This fight has 30-27 Holloway written all over it, maybe 29-28 cause Lawrence is usually strong in first but gasses badly in the later rounds. Just wondering your thought process on how Lawrence wins this fight, good luck with your stone play and the rest of your card.
Gimmmethatjuice PM Gimmmethatjuice
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Posted: 8/11/2012 5:04:56 PM
I think your thought process on Guillard is spot on and I think Cerrone will try and bang with him the first round.  Guillard hits much harder than anyone else in the division so the shot at a knockout is definitely there but Cerrone has never been knocked out before and has a great chin.  Ultimately I think Guillard catches him with a few solid punches in the first, hurts him and maybe wins the round. But after taking some punishment in the first, Cerrone will happily take this fight to the ground in the second for the submission.
sharpstick PM sharpstick
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Posted: 8/11/2012 5:22:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gimmmethatjuice:

Hey Sharp definitely surprised to see you on Lawrence, the lines are usually skewed terribly when these TUF guys fight right after their seasons and why Lawrence was probably the most hyped on the show, he never really lived it up to it.  Cofer's stand up is terrible and he was outstriking Lawrence for a lot of that fight before getting caught. I feel Holloway has a decisive edge if this fight stays standing and Lawrence has really show no desire to take any of his fights to the ground.  I figured Holloway was going to be in the -180 range but hoped to get him around -140 thanks to the TUF bias, getting him at -110 this week was a gift.  This fight has 30-27 Holloway written all over it, maybe 29-28 cause Lawrence is usually strong in first but gasses badly in the later rounds. Just wondering your thought process on how Lawrence wins this fight, good luck with your stone play and the rest of your card.


I'll be home in 30 minutes, and I'll post my thoughts on the fight!

deserted PM deserted
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Posted: 8/11/2012 5:30:24 PM
GL
LVTruck PM LVTruck
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Posted: 8/11/2012 5:34:46 PM
Played Stone , darn the line movement, the wind moves the lines in MMA 
MGD PM MGD
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Posted: 8/11/2012 6:20:16 PM

Truck in the house, GL brother! 

THX for the info Sharp, GL!

sharpstick PM sharpstick
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Posted: 8/11/2012 6:25:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gimmmethatjuice:

Hey Sharp definitely surprised to see you on Lawrence, the lines are usually skewed terribly when these TUF guys fight right after their seasons and why Lawrence was probably the most hyped on the show, he never really lived it up to it.  Cofer's stand up is terrible and he was outstriking Lawrence for a lot of that fight before getting caught. I feel Holloway has a decisive edge if this fight stays standing and Lawrence has really show no desire to take any of his fights to the ground.  I figured Holloway was going to be in the -180 range but hoped to get him around -140 thanks to the TUF bias, getting him at -110 this week was a gift.  This fight has 30-27 Holloway written all over it, maybe 29-28 cause Lawrence is usually strong in first but gasses badly in the later rounds. Just wondering your thought process on how Lawrence wins this fight, good luck with your stone play and the rest of your card.


I think Lawrence's inefficiencies in his standup won't be on display as Holloway lacks sever punching power.  I am a fan of his fluidity, speed and diverse striking attack though.  Lawrence can always revert to his better wrestling if he is getting outstruck, and that is the main reason I like this play.  If he doesn't KO Holloway early, I think Max's ground game will be severely exposed.  
ctm1985 PM ctm1985
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Posted: 8/11/2012 6:40:11 PM
GL sharpstick, looks like we're all cheering for Stone together.  I like that +125 that Lawrence is sitting at now, I think I'm gonna add him!


sharpstick PM sharpstick
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Posted: 8/11/2012 7:37:19 PM
Lentz is going to be tough at 145.  
CTownLetdown PM CTownLetdown
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Posted: 8/11/2012 7:52:33 PM
Good luck! On em all except Lawrence, but ur right about Hollaways ground game
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