|Sonnen +220 over Silva
Posted: 7/6/2012 3:14:24 PM
While it is true that Sonnen has a high likelihood of being submitted again, with 72 percent of his losses coming in this fashion, and though Silva's stand-up is always a factor, there is no reason to believe that this fight should go any differently than it did in the first 4½ rounds of the first match. That being said, it seems there is plenty of value here for Sonnen at plus-220, given his ability to control the fight again.
Ortiz +260 over Griffin
If you're simply basing it on past odds, what you have in Forrest Griffin versus Tito Ortiz III is as close to a coin flip as you can get in MMA. In their previous two meetings, Griffin and Ortiz have split, with both fights ending in a split decision. So why is Ortiz such a considerable underdog to Griffin in this matchup?
True, there might be a slight age advantage of four years, and Griffin does historically out strike Ortiz with 4.27 (SLpM) compared to Ortiz's 2.47 (SLpM). But from a technical perspective, Ortiz has the ability to beat Griffin by taking this fight to the ground, with his average of 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. Given there isn't any good indication that this third fight won't be as close as the first two, getting more than 2-1 odds on Ortiz is a very good value.
Kim -135 over Maia
Maia went a pathetic 0-for-7 on takedown attempts in both fights vs Munoz and Weidman, leading to two one-sided losses. This fight should be no different, as Kim is very good at staying on his feet, having averaged a high career takedown defense of 82 percent. With Kim being only a slight favorite according to the odds, he is a terrific value here, as he should have no problem executing a one-sided victory against Maia the way Munoz and Weidman did.
Fukuda +155 over Phillipou
Compare how Fukuda performed against previous opponent Steve Cantwell, who also possessed a takedown defense of about 80 percent heading into their fight. Despite his good ability to remain on his feet, Cantwell was taken down by Fukuda in three out of six attempts, leading Fukuda to the decision. With value as the underdog and the skills to outwork Philippou in both technical categories, Fukuda is a great bet here at plus-155.