UFC 146 & Bellator 70 Plays

Forum: Mixed Martial Arts Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC 146 & Bellator 70 Plays
MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 12:19:59 AM
YTD Record:
Overall: 66-72-1, -21.40 Units ,
UFC: 47-46-1, -15.30 Units ,
Strikeforce: 7-7, -1.80 Units ,
Bellator: 12-19, -4.30 Units ,
Final 2011 Record: 148-132-3, +123.55 Units
Final 2010 Record: 115-119-3, +11.25 Units
Final 2009 Record: 80-82-1, +23.75 Units
 
For Bellator on Friday night:
 
1.  Hiroshi Nakamura (+215) over Luis Nogueira.  Risking 1 unit to win 2.15 units.
 
2.  Derek Campos (+160) over Rich Clementi.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.6 units.
 
For UFC on Saturday:
 
1.  Stefan Struve (-120) over Lavar Johnson.  Risking 3.6 units to win 3 units.
 
More UFC plays to come... 
Bighurt PM Bighurt
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 1580
United States
 
Bighurt
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 12:21:29 AM
jonnyg4508 PM jonnyg4508
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 510
 
jonnyg4508
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 5:20:44 PM

Any insight on the Struve pick?  I like Struve to win as well, but I was thinking I may be bias as I have thought Struve could really be a prospect and I have ragged on Lavar...although he is doing well.

I can see Lavar catching Struve early...I mean he has power and Struve has a iffy chin.  But realistically Struve is the better fighter.  Lavar has no ground game at all.  Struve should be able to have a decent game plan here.

How do you see it shaking out.  My question is does Struve have good enough TDs?  What happens when he tries to clinch up and Lavar throws bombs?

MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 5:27:34 PM

UPDATED UFC CARD:

1. Stefan Struve (-120) over Lavar Johnson. Risking 3.6 units to win 3 units.

2.  Mike Brown (-120) over Daniel Pineda.  Risking 2.7 units to win 2.25 units.

MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 5:27:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bighurt:

MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 5:30:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:

Any insight on the Struve pick?  I like Struve to win as well, but I was thinking I may be bias as I have thought Struve could really be a prospect and I have ragged on Lavar...although he is doing well.

I can see Lavar catching Struve early...I mean he has power and Struve has a iffy chin.  But realistically Struve is the better fighter.  Lavar has no ground game at all.  Struve should be able to have a decent game plan here.

How do you see it shaking out.  My question is does Struve have good enough TDs?  What happens when he tries to clinch up and Lavar throws bombs?

In Struve's interviews, he has basically said that he has learnt his lessons from losses to Dos Santos, Nelson, and specifically Browne.  He said he is going to fight to his strengths, that a choke is just as legal as an elbow, etc.  Bottom line:  Struve will implement a smart ground based game plan and tap Johnson.  Yes, Struve's grappling is more than sufficient to take Johnson down without eating damage.  Heck, Pat Barry clinched, practically sneezed, fell over, and landed in full mount on Johnson

sirchadwick1 PM sirchadwick1
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 264
 
sirchadwick1
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 5:42:38 PM
I'm with ya on these plays.  Like both Bellator dogs at those odds.  And I was just waiting for the chance to fade Clementi... my god has he fallen.  Way too many guys are down on Struve and his chin, which is why his line is so great.  In all honesty I think he should be at -200 against someone like Lavar.  All Stefan has to do is avoid the KO and he wins this one... yeah, most likely by sub after weathering an early onslaught.

As for MTB, I love the guy and know he needs this win bad... but I simply can't put anything on him after his last few performances.  It's all mental w/ him at this point, but he has the tools to win.

BOL on these plays! 
CTownLetdown PM CTownLetdown
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 684
 
CTownLetdown
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 5:43:14 PM
Good luck MR! I'm locked in on Struve as well as I think if it gets to the ground struve will easily move into mount & tap or pound out Johnson. What are ur thoughts on Brown? I've watched Pinedas last 7 or so fights and like him a lot, & Brown seems to be on his way out. Big play on Pineda for me, just curious what ur thoughts are? Brown by rnc?
Posted using a mobile device.
MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 10:40:17 PM
Updated YTD Record:
Overall: 66-74-1, -23.40 Units ,
UFC: 47-46-1, -15.30 Units ,
Strikeforce: 7-7, -1.80 Units ,
Bellator: 12-21, -6.30 Units ,
Final 2011 Record: 148-132-3, +123.55 Units
Final 2010 Record: 115-119-3, +11.25 Units
Final 2009 Record: 80-82-1, +23.75 Units
 
Updated record after my two Bellator dog plays went up in smoke.  I am happy to see Bellator season 6 end as it was a f*cking brutal season for me...
MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 10:42:48 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sirchadwick1:

I'm with ya on these plays.  Like both Bellator dogs at those odds.  And I was just waiting for the chance to fade Clementi... my god has he fallen.  Way too many guys are down on Struve and his chin, which is why his line is so great.  In all honesty I think he should be at -200 against someone like Lavar.  All Stefan has to do is avoid the KO and he wins this one... yeah, most likely by sub after weathering an early onslaught.

As for MTB, I love the guy and know he needs this win bad... but I simply can't put anything on him after his last few performances.  It's all mental w/ him at this point, but he has the tools to win.

BOL on these plays! 

I think the line on the Struve fight is bang on at this point in time.  Johnson has been on a nice roll and the public backers will remember him from his impressive showing against Barry on Fox a few weeks ago and want to bet on him.

Mike Brown had a nice win against Nam Phan last time out.  I really think his personal problems are behind him, and still has what it takes to be a top competitor at 145.

deserted PM deserted
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 685
Saskatchewan
 
deserted
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 10:46:49 PM
GL 

I think Struvey should be able to stay on the outside for round 1 and just coast to an easy victory in round 2 or 3, or maybe just take lavar down (looks easy) , gl ! You're due for a big win 
MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 10:48:56 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CTownLetdown:

Good luck MR! I'm locked in on Struve as well as I think if it gets to the ground struve will easily move into mount & tap or pound out Johnson. What are ur thoughts on Brown? I've watched Pinedas last 7 or so fights and like him a lot, & Brown seems to be on his way out. Big play on Pineda for me, just curious what ur thoughts are? Brown by rnc?

Struve

I have cashed in on Pineda in his first two UFC fights as nice dogs in both fights.  But I think this is a good time to jump off his bandwagon.  I think Mike Brown is better than Pineda in all facets of the game.  Pineda has beaten nothing but stiffs in his career and some of his loses were not very good. 

Despite Brown's recent struggles, he is still a top 5 fighter at 145 IMO.  I think Brown will be able to dictate the pace of this fight and implement his game plan better than Pineda.  I think the personal problems that have been plaguing Brown are behind him, and I think he makes it two in a row tomorrow.

MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 10:50:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by deserted:

GL 

I think Struvey should be able to stay on the outside for round 1 and just coast to an easy victory in round 2 or 3, or maybe just take lavar down (looks easy) , gl ! You're due for a big win 

I hope you are right!  I cannot believe the a$$ kicking I have been taking this year...

treasurecay25 PM treasurecay25
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 6726
Bahamas
 
treasurecay25
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/25/2012 11:13:28 PM
 I m really liking Glover Tex tomorrow in his first UFC figth? Any thoughts? I usually love my picks but loaded on levasuer and that went to garbage so not doubting my picks just lobbying them off someone else who understands the game.
ctm1985 PM ctm1985
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 1878
Canada
 
ctm1985
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/26/2012 2:44:27 AM
I'm not playing either side but that's a great line on Mike Brown.. love Struve, GL 
sharpstick PM sharpstick
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 8523
Nevada
 
sharpstick
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/26/2012 9:46:28 AM
MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/26/2012 10:25:05 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by treasurecay25:

 I m really liking Glover Tex tomorrow in his first UFC figth? Any thoughts? I usually love my picks but loaded on levasuer and that went to garbage so not doubting my picks just lobbying them off someone else who understands the game.

This is a tough fight to pick.  On paper, Teixeira should take this fight in any manner that he choses, but he is at a size and strenght disadvantage IMO, and the whole Octagon jitters thing has me backing away.  If I do play this, it will be on a small parlay.

MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/26/2012 10:26:30 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ctm1985:

I'm not playing either side but that's a great line on Mike Brown.. love Struve, GL 

There has been a ton of Pineda love since this line opened, and it is hard not to be impressed by his 2 UFC wins, so I am not surprised that people are either playing Pineda or staying away from this one.

 

MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/26/2012 10:27:00 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sharpstick:

Reach PM Reach
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 1415
California
 
Reach
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/26/2012 10:39:22 AM
Good luck MR219! Like Struve and Brown. How do you feel about parlaying Brandao -270 with anyone else?
Posted using a mobile device.
MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/26/2012 12:14:29 PM

UPDATED CARD:

1.  Parlay of Jacob Volkmann over Paul Sass, Edson Barboza over Jamie Varner and Junior Dos Santos over Frank Mir.  Risking 10 units to win 11.1 units.

2.  Stefan Struve (-120) over Lavar Johnson.  Risking 3.6 units to win 3 units.

3.  Mike Brown (-120) over Daniel Pineda. Risking 2.7 units to win 2.25 units.

4.  Parlay of Diego Brandao over Darren Elkins, Roy Nelson over Dave Herman and Cain Velasquez over Antonio Silva.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.45 units.

5.  Dan Hardy (-125) over Duane Ludwing.  Risking approximately 0.6 units to win 0.5 units.

6.  CB Dollaway (+135) over Jason Miller.  Risking 0.4 units to win 0.55 units.

leans:  Texeira, Del Rosario

I may add more to some of these plays, depending how the night starts out.

BOL to everyone with your plays!!!

MR219 PM MR219
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 6683
Ontario
 
MR219
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/26/2012 12:15:41 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Reach:

Good luck MR219! Like Struve and Brown. How do you feel about parlaying Brandao -270 with anyone else?

See play 4. 

I think Brando wins fairly easily tonight...

BigPapa21 PM BigPapa21
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 2697
United States
 
BigPapa21
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/26/2012 12:46:39 PM

GL 219....hope you do well....

sawman PM sawman
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 5076
Alberta
 
sawman
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/26/2012 12:51:48 PM
Good luck bro. Everything looks good. I hope the big favs come through
Posted using a mobile device.
sawman PM sawman
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 5076
Alberta
 
sawman
Participation Meter
Posted: 5/26/2012 5:48:10 PM
Any thoughts on that brown line movement. I put him in a parlay at -105, but looks like it may keep gettin better
Posted using a mobile device.
Forum: Mixed Martial Arts Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.