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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC 146
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/22/2012 5:36:56 PM

Wow! what a card!!! There are going to be tons of finishes!

JDS/Mir - I've said this before, but I've never taken a run at it seriously. The last UFC HW title fight to go the distance was Couture/Silvia, many yrs ago. The safest bet on the card may be this fight not going 5 full rounds. But it's probably -800. But an under 3 or 4 rounds at -300 is a good bet. Sure there's a chance Mir somehow tags JDS and stuns him, and gets him on the mat for a sub... But I doubt it will happen. JDS by KO

Cain/Bigfoot - I was a big fan of Bigfoot. Lost a little for me when Cormier beat him down. But now with Cormier taking out Barnett so easily his stock is up again in my books. But I like Cain to control the fight and win.

Big Country/Herman - Herman has some big hands but he is now going to KO Country. I think Country can win this on the feet, where he MAY get a KO. But more than likely, he will play it smart, get on top og Herman, and sub him. an Inside the distance bet is a great play here

Miocic/Del Rosario - Miocic has been awesome. He has the whole package. Del rosario no slouch either. But I epect Miocic to make another big statement. Del Rosario may have a better sub game but he'll have to get it there to start, and Miocic should dictate the fight with his wrestling. again an ITD bet is strong here. I like Miocic by KO, but there`s a chance he goes down too

Lavar/Struve - this may be the strongest ITD bet. Sure Struve can catch a big shot (or flurry of shots Lavar style), but I like him the get an easy TD, and quick sub once it hits the mat

Brandao/Elkins - still lookin into it

Varner/Barboza - the easy choice is Barboza kicking the garbage out of a slower Varner, but I want to think about it more before I count out the wiley veteran

CB/Miller - a have some incling to think that CB will try a take down and Miller will sub him, but more than likely CB keeps it on the feet and should be able to out strike the sloppy standup of Miller

Ludwig/Hardy - Hardy still in UFC after 4 straight losses? Not after 5. Ludwig should have stronger standup. see if Hardy shows up with a fat gut again at the weigh in and the decision will be easy

Texeira/Kingsbury - I have to review more, but Texeira is supposed to be an absolute stud

Sass/Volkmann - Volkmann may be the boringest, lay and prayer in the UFC. He finds a way to control fights and get the decision W. But that plays right into Sass's game. Not sure on the line yet, but a flier on Sass may be a decent play, and if you're going that route you may as well play Sass ITD

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MR219 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#2
Posted: 5/22/2012 5:47:28 PM
I am very excited about this card!  I definitely see a winning night for us both!!!
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sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 5/22/2012 9:27:16 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MR219:

I am very excited about this card!  I definitely see a winning night for us both!!!

I will be making an extra deposit for this card... Hope you post before Vegas!... I think I will make the majority of the plays the day before because that's when my props come out and I may play a lot of ITD rather than winners. Also want to see a couple guys at weigh in.

I forgot to comment on Brown/Pineda. This is a very tricky fight to cap. Brown is hot and cold

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#4
Posted: 5/22/2012 9:30:48 PM

also, to correct a very bad typo that made the stament confusing:

Herman/Big Country - "Herman is NOT going to KO Big Country"... and not: "Herman is now going to KO country"

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#5
Posted: 5/22/2012 9:53:06 PM
I CAN'T WAIT for this card !!  Just awesome top to bottom, and that main card is going to be exciting as hell.

I agree with all of your leans up there, but I like Hardy over Ludwig, I really want to see what that line is gonna be.  Also really confident in Barboza, even after re-watching Varner's last 3 fights (including his 2 quick KO's), I still just don't see him having a chance, I think the line is accurate!  But if Varner wins by DQ after over-selling some low blows I'm going to officially lose it.

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#6
Posted: 5/22/2012 9:53:40 PM
And I'm seeing alooot of love for Del Rosario out there but I agree that Miocic is the right side
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#7
Posted: 5/22/2012 11:07:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sawman:

I will be making an extra deposit for this card... Hope you post before Vegas!...

forget that Vegas bit... I mixed up that you were goin to 148 and not 146

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#8
Posted: 5/23/2012 12:53:10 AM
Barboza over Varner via murder.

Mir gets starched in Round 1.

Cain schools Silva.  Dude is just too damn slow.  That Fedor fight fooled everyone into thinking Silva is any good. He isnt. Fedor fought a stupid, reckless fight and Cain isnt going to fight like an idiot and end up on his back with that sasquatch laying on him.  Cain TKO Round 2.
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#9
Posted: 5/23/2012 12:37:40 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ctm1985:

And I'm seeing alooot of love for Del Rosario out there but I agree that Miocic is the right side

I've seen some picks for Del Rosario too. But the biggest factor is: his last fight was Feb, 2011, his last before that July 2010, before that Nov, 2009... That is a lot of inactivity... specifically his last fight

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#10
Posted: 5/24/2012 6:44:09 PM

JDS/Cain/Barboza  $200 wins $158

JDS/Cain/Volkmann/Texeira  $80 wins $179

JDS/Barboza/Nelson  $100 wins $109

Cain/Texeira/Nelson/Miocic  $80 wins $270

volkmann/Texeira/Barboza/Cain/JDS/Nelson $40 wins $327

Other likely plays: Cain ITD, Miocic ITD, Nelson ITD, Struve ITD, HermanNelson under___rounds, JDS/Mir under___rounds, Struve/Lavar under____ rounds, Ludwig/Hardy under___ rounds

If Hardy shows up to weigh in fat, I may hit Ludwig hard

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#11
Posted: 5/24/2012 6:50:48 PM
That last one looks money!  Damn, 8:1!
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#12
Posted: 5/24/2012 10:19:09 PM
Miocic is going to KO Del Rosario?  Del Rosario is a much better striker imo.
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#13
Posted: 5/24/2012 11:11:14 PM
Don't you think his layoff will affect his performance?... I do
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#14
Posted: 5/25/2012 8:53:59 AM
It definitely could.  Major back injury from a car accident is serious, along with rust and his Octagon debut.  But I do not see Miocic knocking him out and if Miocic is foolish enough to play the striking game I think Del Rosario takes his head off.  Miocic should stick to wrestling and dirty boxing IMO but we will see
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#15
Posted: 5/25/2012 12:26:03 PM
KO. TKO. They don't have to stand in middle of cage. He could KO him on the cage, boetch style
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#16
Posted: 5/25/2012 2:11:06 PM
I'm on Del Rosario as well. I think Miocic is a good prospect but if he continues to leave his hands down & abandon technique he's gonna get dropped
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#17
Posted: 5/25/2012 2:11:27 PM
Good luck sawman!
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sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#18
Posted: 5/25/2012 3:18:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CTownLetdown:

Good luck sawman!

thx, bro. good luck to you too! I just have to think that 15 month layoff will have some effect.

added one more square play

nelson/barboza/brandao  $100 wins $132

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#19
Posted: 5/26/2012 3:34:02 PM

This is embarrassing how all over the favs I am, but I really like the favs on this card. I'm usually wrong on a couple. Just can't see Cain, JDS, Nelson, Brandao, Barboza losing. Little worried Sass might pull off a sub. And Miocic. and even Texeira although that is a real popular choice. Of Course Lavar can end things in a hurry, but I have been a huge Struve fan for years, and I think he's miles better.

JDS/Cain/Barboza $200 wins $158

JDS/Cain/Volkmann/Texeira $80 wins $179

JDS/Barboza/Nelson $100 wins $109

Cain/Texeira/Nelson/Miocic $80 wins $270

volkmann/Texeira/Barboza/Cain/JDS/Nelson $40 wins $327

nelson/barboza/brandao $100 wins $132

Miller/JDS/Barboza  $50 wins $70

Struve/Brandao/Cain/Nelson  $50 wins $160

Struve ITD -120  $50 wins $42

Nelson ITD -110 $50 wins $45

JDS ITD -300 $100 wins $33

Miller SOTN  $10 wins $140

Barboza/Varner FOTN $10 wins $120 (1st fight of PPV, I think Varner can stick around for 3rds, sometimes Dana rewards a guy for steppin in late and taking a beating)

BTW... how about "rumble" missing weight again? what an idiot

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#20
Posted: 5/26/2012 3:40:10 PM
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#21
Posted: 5/26/2012 5:54:37 PM
hell yeah as soon as I started checkin out all the fights I was like OOO snaps... one of the better cards I have ever seen 
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#22
Posted: 5/26/2012 6:12:09 PM

gluck with all your props n plays saw...

rumble missed weight again and after his win he said his body shut down and he couldnt release any sweat but yet he was drenched all night in his own sweat so thats BS.. he doesnt take the sport seriously and thinks he can just land them 1 or 2 devastating punches to end it.. he's a joke..   4 straight fights he missed weight..  or he should just fight at 205 instead of walking around at 215-220+ and cutting 40-50+ lbs, thats so ridiculous.

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#23
Posted: 5/27/2012 11:13:52 AM

despite a decent prefight anaylis (which counts for nuttin!), i got drilled. almost single handedly by barboza. not overly surprised with Sass

However, I have all these belfort parlays, and he unfortunately (maybe fortunately) is out of his Silva fight.... so I'm a sunday winner this week

these $s are not adjusted:

Mir (+300 vs cain no action)/belfort/bones/rory $50 wins $320

rory/mayday/bones/belfort  $100 wins $271

from months ago: brown/riddle/poirier/herman/barao/kos/ellenberger/belfort/stann/gustavson (vs nog - no action) $40 wins $793

c,mon Neer!!!

dodson/melendez/miocic/cain/jds/neer/belfort $20 wins $211

srauss/neer/belfort $40 wins $239

melendez/neer/jds  $50 wins $134

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