Posted: 5/22/2012 5:36:56 PM
Wow! what a card!!! There are going to be tons of finishes!
JDS/Mir - I've said this before, but I've never taken a run at it seriously. The last UFC HW title fight to go the distance was Couture/Silvia, many yrs ago. The safest bet on the card may be this fight not going 5 full rounds. But it's probably -800. But an under 3 or 4 rounds at -300 is a good bet. Sure there's a chance Mir somehow tags JDS and stuns him, and gets him on the mat for a sub... But I doubt it will happen. JDS by KO
Cain/Bigfoot - I was a big fan of Bigfoot. Lost a little for me when Cormier beat him down. But now with Cormier taking out Barnett so easily his stock is up again in my books. But I like Cain to control the fight and win.
Big Country/Herman - Herman has some big hands but he is now going to KO Country. I think Country can win this on the feet, where he MAY get a KO. But more than likely, he will play it smart, get on top og Herman, and sub him. an Inside the distance bet is a great play here
Miocic/Del Rosario - Miocic has been awesome. He has the whole package. Del rosario no slouch either. But I epect Miocic to make another big statement. Del Rosario may have a better sub game but he'll have to get it there to start, and Miocic should dictate the fight with his wrestling. again an ITD bet is strong here. I like Miocic by KO, but there`s a chance he goes down too
Lavar/Struve - this may be the strongest ITD bet. Sure Struve can catch a big shot (or flurry of shots Lavar style), but I like him the get an easy TD, and quick sub once it hits the mat
Brandao/Elkins - still lookin into it
Varner/Barboza - the easy choice is Barboza kicking the garbage out of a slower Varner, but I want to think about it more before I count out the wiley veteran
CB/Miller - a have some incling to think that CB will try a take down and Miller will sub him, but more than likely CB keeps it on the feet and should be able to out strike the sloppy standup of Miller
Ludwig/Hardy - Hardy still in UFC after 4 straight losses? Not after 5. Ludwig should have stronger standup. see if Hardy shows up with a fat gut again at the weigh in and the decision will be easy
Texeira/Kingsbury - I have to review more, but Texeira is supposed to be an absolute stud
Sass/Volkmann - Volkmann may be the boringest, lay and prayer in the UFC. He finds a way to control fights and get the decision W. But that plays right into Sass's game. Not sure on the line yet, but a flier on Sass may be a decent play, and if you're going that route you may as well play Sass ITD