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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC on Fox 3
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/25/2012 6:17:47 PM

I'm thinking of making some early plays, so some feedback would be appreciated.

Diaz/Miller - I like Miller but I don't think he should be favored the -225 that he is. I assume this is a 5 rounder. If it's 3 it should go to decision. Even at 5 rounds I don't think either fighter will KO or sub the other. I'm thinking that Miller will dirty box his way to victory. But I also think there's a chance that Diaz can keep distance and win the stand up.

Koscheck/Hendricks - Hendricks has taken over as the favorite. I'm wishing I bet him as a dog. I hope Hendricks Kos him... not sure yet

Palhares/Belcher - If Palhares gets a limb, it's over. But Dan Miller survived, and I think Belcher can too. I am ready to bet this at +240

Fergusen/Johnson - Can someone confirm this. Either Sherdog's stats are messed up, or this is a different Michael Johnson. A British one

Garza/Bermudez - this is another Dog I want to bet ASAP. Bermudez has 3 straight sub losses. Garza is a sub specialist

 

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#2
Posted: 4/25/2012 9:57:23 PM
Michael Jonhson from St. Louis  11-6
he was on the ultimate fighter on gsp's team
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#3
Posted: 4/26/2012 12:18:23 AM
I'm not sure what to think of diaz anymore, since he moved back down to LW he seems like a totally different fighter, he does suck vs wrasslers though, maybe he can turn it into a standup? I like the over 3.5 or 4.5 rounds or whatever the total is! 

I pray to whatever gods that Hendricks knocks out Koscheck every night! 

GL on whatever you play!
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#4
Posted: 4/26/2012 2:08:01 AM
What do you think about Pat Barry vs Lavar Johnson?  Loving Barry in that one, actually made a decent play on Barry straight up as well as Barry by sub   Also I really like Hendricks over Kos

Diaz vs Miller is for sure 5 rounds, should be a hell of a fight!
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#5
Posted: 4/26/2012 11:20:24 AM
Oh yeah, I meant to add some comments on Lavar/Barry. I don't know much about Lavar. I've seen his last two fights. It's great that he KO'd Beltran, but beating him is not a huge accomplishment. That's some heavy juice to lay on Barry (-205) vs a guy with heavy hands. The whole fight should be swingin for the fences. One guy wil probably get KO'd. Not real sure yet.
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#6
Posted: 4/26/2012 12:05:35 PM
Basically, Lavar has a brutal gastank, *zero* ground game, is slow as hell, and leaves himself wide open while striking.  He does hit really hard though.

I don't think it'll be swinging for the fences, Barry's gonna have a huge speed and technical advantage, think he's going to work those leg kicks, try to wear him down, and like I said I could actually see Barry getting the sub here.  He's been saying he wants one, and I think he genuinely wants to improve that part of his game, also he's said he's worried about Johnson's power.

The only thing I'm worried about is Barry finding himself clinched against the fence where Lavar can work uppercuts..
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#7
Posted: 4/26/2012 1:31:50 PM
great info, CTM - thanks a lot. If barry fights smart, it should be his fight. But he loves to put on a show - and all his fights are so exciting. Love that sub info - this may be his chance
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#8
Posted: 4/26/2012 1:43:46 PM
I actually like Lavar in this one.  I think this fight may look like Schaub against Rothwell.  Schaub was favored and when they started exchanging the stronger chin won.  I could see Lavar wanting to get close and give Barry all he has.  If that doesn't provide a knockout I believe Barry could outlast him.  I would be scared if I had a wager on Barry.  He could get mauled and put down quite easily.  It should be an entertaining fight.  Lavar will have a nice size advantage also. 
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#9
Posted: 4/26/2012 2:30:09 PM

I think Barry has a "bigger beard" than Schaub. All his fights are stand and trade vs always bigger opponents. He has only been KO'd once.

3 early plays I want to jump on because I think the lines get worse

Hendricks  -125  $50 wins $40... sick of watchin this line get worse!

Garza +145  $40 wins $58.    just looks like a good match up for him 

Belcher +240  $40 wins $96... as dangerous as Palhares is, I think these odds are way off

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#10
Posted: 4/26/2012 8:03:24 PM
Yeah Lavar is going to want to get in Barry's face and force him to exchange early.  I actually bet on Lavar and the u1.5 rounds when he fought Beltran, but a guy like Barry is a whole other story.

Good luck on those sawman, scary betting against Palhares right now
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#11
Posted: 4/27/2012 9:11:06 AM
Ferguson/Barry parlay. $50 wins $52
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#12
Posted: 4/27/2012 12:46:02 PM
FYI, to clarify my first post, Sherdog did in fact have incorrect info on Michael Johnson, and they corrected to the Michael Johnson from TUF. -270 is a lot of juice to lay on Fergusen, but I think he has been much more impressive in his wins.
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#13
Posted: 4/27/2012 12:47:08 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Nicky123:

I actually like Lavar in this one.  I think this fight may look like Schaub against Rothwell.  Schaub was favored and when they started exchanging the stronger chin won.  I could see Lavar wanting to get close and give Barry all he has.  If that doesn't provide a knockout I believe Barry could outlast him.  I would be scared if I had a wager on Barry.  He could get mauled and put down quite easily.  It should be an entertaining fight.  Lavar will have a nice size advantage also. 

BTW, Nicky, great call on Michael Mac last weekend - I cashed it - hope you did too!

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#14
Posted: 4/27/2012 1:58:25 PM
pat barry has a glass jaw.

tony ferguson will definitely beat michael johnson, he is a far superior fighter.
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#15
Posted: 4/27/2012 2:37:17 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ossigor:

pat barry has a glass jaw.

tony ferguson will definitely beat michael johnson, he is a far superior fighter.

Barry has only been KO'd once... when he walked into a huge shot by Kongo

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#16
Posted: 4/28/2012 11:50:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Nicky123:

I actually like Lavar in this one.  I think this fight may look like Schaub against Rothwell.  Schaub was favored and when they started exchanging the stronger chin won.  I could see Lavar wanting to get close and give Barry all he has.  If that doesn't provide a knockout I believe Barry could outlast him.  I would be scared if I had a wager on Barry.  He could get mauled and put down quite easily.  It should be an entertaining fight.  Lavar will have a nice size advantage also. 


Not sure how you can say Barry has less of a jaw?

Even if Lavar's is better, I don't see it as a factor. 

Not sure why everyone thinks Barry has no jaw?
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#17
Posted: 4/30/2012 3:21:24 PM

doubled my Garza bet at +145 - now I have a WHOLE $80 on him!!

I still am liking my Belcher bet even though I seem to be the only guy in the world betting him!... but my ankle is getting sore the more I think about it

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#18
Posted: 5/1/2012 3:05:54 PM

more thoughts:

Dodson/Elliot - Dodson has some serious power in his punches, and a KO is my initial prediction. I also heard him say that he is bitter he wasn't invited to the Flyweight tourney, so he has some extra fire in his belly. Further, Elliot is a very late replacement

Krauss/Hathaway - I think Hathaway has more skill and experience

Gaudinot/Linekar - gaudinot's first fight at 125, I think. Linekar on a great streak outside of UFC. Gaudinout seemed pretty unskilled, but has a big heart. not sure if the move down will help his cause here.

Cholish/Castillo - Cholish is no slouch, but I like castillo's experience, and boring fight style to get the W

Delorme/Denis - Wow! was denis impressive last fight. Delorme stepping in late notice. You gotta think Denis shows that awesome power again

vemola/Massenzio - i don't know what to make of this fight yet

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#19
Posted: 5/1/2012 6:48:44 PM
i havent seen many people on kos....imo hes got a real good shot here...im hoping i can get him at +$.....not taking anything away from hendricks.....his ko of fitch was impressive but i think its the reason many are on johnny....and i think an early ko like that has a lot to do with luck....if someone gets a finish that quick before the feeling out process has happened i think its a product of right place right time....but either way im betting on kos fighting a smart fight and getting a decision most likely.....bol saturday should be fun to watch
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#20
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:50:23 PM
Thanks hurt. It will be fun. A great card. Kos hendricks should be a coin flip. I'd love to see a KO but a decision is likely. I actually think that kos will get bet hard the day of with guys thinking just like you. Not a fight I'd ever bet a ton. Might even be a split dec the way these two fight and both their fights with pierce. All similar fighters
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#21
Posted: 5/3/2012 5:26:41 PM

updated card:

Hendricks -125 $50 wins $40

Garza +145 $80 wins $116

Belcher +240 $40 wins $96

Barry/Fergusen  $50 wins $52

Dodson/Linekar/Denis  $80 wins $91

will most likely bet Hathaway and Castillo too

it still amazes me that Miller is -230. Even though i like him to slightly edge out Diaz, I think the line should be -150 max. My most probable play will be Diaz by decision. Has to be at least +250

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#22
Posted: 5/5/2012 10:50:17 AM
A couPle long term parlays
Dodson,Melendez,miocic,Cain,jds,neer,belfort: $20 wins $211
Dodson,ferguson,denis,poirier,Melendez,Cain,jds,werdum: $30 wins $147
I absolutely love neer at +165 over Pyle

I like Hathaway but not enough to lay over -200. Staying away from Castillo/cholish I think. Same with vemola/massenzio: vemola was supposed to beat markes but got out wrestled and massenzio can win or lose any fight
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#23
Posted: 5/5/2012 1:27:07 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bighurt:

i havent seen many people on kos....imo hes got a real good shot here...im hoping i can get him at +$.....not taking anything away from hendricks.....his ko of fitch was impressive but i think its the reason many are on johnny....and i think an early ko like that has a lot to do with luck....if someone gets a finish that quick before the feeling out process has happened i think its a product of right place right time....but either way im betting on kos fighting a smart fight and getting a decision most likely.....bol saturday should be fun to watch

heres somethin crazy... my buddy bets with a bookie but pulls lines off a site. His Kos line went to -400 this morning! +330 hendricks. Wow! someone hit KOS hard if they have to pull out that line to even out their bets

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#24
Posted: 5/5/2012 1:32:55 PM
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#25
Posted: 5/5/2012 3:28:57 PM

updated card:

Hendricks -125 $50 wins $40

Garza +145 $80 wins $116

Belcher +240 $40 wins $96

Barry/Fergusen $50 wins $52

Dodson/Linekar/Denis $80 wins $91

Fergusen/Dodson  $80 wins $48

Miller wins decision +120  $30 wins $36  (b/w the two of them, they've only been stopped once ITD... -190 to go to dec... I think Miller is too tenacious to give Diaz room to box. Miller grinds out a win)

Castillo wins by decision +185  $20 wins $37

here's a funny prop: Barry/Johnson under 2.5 rounds -625. Someone's goin down!

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