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[Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC on Fox 3 |
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sawman |
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#1 Posted: 4/25/2012 6:17:47 PM I'm thinking of making some early plays, so some feedback would be appreciated.
Diaz/Miller - I like Miller but I don't think he should be favored the -225 that he is. I assume this is a 5 rounder. If it's 3 it should go to decision. Even at 5 rounds I don't think either fighter will KO or sub the other. I'm thinking that Miller will dirty box his way to victory. But I also think there's a chance that Diaz can keep distance and win the stand up.
Koscheck/Hendricks - Hendricks has taken over as the favorite. I'm wishing I bet him as a dog. I hope Hendricks Kos him... not sure yet
Palhares/Belcher - If Palhares gets a limb, it's over. But Dan Miller survived, and I think Belcher can too. I am ready to bet this at +240
Fergusen/Johnson - Can someone confirm this. Either Sherdog's stats are messed up, or this is a different Michael Johnson. A British one
Garza/Bermudez - this is another Dog I want to bet ASAP. Bermudez has 3 straight sub losses. Garza is a sub specialist
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trentsteal |
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#2 Posted: 4/25/2012 9:57:23 PM he was on the ultimate fighter on gsp's team |
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deserted |
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#3 Posted: 4/26/2012 12:18:23 AM
I pray to whatever gods that Hendricks knocks out Koscheck every night!
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ctm1985 |
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#4 Posted: 4/26/2012 2:08:01 AM  Also I really like Hendricks over Kos
Diaz vs Miller is for sure 5 rounds, should be a hell of a fight!
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sawman |
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#5 Posted: 4/26/2012 11:20:24 AM |
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ctm1985 |
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#6 Posted: 4/26/2012 12:05:35 PM
I don't think it'll be swinging for the fences, Barry's gonna have a huge speed and technical advantage, think he's going to work those leg kicks, try to wear him down, and like I said I could actually see Barry getting the sub here. He's been saying he wants one, and I think he genuinely wants to improve that part of his game, also he's said he's worried about Johnson's power.
The only thing I'm worried about is Barry finding himself clinched against the fence where Lavar can work uppercuts..
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sawman |
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#7 Posted: 4/26/2012 1:31:50 PM |
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Nicky123 |
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#8 Posted: 4/26/2012 1:43:46 PM
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sawman |
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#9 Posted: 4/26/2012 2:30:09 PM I think Barry has a "bigger beard" than Schaub. All his fights are stand and trade vs always bigger opponents. He has only been KO'd once.
3 early plays I want to jump on because I think the lines get worse
Hendricks -125 $50 wins $40... sick of watchin this line get worse!
Garza +145 $40 wins $58. just looks like a good match up for him
Belcher +240 $40 wins $96... as dangerous as Palhares is, I think these odds are way off |
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ctm1985 |
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#10 Posted: 4/26/2012 8:03:24 PM
Good luck on those sawman, scary betting against Palhares right now 
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sawman |
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#11 Posted: 4/27/2012 9:11:06 AM |
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sawman |
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#12 Posted: 4/27/2012 12:46:02 PM |
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sawman |
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#13 Posted: 4/27/2012 12:47:08 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Nicky123:
I actually like Lavar in this one. I think this fight may look like Schaub against Rothwell. Schaub was favored and when they started exchanging the stronger chin won. I could see Lavar wanting to get close and give Barry all he has. If that doesn't provide a knockout I believe Barry could outlast him. I would be scared if I had a wager on Barry. He could get mauled and put down quite easily. It should be an entertaining fight. Lavar will have a nice size advantage also.
BTW, Nicky, great call on Michael Mac last weekend - I cashed it - hope you did too! |
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ossigor |
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#14 Posted: 4/27/2012 1:58:25 PM
tony ferguson will definitely beat michael johnson, he is a far superior fighter.
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sawman |
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#15 Posted: 4/27/2012 2:37:17 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ossigor:
pat barry has a glass jaw.
tony ferguson will definitely beat michael johnson, he is a far superior fighter.
Barry has only been KO'd once... when he walked into a huge shot by Kongo |
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jonnyg4508 |
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#16 Posted: 4/28/2012 11:50:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Nicky123:
I actually like Lavar in this one. I think this fight may look like Schaub against Rothwell. Schaub was favored and when they started exchanging the stronger chin won. I could see Lavar wanting to get close and give Barry all he has. If that doesn't provide a knockout I believe Barry could outlast him. I would be scared if I had a wager on Barry. He could get mauled and put down quite easily. It should be an entertaining fight. Lavar will have a nice size advantage also.
Not sure how you can say Barry has less of a jaw?
Even if Lavar's is better, I don't see it as a factor.
Not sure why everyone thinks Barry has no jaw?
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sawman |
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#17 Posted: 4/30/2012 3:21:24 PM doubled my Garza bet at +145 - now I have a WHOLE $80 on him!!
I still am liking my Belcher bet even though I seem to be the only guy in the world betting him!... but my ankle is getting sore the more I think about it |
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#18 Posted: 5/1/2012 3:05:54 PM more thoughts:
Dodson/Elliot - Dodson has some serious power in his punches, and a KO is my initial prediction. I also heard him say that he is bitter he wasn't invited to the Flyweight tourney, so he has some extra fire in his belly. Further, Elliot is a very late replacement
Krauss/Hathaway - I think Hathaway has more skill and experience
Gaudinot/Linekar - gaudinot's first fight at 125, I think. Linekar on a great streak outside of UFC. Gaudinout seemed pretty unskilled, but has a big heart. not sure if the move down will help his cause here.
Cholish/Castillo - Cholish is no slouch, but I like castillo's experience, and boring fight style to get the W
Delorme/Denis - Wow! was denis impressive last fight. Delorme stepping in late notice. You gotta think Denis shows that awesome power again
vemola/Massenzio - i don't know what to make of this fight yet |
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Bighurt |
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#19 Posted: 5/1/2012 6:48:44 PM |
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#20 Posted: 5/1/2012 8:50:23 PM |
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sawman |
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#21 Posted: 5/3/2012 5:26:41 PM updated card:
Hendricks -125 $50 wins $40
Garza +145 $80 wins $116
Belcher +240 $40 wins $96
Barry/Fergusen $50 wins $52
Dodson/Linekar/Denis $80 wins $91
will most likely bet Hathaway and Castillo too
it still amazes me that Miller is -230. Even though i like him to slightly edge out Diaz, I think the line should be -150 max. My most probable play will be Diaz by decision. Has to be at least +250 |
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#22 Posted: 5/5/2012 10:50:17 AM
Dodson,Melendez,miocic,Cain,jds,neer,belfort: $20 wins $211
Dodson,ferguson,denis,poirier,Melendez,Cain,jds,werdum: $30 wins $147
I absolutely love neer at +165 over Pyle
I like Hathaway but not enough to lay over -200. Staying away from Castillo/cholish I think. Same with vemola/massenzio: vemola was supposed to beat markes but got out wrestled and massenzio can win or lose any fight |
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#23 Posted: 5/5/2012 1:27:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Bighurt:
i havent seen many people on kos....imo hes got a real good shot here...im hoping i can get him at +$.....not taking anything away from hendricks.....his ko of fitch was impressive but i think its the reason many are on johnny....and i think an early ko like that has a lot to do with luck....if someone gets a finish that quick before the feeling out process has happened i think its a product of right place right time....but either way im betting on kos fighting a smart fight and getting a decision most likely.....bol saturday should be fun to watch
heres somethin crazy... my buddy bets with a bookie but pulls lines off a site. His Kos line went to -400 this morning! +330 hendricks. Wow! someone hit KOS hard if they have to pull out that line to even out their bets |
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#24 Posted: 5/5/2012 1:32:55 PM  |
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sawman |
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#25 Posted: 5/5/2012 3:28:57 PM updated card:
Hendricks -125 $50 wins $40
Garza +145 $80 wins $116
Belcher +240 $40 wins $96
Barry/Fergusen $50 wins $52
Dodson/Linekar/Denis $80 wins $91
Fergusen/Dodson $80 wins $48
Miller wins decision +120 $30 wins $36 (b/w the two of them, they've only been stopped once ITD... -190 to go to dec... I think Miller is too tenacious to give Diaz room to box. Miller grinds out a win)
Castillo wins by decision +185 $20 wins $37
here's a funny prop: Barry/Johnson under 2.5 rounds -625. Someone's goin down! |
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