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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: 143
Smok30nTh15 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Smok30nTh15
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#1
Posted: 2/3/2012 5:57:17 PM
QUOTEAfter last week, which was horrible, I will probably make few if any plays.  But, this is a very interesting card coming up with a lot of potential future superstars.  

Before continuing:

Originally Posted by Smok30nTh15:

 

Thing started off good then went bad.  I suppose a quick recap of my betting history is in order if I'm to establish any credibility after this disastrous night.  

Long story short is that I'm quite new to the world of gambling.  I decided to start betting on fights because I was able to predict a large number of events quite accurately.  I figured I could just as easily bet a  buck here and there and make money for watching fights, as opposed to watching solely for entertainment purposes and making nothing. 

Until recently, I usually bet on one or 2 fights a card at most and no parlays.  However, not to long ago, at UFC 139, I made about 40+ units using guess what...parlays!  I also was one fight away from hitting a 12 man parlay and earning an additional 300+ units on the very same event.   The good thing about parlays is that they provide monstrous payouts and the obvious bad thing is that their hard to hit.  I don't plan to abandon them, however, unless things start to go disastrously bad.  

In addition to this forum I attend mmashare quite often and we regularly participate in a tournament called the CRI, which is essentially just a pick em type event where the member with the most correct fights wins the tournament.  In the Last 4 tournaments I have been runner up twice, UFC 139 & UFC 142, both times predicting every single match up save one correctly, though at UFC 142 my incorrect pick was Eric Silva, who actually won the fight but was controversially DQed (so in effect I had a perfect record for that card).  

My name on that forum is MannyFresh!  And, I am prominent member there; therefore, for anyone who is interested this can all be verified.  Anyway the point of this is to say that I believe my gambling style, parlays or no, over the long haul will ultimately be profitable.  In fact, it it has been very profitable for me already.  I just haven't been here to document it.  As luck would have it, I happened to join and start posting plays during a slump.  

I wouldn't blame anyone for not following me atm or even fading me but this essentially is the reasoning behind my betting style.  I will be back next week for 143 and I will comb over my plays with a fine-toothed comb.  Gratz to all the cappers who made out bandits this week and best of luck to everyone on the next card as well.  

So, that's a summary of the situation.  Again I wouldn't advise tailing me but I will nonetheless continue to post plays in order to establish a record here.  
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Smok30nTh15 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Smok30nTh15
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#2
Posted: 2/3/2012 6:36:31 PM
Initial Thoughts:

Riddle vs Martinez - Riddle is one of my favorite fighters ever since his season on TuF.  That being said, he has some holes in his game, most notably his stand up.  He's also one of those wrestlers who doesn't posses a remarkably good shot.  What he does have, however, is a remarkably good chin and perseverance.  Martinez has a good looking record but he's mostly fought bums.  Even worse is he's a extremely small for WW, standing at 5'7 and small enough to fight at 145, as evidenced in his bout against Reis.  Riddle on the other hand is one of the biggest WWs around.  I wish I had more info on Martinez but seeing as I don't I won't be making a play on this fight.  Riddle has fought the tougher competition and if worst comes to worst could just lay on Matinez for the win but as already stated I'm laying off on this match.  As an interesting aside though, it should be noted that Riddle would be a solid fighter to take the over on in almost any situation, as his stand up doesn't look to be improving any time soon and he therefore poses no threat on the feet.  In addition, his extremely durable chin and wrestling abilities allow him to survive matches in which he is outclassed in virtually every aspect of the game, such as the case with his last match against Benoist.  

Brown vs. Cope - Neither man is good.  Brown gets a lot of love from fans and I'm not sure why.  His stand up looks pretty decent at times but he literally is a .50 fighter and even if you're sure he's more talented than his opponent Brown will always find a way to lose.  Perhaps I'm biased as it was brown who cost me my 300 unit 12 man parlay a few events past but these are my initial thoughts on this match up.  That being said, gun to the head I'd choose Brown.  

Poirier vs. Holloway - Interesting match up because Holloway could be a future contender.  As for Dustin, he looks nasty but his stand up reminds me of Shalorus in that he throws nothing but hooks to the point of exhaustion.  Unlike Shalrous; however, Dustin can actually land his hooks and has stood toe to toe with some decent strikers.  Dustin will also utilize takedowns if needed, as demonstrated in his match up against Grispi and has some pretty decent jits, as evidenced by his subbing of Garza.  In short Dustin isn't a 1 dimensional fighter but he is very 1D in the stand up.  I have yet to look at any of Holloway's fights yet but from his highlight vid it looks like he'll be able to hold his own on the feet with Poirier.  In fact, I think his stand up is better but that's a pretty strong statement considering I haven't seen any of his fights yet.  I think this will ultimately come down to who has better grappling skills, as if Poirier is feeling it on the feet he will attempt to take the fight to the mat.  This is definitely a match to watch whether or not you have money riding on it. 

Herman vs. Starks - Fade the darn out of Starks.  If I do make a play on this card this will probably be it.  I faded Jacoby last week on Fox 2 solely because both he and Starks looked absolutely horrible in their debuts inside the Octagon. Starks has virtually no stand up and on the ground very little jitz ability.  He's a wrestler, so you always have to wonder about him getting the nod should the fight go to decision but from what I remember he shoots very little if at all.  Herman I believe will have the jits to sub Starks on the ground and he will most definitely have the stand up to whoop his behind on  the feet. 

Kosceck vs. Pierce - People underestimate the hell out of Koscheck's wrestling ability but that's because he rarely uses it.  Instead Koscheck relies on his very 1D stand up, which boils down to him just looking for a 1 punch knockout over and over again.  Pierce should have much prettier stand up but I don't know if he is entirely skilled enough to handle Kosheck should this fight remain on the feet.  I lean towards Koscheck and this one of those fights I'd normally stick in a parlay after rewatching footage from both fighters. 

Nelson vs. Werdum - Nelson has great value here as essentially Werdum will do nothing but look to flop on his back should he not like the stand up.  Roy, however, is very good on ground and is a long time black belt and quarter finalist in the 2003 ADCC championships.  People who like to bet dogs should give this match a bit of a look up.  

Diaz vs. condit - This is a match up that has everyone divided.  I like Condit and think he's good but even whilst questioning Diaz's competition how could you fade the guy?  Straight up I can see Condit's stand up causing problems for Diaz but on the ground I seriously see Diaz owning Condit.  However, as everyone knows the Diaz bros have garbage wrestling ability.  Gun to the head I'd pick Diaz.  As a bettor analyzing which fighter has better value though, I'd pick Condit all the way.  This fight should be a pick up, not having Condit as almost a 200+ underdog.  

The rest of the matches - I have to watch footage on those fighters but since I don't really feel like playing much on this card I probably won't get around to it.  

BOL everyone.  
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Jaybirdy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Jaybirdy
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#3
Posted: 2/4/2012 5:54:29 PM

Thanks for the insight sir.  Good stuff there.

Best of luck on your plays !!

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