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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: How is it that Nick Diaz is a 2 to 1 favorite over Condit?
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#26
Posted: 2/1/2012 1:37:11 PM

Plus i never said Condit was a lock or i didnt brag about or hate on you guys for taking Diaz, all im saying is that i feel condit has the value here in this fight. Diaz is the more well known fighter, has fought the bigger name guys and i think that adds a bit to him being more favored than he is.. I NEVER SAID DIAZ Shouldnt be the favorite by the way johnny, i said i feel Diaz shouldnt be a -200 or more favorite, big difference..

 

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#27
Posted: 2/1/2012 1:38:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

wow dude, you need to chill out... you seem to take things personal..  Diaz is the one who is -200 here, i just think he should be lower, you are taking things out of proportion.  No value in a losing fighter? obviously so you are telling me if you got condit at +300 you wouldnt take that? how high would condit have to be for you to take him?  And if you are so confident in diaz why did you say earlier you werent going to bet it?

 




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#28
Posted: 2/1/2012 1:39:18 PM
all this thread was saying that Diaz should not be a 2 to 1 favorite.

THAT IS ALL
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Posted: 2/1/2012 1:49:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

wow dude, you need to chill out... you seem to take things personal..  Diaz is the one who is -200 here, i just think he should be lower, you are taking things out of proportion.  No value in a losing fighter? obviously so you are telling me if you got condit at +300 you wouldnt take that? how high would condit have to be for you to take him?  And if you are so confident in diaz why did you say earlier you werent going to bet it?

I don't bet all the fights.  I should have jumped on it earlier.  -200 is about spot on I said. 

I tend to take it too personal because I'm sort of sick of people down grading what Diaz has done.  There are less people who do it now, and I assume there will be less after this fight.  But I still feel people don't like him, so they don't give him his due credit.  As seen with the Penn fight.  Many of the same people who picked Penn as the favorite...bet their own money on him as a favorite...now say he is too old.  "Big deal Diaz beat a washed up Penn."  Too me that makes no sense.  People will try to find anyway possible to discredit Diaz.

When discussing this fight...I just don't see any valid points backing Condit.  The best point is that Diaz cuts easy..that one is valid.  But from what we have seen from both guys...where is Condit better?  He is a better kicker.  But Diaz doesn't even bother with kicks.  He goes forward and keeps his hands in your face.  I haven't seen one point that is in favor of Condit.  

Just seems like a broken record of the same people saying Diaz has no power, his boxing is overrated, and so on.  Yet each fight they are proven wrong.  People said he better not stand with Daley.  They were wrong.  People said Penn was better.  Too good for Diaz.  They were wrong.

Like I said.  I'm not a career better.  I don't make a living off this.  I am a MMA fan that bets for fun and maybe to make a little cash.  I don't need to bet every fight.  I just don't see any facts or reasons why -200 is so ridiculous of a line?

Sorry if I seem a little too overboard.  But I hate when no one brings REAL insight when discussing a fight.  All I have heard in the thread is Diaz is a bigger name..so the line is inflated.  And Diaz cuts easy.  As for actual skills, Diaz has Condit beat pretty much everywhere.  And has better cardio with a great chin.  So why should he not be in the -200 range?

Don't we think Condit is being overrated because he had a couple flashy stoppages over very average WWs?  Or is that just dismissed while Diaz's name value is pointed out?

I think the fact that Diaz line immediately changed is a sign.  Public money doesn't bet that early.  They don't have their money tied up that long.  The sharp money consistently came in on Diaz until it got to where it is.

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#30
Posted: 2/1/2012 1:52:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by frank the tank:

all this thread was saying that Diaz should not be a 2 to 1 favorite.

THAT IS ALL


That is completely fine. 

But here we are on the 2nd page...and what info is in here to back up that thought?

I come here for insight and to give any insight or points I find valid.  Not just to blindly saying Diaz shouldn't be -200. 

What would be a realistic line for Diaz?  Which line was closer? +105 for Diaz or -200? 

I'm just looking for a reason to take a different look at this fight.  And I really haven't heard any.
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#31
Posted: 2/1/2012 1:54:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:

I don't bet all the fights.  I should have jumped on it earlier.  -200 is about spot on I said. 

I tend to take it too personal because I'm sort of sick of people down grading what Diaz has done.  There are less people who do it now, and I assume there will be less after this fight.  But I still feel people don't like him, so they don't give him his due credit.  As seen with the Penn fight.  Many of the same people who picked Penn as the favorite...bet their own money on him as a favorite...now say he is too old.  "Big deal Diaz beat a washed up Penn."  Too me that makes no sense.  People will try to find anyway possible to discredit Diaz.

When discussing this fight...I just don't see any valid points backing Condit.  The best point is that Diaz cuts easy..that one is valid.  But from what we have seen from both guys...where is Condit better?  He is a better kicker.  But Diaz doesn't even bother with kicks.  He goes forward and keeps his hands in your face.  I haven't seen one point that is in favor of Condit.  

Just seems like a broken record of the same people saying Diaz has no power, his boxing is overrated, and so on.  Yet each fight they are proven wrong.  People said he better not stand with Daley.  They were wrong.  People said Penn was better.  Too good for Diaz.  They were wrong.

Like I said.  I'm not a career better.  I don't make a living off this.  I am a MMA fan that bets for fun and maybe to make a little cash.  I don't need to bet every fight.  I just don't see any facts or reasons why -200 is so ridiculous of a line?

Sorry if I seem a little too overboard.  But I hate when no one brings REAL insight when discussing a fight.  All I have heard in the thread is Diaz is a bigger name..so the line is inflated.  And Diaz cuts easy.  As for actual skills, Diaz has Condit beat pretty much everywhere.  And has better cardio with a great chin.  So why should he not be in the -200 range?

Don't we think Condit is being overrated because he had a couple flashy stoppages over very average WWs?  Or is that just dismissed while Diaz's name value is pointed out?

I think the fact that Diaz line immediately changed is a sign.  Public money doesn't bet that early.  They don't have their money tied up that long.  The sharp money consistently came in on Diaz until it got to where it is.

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#32
Posted: 2/1/2012 1:59:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MoneyShot:



More non-constructive discussion.

I thought this was a place to discuss.  Maybe even argue points.  I've got info here before that was very helpful.

There is nothing helpful about just saying Diaz shouldn't be -200 without discussing why.

Maybe I'm on the wrong forum...I don't know.  People just like to come into a thread and post a shamrock for luck.  Or a hand shake for whatever reason.

Best of luck on your plays. 
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#33
Posted: 2/1/2012 2:07:34 PM

GL whatever you guys choose to bet on. I think we went over the important reasons backing both fighters.  If Diaz was lower i would consider betting him for sure but -200 a bit too high... We definitely have a difference of opinion and i think there was some misunderstandings on what i was trying to say...

So im satisfied. I hope this is a good fight, im not betting big at all. Small play on condit or no play for me. If i dont bet on condit for whatever reason, or i have  a change of heart, i hope Diaz wins because i would love to see a GSP vs Diaz matchup...

Im done talking about this fight though, i think we went over everything... we agree to disagree. GL.

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#34
Posted: 2/1/2012 2:08:21 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:



More non-constructive discussion.

I thought this was a place to discuss.  Maybe even argue points.  I've got info here before that was very helpful.

There is nothing helpful about just saying Diaz shouldn't be -200 without discussing why.

Maybe I'm on the wrong forum...I don't know.  People just like to come into a thread and post a shamrock for luck.  Or a hand shake for whatever reason.

Best of luck on your plays. 

lol wow, i was just saying peace, i read what you wrote and its fine by me.. geez man..

 

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#35
Posted: 2/1/2012 2:11:06 PM

I was just acknowledging u and leaving it at that. A peaceful finish... i said my peace, you said yours. we agree to disagree, leave it at that. Im okay with it...

Its not a big deal to me... If condit wins or loses, it wont bother me at all. This is going to be a small bet either way and like i said i wouldnt mind seeing Diaz win to setup a big hyped matchup with GSP...

 

 

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Posted: 2/1/2012 2:15:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:



That is completely fine. 

But here we are on the 2nd page...and what info is in here to back up that thought?

I come here for insight and to give any insight or points I find valid.  Not just to blindly saying Diaz shouldn't be -200. 

What would be a realistic line for Diaz?  Which line was closer? +105 for Diaz or -200? 

I'm just looking for a reason to take a different look at this fight.  And I really haven't heard any.


I don't think Diaz is overrated but I think his level of competition is. If you ask me I'll take

I've already said I think Condit can take Diaz down and will use a variety of attacks on Diaz. I think his stamina is better than the past few opponents of Diaz.

Lets see Condit's last 5 opponents Kim, Hardy, MacDonald, Ellenberger, Kampman

Diaz last 5 opponents Penn, Daley, Santos, Noons, Sakurai.
I don't know about you but I'm more impressed by Condit's resume. You can talk about the Penn/Daley fight all you want but everyone knows Penn's gas tank it limited and his best weight is 155. And Daley he's not very versatile although the way Diaz beat him was quite impressive.

And your reasoning that people "hate" Diaz that's why they discredit him is not true. I love Diaz...he's one of my favorite fights. I'm just not going to ride his nuts and pretend he's some kind of juggernaut.
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#37
Posted: 2/1/2012 2:21:06 PM
the main concern for Condit backers should be the body punching of Diaz. He's the only MMA fighter that consistently goes to the body. Condit cannot get stuck against the cage and take those.



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#38
Posted: 2/1/2012 2:30:40 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:



It is true.  He broke Penn.  But either way he left Penn a mess.  Worst beating ever.  Basically made him want to retire.

I just don't see what Condit has in striking?  He has some wild power.  He throws some heavy shots I guess.  But is his boxing technical?  Is his kickboxing/MT even technical? 

BJ Penn had the best style to mess Diaz up standing.  He throws his punches straight down the pipe.  Through Diaz's looping guard.  Condit is not that fighter. 

Yea, that is why he brought in Diaz.  But don't you think he could find a Pro Boxer with that style?  Boxer's know an endless amount of boxing sparring partners.  Doesn't it say something when he asks Diaz...an MMA fighter, to help him spar for one of his biggest fights of his life?  Most boxers don't even respect MMA fighters skills.  I'm sure if he was just looking for a style to give him a look, that he could have found a similar Pro Boxer. 

People look at the way the Diaz brothers throw their punches.  And they just refuse to believe that they are real good.  They refuse to acknowledge that their volume of punches DO hurt.  Ask Cerrone.  Ask Penn.  I love when guys say they don't have much power.  So KOing Paul Daley in round 1 is not power?  KOing a guy like Robbie Lawler...a big 185er with 1 punch, is not power?  Then what is power?  They just don't throw wild haymakers much.  They realize volume, accurate punching is way more effective. 

They end up out lasting and out striking anyone they stand with.  Both of them.  They lose to wrestlers.  Condit is less of a wrestler than Diaz is. 

Diaz isn't getting flying knee'd.  Condit is getting out struck.  Or at the very least out-lasted.  And if it goes to the ground somehow, Diaz is superior.  If Condit messes around he will get sub'd.  He has been sub'd more than once in his life.  He is what?  A purple belt?  Diaz is a Gracie blackbelt. 

lawler was one of diaz's best wins. at ww, lawler was a young wrecking machine beast. if i remember correctly, i read somewhere that he was bench-pressing 400 pounds. i met him here in mexico and although solid he did not appear to be that big. he is just one of those freakishly strong dudes wiht very heavy hands.

th reason i think that this fight should be closer to even money is that i dont think the fight will go to the ground where i believe diaz's known cardio and bjj is superior to that of condits. i believe that they will stand and trade where diaz's boxing advantaged is equalled out by condits power.

diaz chose to stand with noons even though noons at the time was thought to be the better striker and was definately the inferior ground fighter. i think this fight will be the same as diaz will keep this standing(he recently brought in wbc mw&lhw world champion muy thai specialists) and he either gets caught or cut(his defense is his offense) or condit capitulates thorugh accumulated damage as all of diaz's prior opponents.

the fight is not worth betting on and if there is any value it would have to be on condit for this reason.

 

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#39
Posted: 2/1/2012 2:32:23 PM
Yeah and rory McDonald would be a fav over any of those guys Diaz fought. We can all agree to that... That is a guarantee..
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#40
Posted: 2/1/2012 3:10:29 PM

Diaz wasn't always a 2-1 fave, pinnacle opened diaz @ -134, obv he's a huge public fave! Also I dont think condit is very popular, and some neat info ,

Hardy opened at -170 vs condit ....

 

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#41
Posted: 2/1/2012 3:11:59 PM
this is going to be an exciting fight and the line is spot on where it should be.
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Posted: 2/1/2012 3:41:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by frank the tank:



I don't think Diaz is overrated but I think his level of competition is. If you ask me I'll take

I've already said I think Condit can take Diaz down and will use a variety of attacks on Diaz. I think his stamina is better than the past few opponents of Diaz.

Lets see Condit's last 5 opponents Kim, Hardy, MacDonald, Ellenberger, Kampman

Diaz last 5 opponents Penn, Daley, Santos, Noons, Sakurai.
I don't know about you but I'm more impressed by Condit's resume. You can talk about the Penn/Daley fight all you want but everyone knows Penn's gas tank it limited and his best weight is 155. And Daley he's not very versatile although the way Diaz beat him was quite impressive.

And your reasoning that people "hate" Diaz that's why they discredit him is not true. I love Diaz...he's one of my favorite fights. I'm just not going to ride his nuts and pretend he's some kind of juggernaut.


It is a valid point that his level of competition hasn't been as high, he has been stuck in SF since Dana didn't want him back in the UFC.  So he had to fight who he had to fight. 

But lets all be honest, we all believe this is going to be mostly a standup fight. 

So lets see who has seen the better stand up fighters.

Diaz:

Penn- Say what you will, he is still a technical boxer and a crafty vet.  People never want to say Penn gassed out fast because of the pressure Diaz put on him.  Hard to breath with 5 punch combos coming at you.

Daley- Many said the best or at least most explosive striker at WW when he was in the UFC.  Obviously 1 dimensional, but Diaz didn't even look to take the easy submission.  He beat him standing.

Noons- Again say what you will but they guy has pro boxing and kickboxing experience and has a good record in both.  He is a solid striker.

Zaromskis- I'm not going to act like he is world class.  But he is a talented kickboxer and Diaz stopped him in 1 round.

Lawler- A KO specialist.  Way bigger than Diaz.  Diaz took shots and KO'd Robbie with a clean 1 punch.  STILL the only time Robbie has ever been KO'd or TKO'd.

Who has Condit faced as of late?

Kim- Not a striker.  Was impressive that he swept him from bottom.  But he flying knee'd an average fighter who is a grappler.

Hardy- He is hot garbage.  Never was as good of a striker as the UFC made him out to be to promote that ridiculous title shot.  At least it was a nice KO.

Rory- I realize Rory is a great prospect.  But he is not a striker.  Condit had his behind handed to him for most all the fight.  Credit him for surviving the onslaught from the 20 year old kid.

Ellenberger- Is not a striker.  He has power.  But he is not a striker.

Kampmann- The best striker he has fought in the UFC.  Actually EVER.  And he lost.  To give Condit credit it was by split.  But he lost.

So who really has seen the better opponents?

I mean unless you really believe Condit can win with wrestling.  I myself think Diaz has better wrestling.  But there really isn't any advantage.  If Condit does happen to take him down, Diaz is the better BJJ grappler.  I'm not sure the last time Condit even used wrestling.  I highly doubt he can smother Diaz.  That is basically the only way Diaz has lost fights.

So in my opinion I think Diaz has fought the much better strikers.  And even though he could have sub'd half of them...he chose to stand and bang it out...and he won all of them besides Noons cutting him up.  And I think this is a standup fight.  If it isn't I will be disappointed because I a, really excited for this fight.



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#43
Posted: 2/1/2012 3:51:35 PM
I also think the Cerrone/Nate fight is worth looking at. 

Cerrone had no problem with cardio...yet he looked pretty tired to me.  It is because the Diaz brothers can tire you out fast.  When you have combo's coming at you non stop it is hard to gather yourself and breath.  Cerrone was/is a very solid kickboxer.  Sort of like Condit in a way...yet that didn't matter vs. Nate's boxing. 

Different fighters, different weight, but I think stylistically it is very similar.  Nate is almost a mirror image of Nick.  And Cerrone to me brings many of the same tools as Condit. 
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#44
Posted: 2/1/2012 5:58:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:



It is a valid point that his level of competition hasn't been as high, he has been stuck in SF since Dana didn't want him back in the UFC.  So he had to fight who he had to fight. 

But lets all be honest, we all believe this is going to be mostly a standup fight. 

So lets see who has seen the better stand up fighters.

Diaz:

Penn- Say what you will, he is still a technical boxer and a crafty vet.  People never want to say Penn gassed out fast because of the pressure Diaz put on him.  Hard to breath with 5 punch combos coming at you.

Daley- Many said the best or at least most explosive striker at WW when he was in the UFC.  Obviously 1 dimensional, but Diaz didn't even look to take the easy submission.  He beat him standing.

Noons- Again say what you will but they guy has pro boxing and kickboxing experience and has a good record in both.  He is a solid striker.

Zaromskis- I'm not going to act like he is world class.  But he is a talented kickboxer and Diaz stopped him in 1 round.

Lawler- A KO specialist.  Way bigger than Diaz.  Diaz took shots and KO'd Robbie with a clean 1 punch.  STILL the only time Robbie has ever been KO'd or TKO'd.

Who has Condit faced as of late?

Kim- Not a striker.  Was impressive that he swept him from bottom.  But he flying knee'd an average fighter who is a grappler.

Hardy- He is hot garbage.  Never was as good of a striker as the UFC made him out to be to promote that ridiculous title shot.  At least it was a nice KO.

Rory- I realize Rory is a great prospect.  But he is not a striker.  Condit had his behind handed to him for most all the fight.  Credit him for surviving the onslaught from the 20 year old kid.

Ellenberger- Is not a striker.  He has power.  But he is not a striker.

Kampmann- The best striker he has fought in the UFC.  Actually EVER.  And he lost.  To give Condit credit it was by split.  But he lost.

So who really has seen the better opponents?

I mean unless you really believe Condit can win with wrestling.  I myself think Diaz has better wrestling.  But there really isn't any advantage.  If Condit does happen to take him down, Diaz is the better BJJ grappler.  I'm not sure the last time Condit even used wrestling.  I highly doubt he can smother Diaz.  That is basically the only way Diaz has lost fights.

So in my opinion I think Diaz has fought the much better strikers.  And even though he could have sub'd half of them...he chose to stand and bang it out...and he won all of them besides Noons cutting him up.  And I think this is a standup fight.  If it isn't I will be disappointed because I a, really excited for this fight.





Again like I said Diaz beat Penn because of his amazing stamina and Penn's lack of stamina. Throwing a billion punches and continuously coming forward will surely tire you. That is why it is important for Condit to use angles and not go straight back.

I mean why even bring up Nate Diaz vs. Cerrone? You mention Condit struggling against MacDonald but do you not remember MacDonald dominated Nick's brother Nate? You say Kim is overrated but do you remember Kim beating Nick's brother Nate? I mean not sure why we are even bringing up other fighters but just saying.

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#45
Posted: 2/1/2012 6:01:21 PM
I am by far more impressed by Condit's competition than Diaz. Before the Daley/Diaz fight Daley got a gift decision against Masividal.

None of Diaz opponents are currently in the top 10 welterweights. When you look at Condits some of them are still there.
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Posted: 2/1/2012 6:45:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by frank the tank:



I mean why even bring up Nate Diaz vs. Cerrone? You mention Condit struggling against MacDonald but do you not remember MacDonald dominated Nick's brother Nate? You say Kim is overrated but do you remember Kim beating Nick's brother Nate? I mean not sure why we are even bringing up other fighters but just saying.



Um perhaps because the styles are alike?  I don't even get what you are saying here?  Why do I care if 170lbs beat Nate Diaz?  Those guys are wrestlers.  Diaz and Condit are not.

I am simply saying Cerrone was touted as a better striker than Nate because he had movement and kicks...yet he was destroyed by Nate's boxing.  Cerrone has many of the same tools as Condit does and Nate is a mirror image of Nate.

What are you even babbling about?  I'm not using MMA math.  I am saying that stylistically...just like people thought Cerrone had an advantage with multiple different strikes...some people think Condit can use a variety of strikes to beat Diaz.  I'm just saying that the Diaz brothers style of boxing is kryptonite  to the style that Cerrone or Condit bring.

Not sure why you are bring up Kim or Rory when they are wrestlers that don't match the style of anyone I'm talking about?  You are really confusing.
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Posted: 2/1/2012 6:48:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by frank the tank:

I am by far more impressed by Condit's competition than Diaz. Before the Daley/Diaz fight Daley got a gift decision against Masividal.

None of Diaz opponents are currently in the top 10 welterweights. When you look at Condits some of them are still there.


I'm not saying Diaz has fought better guys.  You are missing my whole point and I don't even know why I have to explain it again.

Diaz has fought better strikers.  And has beat them with striking.  To me that means a lot more in a fight that we all expect to be mostly a stand up fight.  Diaz is proven vs. many dangerous and technical strikers.  The best striker Condit has ever fought is Kampmann...and he lost.  So I would say Condit hasn't ever proven he can handle top level strikers such as Diaz. 

I really didn't think my posts were that confusing.  Maybe I am being confusing.  I don't know.


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#48
Posted: 2/1/2012 6:56:08 PM
Condit will KO diaz.....bet the KO!!
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Posted: 2/1/2012 8:21:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:



I'm not saying Diaz has fought better guys.  You are missing my whole point and I don't even know why I have to explain it again.

Diaz has fought better strikers.  And has beat them with striking.  To me that means a lot more in a fight that we all expect to be mostly a stand up fight.  Diaz is proven vs. many dangerous and technical strikers.  The best striker Condit has ever fought is Kampmann...and he lost.  So I would say Condit hasn't ever proven he can handle top level strikers such as Diaz. 

I really didn't think my posts were that confusing.  Maybe I am being confusing.  I don't know.




Well all I'm saying is that Condit is probably the most well rounded guy that he has probably ever fought. Penn might be more well rounded but he has always had stamina issues and is better at 155.
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frank the tank
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#50
Posted: 2/2/2012 12:45:03 AM
On another forum someone was spreading a rumor that Condit was sick and said in this interview he sounded like he was. I honestly think he sounds the same so take it for what its worth


http://youtu.be/nBVM5cE6Ahg
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