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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC on Fox 2
ctm1985 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
ctm1985
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#1
Posted: 1/26/2012 8:20:52 PM
2012 MMA Record: 7-7 (+0.72u)

Alright then, I'll be the only idiot on Bisping.  Weidman is the big play though, I think alot of people will be talking about him after this Saturday..

Chris Weidman -140
8.4u to win 6u

Michael Bisping +380
1.5u to win 5.7u

Rashad + Oliveira
4u to win 3.4u

Rashad by TKO +240
1u to win 2.4u

John-Olav Einemo +135
2u to win 2.7u

George Roop +125
2u to win 2.5u

Lavar Johnson +170
2u to win 3.4u

Good luck everyone
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#2
Posted: 1/26/2012 8:36:45 PM

I'm glad to see we're thinking alike. except...

I think Bisping is a lot better than most give him credit. But Sonnen's wrestling is so good it overshadows everyone else's strengths. I can't see Bisping defending. Sonnen is a bad match up for EVERYONE. But you know that, and I understand you grabbing the big line.

I really value your opinion. And you and a few others are selling me on Weidman.

are you thinking decisions for Count, Lavar, and Weidman?

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#3
Posted: 1/26/2012 9:36:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sawman:

I'm glad to see we're thinking alike. except...

I think Bisping is a lot better than most give him credit. But Sonnen's wrestling is so good it overshadows everyone else's strengths. I can't see Bisping defending. Sonnen is a bad match up for EVERYONE. But you know that, and I understand you grabbing the big line.

I really value your opinion. And you and a few others are selling me on Weidman.

are you thinking decisions for Count, Lavar, and Weidman?



Yeah I don't blame you or anyone else for betting/parlaying Sonnen!  It's a bad matchup for Bisping considering the opponents that have put him on his back in his career, and Sonnen is ELITE.  And he looked as good as ever in the Stann fight.  But yeah it's still just too big of a line in my eyes against a guy like Bisping. 

This isn't like Tito at +400 over Rashad, Bisping is still in his prime and has won his last 4 fights.. Sonnen is solid but he's got all of those submission losses and he cuts easily.  With how big takedowns and control are though I can't really see Bisping winning a decision...think he'll need a stoppage of some kind.  Like you said alot don't give Bisping credit, but he has a solid UFC record and a good game - great cardio, striking, and good BJJ.  He may come up short against Sonnen but we'll see!

Weidman I love in his fight.. it would be so damn sweet if he just Marquardt's Maia and gets the KO in round 1, but Maia's a tough person and his standup's been looking good.  But I really like Weidman because I am extremely confident that Maia won't submit him, and Weidman will get the takedowns when/if he goes for them.  Can't forget he faced Sakara in his UFC debut also on short notice and dominated.  He sounds very confident.. I liked what he said at the PC today, that this fight was do or die, that he can't afford to lose this just because he came in on short notice.  This is his way to the title and he knows he has the BJJ, wrestling, and power to beat Maia.  Huge step up the ladder.

Lavar Johnson is a real gamble, I'm a little unsure about that one.  I bet it because Beltran likes to slug it out and Johnson has power, and poised hard striking.  I'm hoping he hurts Beltran, because if he doesn't, he'll probably gas within 1.5 rounds (especially if Beltran brings his clinching/wrestling), and may give up.  So yeah, just going with the big dog in a HW slugfest there.
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#4
Posted: 1/26/2012 9:57:48 PM

another positive i see for sonnen is even though he changed opponents late, bisping and stann are very similar. good striking. decent subs.

another positive i see for maia is weidman's late notice. a positive for weidman is he has absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain. no pressure. i have a feeling this line is going to chnage dramatically near fight time.i think "the sharps" will hit it hard late. not sure what side though.

who ya like in superbowl? im leaning NYG +3 -120 right now. i had a great conf finals. i hit balt +9 and NE money line. then hit NYG hard. a alt line at +7.5 -280. i bad bet a prop on Gronk TD. won back my MMA loses!

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#5
Posted: 1/26/2012 10:22:00 PM
Yeah, and from what Sonnen has been saying, he doesn't believe in "training camps" and changing things up specifically for one fighter.  Just trains his behind off and imposes his game.

I think Weidman's line goes up, he has the right style and confidence, I think the fact that it opened at like -300 or something is very telling..

And man, I gotta say I like the Patriots -2.5.  I did lose badly in the wildcard & divisional rounds, but I nailed the conference games, and I think NE wins with revenge on their mind.  Giants tend to screw me though.

I think it goes back to 2007, a buddy of mine bet me straight up in the 4th quarter that the Giants would win the SB over the Pats, haha it was one of my first NFL bets ever.  I have hit every single Superbowl since.  f I miss this one I'd be pretty bummed
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#6
Posted: 1/26/2012 10:52:37 PM
GL brah i like them all pretty much other then the bisping bet 
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#7
Posted: 1/27/2012 12:55:06 PM

I ll ride  Roop and Johnson with you ctm .  Good luck with the rest of the card  I cant put a finger on those matches .

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#8
Posted: 1/27/2012 12:57:34 PM
Good thing we caUGHT THAT rOOP LINE EARLY. mine is now -115
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#9
Posted: 1/27/2012 2:31:46 PM
I am going to change my Maia pick today as well after I see the Weigh ins. That is the thing that scares me with Weidman, on Twitter on Monday he said he was 204 and is usually 197 the Monday before a fight. If he does not look worn down I am going on Weidman as well.
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#10
Posted: 1/28/2012 2:23:43 AM
Thanks guys, hope we have a good night tomorrow

I had to add this play earlier today when I saw the line:

Beltran/Johnson won't start rd 3 -105
2.1u to win 2u

Beltran looked to be in good shape at the weigh-ins and has lost weight.  I figure if Lavar fails to finish Beltran in the first 3 minutes and gasses badly, Beltran is going to overwhelm him for the finish, so I'm playing this as kind of a hedge.  Hopefully I can hit both though!
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#11
Posted: 1/28/2012 12:36:18 PM
Adding one more:

Weidman wins SOTN +1800
1u to win 18u

That line is off.  Maia SOTN is at +500, Weidman at +1800??  Taking this fight on short notice, and especially if he subs a guy like Maia (which is very possible here), you gotta think they would give him the bonus.
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#12
Posted: 1/28/2012 12:46:42 PM

best of luck tonight, bud

thanks for all the input on weidman

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#13
Posted: 1/28/2012 9:28:12 PM
So far +4.9u with 4.5u pending on Rashad. 

I wasn't really planning on this but Davis' line is way up there, so 1u on Davis at +191.
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#14
Posted: 1/28/2012 10:19:55 PM
Rashad dominated, Davis had nothing!

4-5, +6.3u

Recovered from the huge UFC Brazil loss and made it all up last weekend, and now up 7u overall.  Good start to the year
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#15
Posted: 1/29/2012 1:23:37 PM

good job CTM. Had a postive night myself. despite having all you star cappers picking weidman, i never did pull the trigger. I was right that it was going to be a razor thin decision though.

i'm glad sonnen snuck it out for me, but good job trying out bisping. half way through the first when chael wanst completing TDs with ease I thought it might be bisping's fight. Bisping's standup is miles better. In the end those 1 or 2 dominant postions each round were the difference. im sure you heard chael say that if bisping knew how bad he hurt him in the first, he could have finished him

lets get some more $ this weekend!!

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#16
Posted: 2/1/2012 10:42:30 PM
great job ctm.


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