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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: Whats your sonnen-silva line?
sirchadwick1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bodog |
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#26
Posted: 11/7/2011 10:01:26 AM
LOL, yeah because certain fighters just can't lose right?
And Anderson has lost outside of the UFC.  He's just been on another level ever since.
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Posted: 11/7/2011 10:57:52 AM
Its weird.  Many people are acting like "well Sonnen just has to stay out of the triangle". 

Is this as easy as it sounds?  Has anyone looked over the dudes record?  He has NEVER learned how to stay out of subs as that is like the only way he loses.  He has lost many times by sub, when he knows that is his only chance of losing.

In the first fight I was surprised it took Silva so long to sub him. 

In a 2nd match, I would just expect Silva to sub him sooner. 

Also, who knows the extent of how true it is.  But I genuinely feel he wasn't 100% that night like he says.  He looked very weird.  Also...why would he wear his Gi to the cage for the first time ever if he wasn't TRYING to sub Sonnen? 

In the end, Silva has more ways to win.  He already won once.  And he may not of been 100%.  Sonnen has been in the sport for a long time.  If he hasn't figured out BJJ defense by now...why do people think he will all of a sudden?  He goes into each fight knwoing he will get the fight to the ground and needs to stay out of a sub from top position....yet he still gets sub'd.

If Anderson doesn't KO him this time...I imagine he will sub him.  Before the 5th round. 

I wouldn't feel comfortable betting a guy that only has one way of winning.  Which is lasting 5 full rounds on top of the most dangerous guy in the history of the sport.
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#28
Posted: 11/7/2011 11:01:17 AM
I also feel the Sonnen line will get worse by fight time.

It is the only fight Anderson has went into where many people really believe he will lose.  There are also a lot of casual fans who love Sonnen because he is a WWE rip off.  Many peopel also want to see Anderson lose. 

I might be way off.  But if I were a Sonnen backer I would think about betting it now. 
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#29
Posted: 11/7/2011 1:39:23 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:

I also feel the Sonnen line will get worse by fight time.

It is the only fight Anderson has went into where many people really believe he will lose.  There are also a lot of casual fans who love Sonnen because he is a WWE rip off.  Many peopel also want to see Anderson lose. 

I might be way off.  But if I were a Sonnen backer I would think about betting it now. 

like ive said before im a huge sonnen fan, the guy makes me laugh lol.  BUT im not an idiot.  To put a serious bet on sonnen, i would need pretty huge odds. I dont like silva but that guy is a beast and he will want to take Sonnens head off.  I dont think he took sonnen that seriously before and like people have said, he was partly injured. This time, Silva will be prepared.... Anything under +300 on sonnen, i wouldnt take.. unless you just want action and want to bet for fun.

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#30
Posted: 11/12/2011 5:49:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jalayn2:


Saying an undefeated fighter will lose is even funnier 

 

Saying a fighter with 4 loses is undefeated is even funnier than that.

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keven vanlith
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#31
Posted: 3/15/2012 2:59:36 PM
Well most of us had it right

Ave. out 6 rep. books and it comes out to 

SILVA -285

Down from around 300-310 a day or so ago.

I think the line will drop lower and then the last week or even day or so, lots of SILVA money will come in to push it back up to around -285 again come fight time.

Great value on a matchup that was totally dominated by the large dog.

Going into that final round the judges had it 40-36 40-35 40-34
and nothing changed the 1st 3 min. until the miracle.
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#32
Posted: 3/17/2012 11:39:12 AM
I can't argue that much about people taking Sonnen.

I'm not one who thinks the fight is going to go the exact same and all Sonnen has to do is stay out of a 5th round sub.  I think it will go quite different...something to do with Anderson jumping on top of the cage in the 1st or 2nd while Sonnen lays there.

But if you think Sonnen can drop him a few times and wrestle him for 5 rounds again then the line is real nice.

The fact that the fight is in Brazil would make me not bet against Silva even if I was huge on Sonnen winning.  I just don't see Silva losing...now ...in Brazil.  It just makes no sense. 

If Sonnen brings the game he brought vs. Bisping he will lose.  He will lose badly. 
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#33
Posted: 3/17/2012 5:05:36 PM
I think silva will be way more prepared to defend take downs. Im not making any predictions yet but I see him KOn sonnen. Any chance silva retires, win or lose?
Posted using a mobile device.
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#34
Posted: 3/17/2012 10:25:25 PM
My quote is not working

To sawmans point

Silva may be more prepared for takedowns this time, but why was he not the 1st time? Silva knew that was Sonnens game the 1st minute he learned he was fighting him, many months in advance, or if not (which is nuts because Silvas not the champ for so many years for nothing, he knows how to strat. for opp.) why not after the early part of the fight, did he not adjust?

Fact is he HAD TO BE prepared or tried to adjust, but could not stop the takedowns, unless his rib injury was really a factor, which is possible, because i noticed he was not moving as quick on his feet as normal, as Sonnen outpointed Silva in the standup as well.

In Silvas def. it takes 2 to tango and Sonnen is as good as there is in taking down and controlling.

To your point of Silva KOing Sonnen. Well Sonnen has NEVER been stopped that way in his long career. Sonnen has a major hole in his game (being submitted) but his chin is the least of his worries, however if anyone can do it, Silva is the man, with one of those front leg kicks, that instantly KOed Vitor Belfort with before he hit the ground, possible but not likely. Those things are rare esp. vs a fighter like Sonnen who likes to fight right in your grill, to cut down some of those circus moves, great fighters do with a little bit of space and little pressure applied to them and Silva remembers he was taken down after a kick att. too.

If Silva wins he may retire because he is not changing weight classes and he would have beaten the clear #1 contender 2 times not mention everyone else.

If he loses, he gets an instant rematch and what a blockbuster that would be, so not  a chance.


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#35
Posted: 3/17/2012 10:40:06 PM
I thought Sonnen looked really good in their first matchup.  When this rematch was first rumored to happen, I put his chances to win this one pretty high.  Then the fight and location was officially announced.

With the fight being in Brazil, I don't like Sonnen's chances at all. Considering how much the brazilian fighters have dominated in fights down there, it does seem there's a definite home advantage going on.

Also, like jonnyg4508 said, if Sonnen puts in a performance like he did against Bisping, he will get smoked no matter where this fight would've happened.   He will have to be at his best and hope his takedowns will be as effective as the first fight.
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#36
Posted: 3/17/2012 11:18:02 PM
To jonnys point

If there is a fighter in any of the combat sports out there, who is not afraid, in fact would love, thrives, to go into the hostile and i do mean HOSTILE backyard of his opp. its Chael Sonnen and i do not see a close 2nd guy out there to Sonnen. It may and PROBABLY WILL however give Silva a  boost however, which could make a diff. but its only a onesided adv. It may have an added pressure effect to Silva too, as many fighters have stated, fighting in their homeland, but these Brazillians are a tough lot, as we know and i do not remember any good Brazillian fighters losing at home, so this has to be an adv. to Silva ,but just barely, as the odds were pretty much guessed correctly, BEFORE we were sure, they were fighting in the home of blowdarts, lol as Chael would say.

You could very well be right on Silva stopping (subing in every likelyhood) Sonnen early in this fight, because we all know how good Silvas bjj is and of course how suspect Sonnens SUB DEF is and Sonnen has been stopped in his career EARLY in many fights, but not so much lately, however if Silva does not end it early and the fight goes somewhat the way the 1st fight went OR Sonnen knows going into the 5th round or even the 4th, that he is  ahead or way ahead again, it will be MUCH more difficult for Silva to pull a rabbit out of his hat a 2nd time late, because Sonnen is a lot of things, but 1 is not stupid or forgetfull.

The only thing i would be worried about if i was Sonnen, is if and when he gets in Silvas full G. AGAIN, no matter how busy Sonnen is and he was plenty busy on top last time, as the fight stats. showed, the Brazillian fans will be booing and trying to perswade the ref. to stand them up. I am positive though, that both Dana and Sonnens camp, will make sure whoever gets this plum ref. spot, the ref. is well aware of this coersion.

To the Bisping point.

You could be right, that was not Chael at his best, but i would not sell Bisping short and it could be that Bisping is better or matched up better vs Sonnen, than most thought, just like the way Sonnen/Silva 1 went down.
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#37
Posted: 3/29/2012 5:09:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jackjaffee:

I thought Sonnen looked really good in their first matchup.  When this rematch was first rumored to happen, I put his chances to win this one pretty high.  Then the fight and location was officially announced 

If your test levels are 4x higher than the legal limit and your opponent is hurt, I'd hope you look good 
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#38
Posted: 3/30/2012 11:21:14 AM
Sonnen does have a solid chin.  But lets not act like it matters much.

He has fought a bunch of guys who rarely KO anyone.

Bisping?
Stann spent the whole fight on his back and was easily sub'd.
Marquardt?
Okami?
Dan Miller?
Filho?
Bryan Barker?

His career is filled with guys who he could take down.  If they were good off their back they sub'd him.  If not Sonnen usually won a dec.  None of these guys have crazy power in their hands besides maybe Stann....and Stann was no match in the grappling realm of things.

If anyone can beat Silva at 185 it is Sonnen.  But I think Silva will look much better this time around....where as Sonnen fought as good as he can fight.
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#39
Posted: 3/30/2012 1:21:20 PM
The reason I see a Silva KO here, is he is not going to mess with a clinch, or inside game. The last place he wants to be is on his back again. While his take down D should be much better this time around, his ability to get up will still be stiffled by Sonnen's amazing wrestling. Further, Sonnen's stand up looked sooo bad against Bisping. Very untechnical and sloppy. And Silva will be out to prove a point... He will want to shut his mouth the same way he shut Leben's 
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