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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: Whats your sonnen-silva line?
keven vanlith
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keven vanlith
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#1
Posted: 10/11/2011 12:17:32 AM
Last time it was around -400 to 450

My guess is -285 based on their last fight and this men playing with boys type domination for sonnen vs a good opp. on sat. night.

Beating him in the same way he dominated silva, until the miracle late.
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#2
Posted: 10/11/2011 1:37:59 AM
who cares it's not even close to being official.
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#3
Posted: 10/13/2011 5:48:27 PM
A lot of people care.  Dana White wants this fight to happen asap and he knows the fans want it just as bad.  I'm actually going in on Sonnen in this one and was on Anderson the first time.  Think he'll bring in the same gritty gameplan w/out making the same mistake. 

Sonnen +160
Silva -200
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#4
Posted: 10/14/2011 1:19:37 AM
If someone started a "what if" thread everyday, this forum would be a cluster darn like most of COVERS.
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#5
Posted: 10/14/2011 1:20:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sirchadwick1:

A lot of people care.  Dana White wants this fight to happen asap and he knows the fans want it just as bad.  I'm actually going in on Sonnen in this one and was on Anderson the first time.  Think he'll bring in the same gritty gameplan w/out making the same mistake. 

Sonnen +160
Silva -200


You are nuts if you think Anderson will be -200  in my opinion
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#6
Posted: 10/14/2011 1:21:22 AM
But then again, who knows?  The fight isnt even official so they could fight a few years from now.  So it's kinda pointless to make up lines
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#7
Posted: 10/14/2011 7:06:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EricLinny:



You are nuts if you think Anderson will be -200  in my opinion


Since you seem to be the definitive answer around here, I'd like to hear your input.  And if I'm nuts saying Anderson may be around -200.... why is that?  You can't argue without making valid points.  Silva was dominated in 4 out of 5 rounds in their last fight on the ground.  He even lost a good part of the standup exchanges.  I had my $$$ on Anderson and watched with my jaw on the floor. 

Since Chael has been so sub-prone and Anderson came out the victor and is still undefeated in the UFC, I believe he will be the favorite again... but not near as heavily as last time.  This is the perfect opportunity to pounce on Chael at + money when it happens.   You're crazy to think this fight won't happen soon.  It's definitely not going to happen 3 years down the road dude.  Superbowl weekend would be huge!

And why is it that you think it's pointless to make up lines?  That is how bettors make educated bets.  You're selling yourself short if you don't create your own lines before they are released.  It's all about finding value and making the right bets. 
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boberts427
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#8
Posted: 10/14/2011 6:53:25 PM

-280 spider

 

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#9
Posted: 10/14/2011 10:18:42 PM
I think it'll hit the -300 range..have to account for the fact that Sonnen was on something and Anderson Silva had injured ribs. anyone that doesn't believe that is crazy. Looked like Silva couldn't even put his hands up to block. Anyways Sonnen would still be a good underdog pick.
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#10
Posted: 10/16/2011 4:04:30 AM
I am a firm believer that anderson's reign as champion will come to an end if he ends up fighting sonnen.  I was not fully convinced of chael until i saw what he did against brian stann.  let me tell you that he will have to do the same EXACT gameplan that he did vs brian stann when he fights anderson again, get in his face, and chael will get his bell rung charging in like that.  But chael can take some shots, he has a great chin, and i think his jiu jitsu defense or lack there-of in his past fights should be fixed for the most part.  He'll just keep moving around, grounding and pounding, getting an elbow or 2 in as best he can and stay out of triangles.  He'll be able to do this for each and every single round just like he did at ufc 117.  After thinking about it for a while, he'll be able to use his wrestling the same way.  
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#11
Posted: 10/16/2011 4:12:05 AM
I would never count Anderson Silva out, especially over someone he finished already. However I can see Chael succeeding in laying on him for 5 rounds without getting finished, but it's not a sure thing. Take into account that Anderson had a bruised rib, that affected his performance. But this fight is far from official. I'd lay money on the underdog. I have no idea what the lines would be. Pretty close to even.
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#12
Posted: 10/17/2011 3:51:38 AM

I'm not sure where Vegas will place the line but I think anything under -300 is a gift for Spider backers...

Silva knows he was out-wrestled and was very close to losing that fight. Everyone with any knowledge of MMA knows that Chael Sonnen has the "best" chance of dethroning the champion... however, it won't be enough. Silva is much like GSP in that they know how they fight, how others fight, and use their advantages to win the fights. Some fighters are intelligent, put in a good gameplan, but don't have the skills to execute. Some fighters have the skills, but lack a gameplan or the script to stick to it. Both Anderson and GSP know their weaknesses, know their opponent's strengths, and REFUSE to allow you to dictate the fight.

My guess is Anderson took Sonnen lightly in the first fight, but rest-assured he won't let it happen again. I'd have to imagine all of the smack-talk Sonnen has been doing to not only Anderson, but Wanderlei, Nogueira bros, etc... is motivation enough to shut Sonnen up.

Remember when everyone thought Belfort/Silva was going to be a good fight? Silva pulls something out of his behind that completely surprises everyone and wins the fight quickly. I think this happens again. I do not see Anderson being beaten in the UFC - this coming from someone who hates the cocky nature of the sport.

The unfortunate thing from a betting perspective is while -300 would be great odds and a definitely parlay filler, Anderson is such a big name, and Vegas will inflate those odds. I'd be looking at the Silva by KO prop instead.

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#13
Posted: 10/17/2011 2:21:24 PM
If he doesn't KO Sonnen, I don't see Sonnen lasting 5 rounds of wrestling him again.  He will get submitted sooner.  Not sure what took Silva so long the first time. 
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#14
Posted: 10/17/2011 2:43:08 PM
if Spider is any more than -250, I think I'll take Sonnen. He takes EVERYONE down with such ease, I don't know why he wouldn't do it again. He proved it again with Stann. Everyone knew what he was going to do, yet he put him on his back within seconds after the bell. I think Spider's only chance is a sub while on his back
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#15
Posted: 10/19/2011 12:53:38 PM
I think for sure Anderson will be at the very least -250 at pinnacle and will probably be -300 at most books....

 I had money (small) on chael last match and chael did an amazing job obviously but i think anderson will be better prepared this time and he will be 100%. Anderson hates chael so we know that he is motivated to beat chael.... 


Both fighters are awesome to watch, and i love Chaels trash talking.

He is one of my favorite fighters and entertaining/funny as a WWE guy but he is a top MMA fighter
at the same time and can back up his talk.


I cant wait for this fight!!!!!
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#16
Posted: 10/19/2011 4:18:42 PM
Don't forget the Trilogy theory...
Chael wins this one and it sets up a huge rubber match!
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#17
Posted: 10/23/2011 12:52:56 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sirchadwick1:

Don't forget the Trilogy theory...
Chael wins this one and it sets up a huge rubber match!

With spider, motivation has been an issue at times, you never knew if he was going to take a fight seriously or train hard because he has so much talent to rely on and he knows he can destroy people w/o having to be 100% committed.   Against Chael, we will see a 100% motivated Silva.  He will train mad hard and will bring in wrestlers all training camp long to try and prevent the take downs..

Saying all that, i hope chael wins and beats the spider but damn, it wont be easy... 

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#18
Posted: 10/23/2011 9:31:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by akatdrake:

anything under -300 is a gift for Spider backers...


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#19
Posted: 10/24/2011 6:21:14 PM

I'm sure silva will be -260 or so...i wish it was higher...i'm def taking Sonnen...i don't see any way he doens't get him down repeatedly...just don't get triangled this time, donkey, haha

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#20
Posted: 10/25/2011 8:53:24 PM
-380 sonnen.....he will convince the judges to give him a decision victory....

but no joke, sonnen may do to silva what he did to stann, and thats smother him until he gives up!!
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#21
Posted: 11/1/2011 2:43:12 PM
-240 Silva just came out on Bookmaker yesterday.

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#22
Posted: 11/1/2011 3:35:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sharpstick:

-240 Silva just came out on Bookmaker yesterday.

How ya Leanin' on this one, Sharp? It's tough to go against that wrestling. I'm sure Spider will have a better plan for his standup though

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#23
Posted: 11/1/2011 6:14:46 PM
this fight is definitely worth throwing some down on sonnen.  No one has ever been able to stop Sonnen's take-downs...and las ttime I checked Silva isn't the best wrestler.  If it were only three rounds I'd like Sonnen more, but here's hoping he doesn't get caught in a submission for 5 rounds...
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#24
Posted: 11/2/2011 5:56:43 PM
It's going to be funny when Sonnen actually catches Anderson in a sub this time around.  Wonder what the line would be on that....
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#25
Posted: 11/4/2011 4:39:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sirchadwick1:

It's going to be funny when Sonnen actually catches Anderson in a sub this time around.  Wonder what the line would be on that....

Saying an undefeated fighter will lose is even funnier 
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