NFC Championship Game:
The narrative I have observed for the most part has been how hot GB has been. Yes, A Rod has played out of his mind since the "run the table" declaration but what everyone is overlooking is the fact that Matt Ryan has basically been A Rod during the same time frame. For comparison, here are the last five games:
Rodgers:
1,617 passing yards, 66.49 completion percentage, 14:1 TD-to-INT ratio and 115.0 passer rating.
Matt Ryan:
1,469 passing yards, 73.25 completion percentage, 14:0 TD-to-INT ratio and 131.8 passer rating.
Lets consider this as well: Atlanta has been at home for the past three weeks. They closed out the regular season at home and have not had to leave the confines of the GA Dome throughout the playoffs. This is a HUGE advantage nobody is talking about.
Moving on to the match ups in this game. Do you really think that this Green Bay secondary is going to hold up? Burnett is questionable and the Packers cannot afford to lose him as they are already the second worst passing D in the league. Matt Ryan' O Line is the only unit in the NFL which has started all 16 games with the same lineman combination and have very quietly ascended into one of the best lines in the league. Matt Ryan will have time to pass and I expect him to torch the GB secondary.
Green Bay will put up points, but this Falcons D has improved holding opponents to 9 pts under their season average in their last 6 games and I trust them to make enough stops at home over a decimated Packer defensive unit trotting out practice squad players in the secondary.
For those of you who eat up the narrative that Matt Ryan will choke this thing away, here are his playoff numbers in his last three playoff games dating back to their last appearance in the playoffs in 2012 (where they also made the conference game):
80/114 70.2% Completion 328 yds/game 9 Td 3 INT
Now for those who believe the NFL has a hand in these things, I have a theory on what the NFL really wants here. This league is driven by superstars. The more superstars the league has (Cam Newton last year for example), the better their product becomes. If Matt Ryan wins the Super Bowl and MVP in the same season, he enters the conversation as one of the best QBs in the league today. He becomes a marketable star for the league, and with that new stadium opening up down their in Atlanta, this is a great opportunity to enhance their brand.
Come Sunday, I expect Atlanta to put up points and GB to follow suit in what will be a shootout, but I really think a crucial stop by the Falcons D at some point in the second half will allow the Falcons to outgun the Pack and cover the spread.
ATL ML (3 U)
ATL -5 (2 u)
Over 61 (5U)
BOL to all and I look forward to hearing thoughts from both sides.