Week One in any predictive endeavor is dangerous. After all, there is only training camp observations to go off of, as well as many assumptions made about how much playing time each team will get.
A good example here is my Under 34.5 play on Pittsburgh and Detroit. Yesterday both teams played different opponents and combined for 14 points. Yet, when these two teams played each other over 50 points combined later, you have a blowout for the Over.
The goal here, I believe, is to find some sort of edge going into the real week one, so that when we are looking at making plays on September 7,11, and 12, we aren't in the dark like I personally was last week.
Some things I have seen regarding the teams that we have seen twice so far:
The Falcons Offensive Line is the real deal.
The holes being opened for Devonte Freeman were wide enough to guarantee positive yardage on every run. The Center position is so crucial to the unit, pressure up the middle is hard to avoid. With Freeman having a great year last year in spite of good push at C, I would have to believe that next year we will see a much improved consistency in positive runs, therefore an increase in consistency.
This *should* have implications in week one, where they face a Buccaneers Defense who rated highly in Rush Defense to Off Tackle runs, but were vulnerable to runs up the gut.
Couple that with the awful Pass Protection by every starter Projected along the Left Side of the Buc's O Line, and we have a recipe for a likely cover at -3 by the Falcons. Of course, there is more Football to be played, but there have been significant Offensive improvements for this Falcons team.
The Browns are being significantly Under Rated./The Eagles are not worth -6 against them.
. There are solid reasons on film currently to believe that the not only will the Eagles be anemic on Offense, but the Browns should be significantly better than originally projected.
Firstly, Robert Griffin III looks rejuvenated. He looks under control. His deep ball is looking great. His pocket presence is looking to have matured.
Secondly, and most importantly, Hugh Jackson's Offense is looking creative, uptempo, and decisive. Jackson is fully using his tools, one of which being Duke Johnson. Duke Johnson's ability to be a threat both running the ball and set wide has allowed a flexibility to the Offense that Jackson is taking advantage of.
But Johnson is not the only player that Jackson is getting the most out of. He has found a use for the physical tools of Terrell Pryor, a kid who I wrote about last year as the real deal at WIDE OUT. How can we forget Pryor's explosiveness when he singlehandedly beat the Steelers in 2013?
Well, Pryor showed something last year as well: He has great hands. We've already seen Pryor take the top off of the Defense twice this Preseason, and I expect it to continue into the regular season.
The Eagles, on the other hand, kept their starters in on Offense for a majority of the first half, and only tallied 3 points in a half against a Steelers Defense who allowed nearly 40 the week prior to the Lions.
It's not that the Eagles won't win against the Browns, but if we were speaking candidly, how could you expect this Offense (especially without their RT, Lane Johnson, Suspended 10 games for PEDs) to score enough points to win this game by 6 against a team that looks to be able to score?
Defensively, the Browns are better than advertised in the front seven, although vulnerable admittedly in the secondary. With Nate Orchard, Emmanuel Ogbah, Danny Shelton, Carl Nassib (who looks like the real deal) playing against an O Line that is depending on an already weak O Line that is now further dented with the 10 game departure of Johnson?
I am watching this line, if it stays at +6 I will be tempted by the Browns.
Seattle is looking like they may be in line for another slow start.
While I can guarantee you that Seattle will look better against Dallas than they did last night against the Vikings, we can be assured one thing from what we saw last night against Minnesota: The Offensive Line is going to be an issue against teams who can rush the passer.
Miami can rush the passer. And Miami is GETTING 10 points.
Now, I am not jumping to conclusions hastily, but what we saw last night was not encouraging for the Hawks' early season prospects Offensively.
What we saw in 14' and 15' was a Hawks Offense that doesn't have pieces along the O Line and have gotten them off to rough starts both years. Tom Cable is a great O Line Coach, and eventually he seems to figure it out, but we have seen this team get manhandled and have Wilson under duress against good D Lines.
Tonight we are going to have to watch Miami's Pass Rush against a the best O Line in the League in Dallas. If they can get the job done and rush the passer (look particularly at interior pressure, as All Pro Left Tackle Tyron Smith will be out for the game with a stinger), then Miami might be a team that we want to look toward for an early season ATS upset in Seattle. ESPECIALLY if this spread grows, as is more likely than shrinking. Right now the number is at Seahawks -10 with one book moving the juice to -115, indicating it is still growing. The next number we'd love to see is -13 obviously, but remember that -11 is a huge number if we hit it, as it gives the Dolphins a chance to kick a FG late game for a back-door push. -11.5 is the best number to look for, as it gives the opportunity for a late-game backdoor cover if the lead is sitting on 14.
Matt Stafford is looking good, and Marvin Jones is an upgrade in every way except size from Calvin Johnson.
.We should be keeping an eye on the Colts here to see how they look Defensively, because these Lions are going to surprise people with their Pass attack. If the Lions are still getting +5 Week One, I would imagine that they have a good chance to hang in there, punch for punch, with a Colts team that still has holes along the right side of their Offensive Line, especially if rookie Ryan Kelly struggles (IF).
Ziggy Ansah, Haloti Ngata, Devin Taylor, along with rookie A'Shawn Robinson look like a formidable pass rush group. If Levy is playing in week 3 of Preseason I would be ecstatic. If not, I would be a tad worried. However, I don't see the Colts running away with this game in any regard. If you want a puncher's chance in week one, Detroit +5 wouldn't be the worst idea.
Preseason Record: 2-9
Tonight's play: Dallas First Half -2