Hey guys, So I'm looking for a measurable that willview a team's rushing efficiency AND frequency so I can see which teams had great rushing games WITHOUT the skewed data that teams that are up run a lot to sit on the lead.
I'm creating a program that will develop match-up data for handicapping, any help would be greatly appreciated
Hey guys, So I'm looking for a measurable that willview a team's rushing efficiency AND frequency so I can see which teams had great rushing games WITHOUT the skewed data that teams that are up run a lot to sit on the lead.
I'm creating a program that will develop match-up data for handicapping, any help would be greatly appreciated
Hey guys, So I'm looking for a measurable that willview a team's rushing efficiency AND frequency so I can see which teams had great rushing games WITHOUT the skewed data that teams that are up run a lot to sit on the lead.
I'm creating a program that will develop match-up data for handicapping, any help would be greatly appreciated
Yards per rush attempt should pretty much tell the story of efficiency, no?
Hey guys, So I'm looking for a measurable that willview a team's rushing efficiency AND frequency so I can see which teams had great rushing games WITHOUT the skewed data that teams that are up run a lot to sit on the lead.
I'm creating a program that will develop match-up data for handicapping, any help would be greatly appreciated
Yards per rush attempt should pretty much tell the story of efficiency, no?
Yards per attempt is half the story as it doesn't accuartley representa teams prefernce or "style" to running the ball. That's good though. I'm thinking of formumatically combining Yards per Rush Attempt and Rush Attempts per game.
Yards per attempt is half the story as it doesn't accuartley representa teams prefernce or "style" to running the ball. That's good though. I'm thinking of formumatically combining Yards per Rush Attempt and Rush Attempts per game.
Yards per attempt is half the story as it doesn't accuartley representa teams prefernce or "style" to running the ball. That's good though. I'm thinking of formumatically combining Yards per Rush Attempt and Rush Attempts per game. Was wondering if there was a better way
Yeah, I understand what you're trying to get at. I'm not huge stats guy so not real familiar with all the stats resources available out there. Are there stat sites that allow you to filter rushing attempts based on quarter? 4th quarter attempts could indicate teams playing with lead? Or perhaps somehow comparing team rushing efficiency with passing efficiency to try and sort out which teams are running because they 'want to' vs running because they 'have to'. For instance a team with an inefficient passing game will likely be running the ball more out of necessity vs a team with an efficient passing game that may be running the ball more to either set up the pass or to milk the clock.
Yards per attempt is half the story as it doesn't accuartley representa teams prefernce or "style" to running the ball. That's good though. I'm thinking of formumatically combining Yards per Rush Attempt and Rush Attempts per game. Was wondering if there was a better way
Yeah, I understand what you're trying to get at. I'm not huge stats guy so not real familiar with all the stats resources available out there. Are there stat sites that allow you to filter rushing attempts based on quarter? 4th quarter attempts could indicate teams playing with lead? Or perhaps somehow comparing team rushing efficiency with passing efficiency to try and sort out which teams are running because they 'want to' vs running because they 'have to'. For instance a team with an inefficient passing game will likely be running the ball more out of necessity vs a team with an efficient passing game that may be running the ball more to either set up the pass or to milk the clock.
If you want a proper run efficiency stat, go with FO's DVOA. It describes how effective a team is. A 3yd-run on 3rd & 2 is weighed heavier than on 3rd & 4. For instance.
@Doctor: You will notice that teams who got more rushing yards are 68.3% ATS and teams who got more attempts are 75.5% ATS. It's basically due to the fact that winning teams run the ball more often to milk the clock.
If you want a proper run efficiency stat, go with FO's DVOA. It describes how effective a team is. A 3yd-run on 3rd & 2 is weighed heavier than on 3rd & 4. For instance.
@Doctor: You will notice that teams who got more rushing yards are 68.3% ATS and teams who got more attempts are 75.5% ATS. It's basically due to the fact that winning teams run the ball more often to milk the clock.
Just the man I was looking for I actually need a teams rush offense DVOA weekly and I can't find it there unfortunately
Doctor Summas correct, I can't find a correlation between wins and rushing attempts this way because these stats happen after the fact while they sit on the lead they run more.
Id actually stand to guess a team that passes more wins more, but I cap games with match up statistics
Just the man I was looking for I actually need a teams rush offense DVOA weekly and I can't find it there unfortunately
Doctor Summas correct, I can't find a correlation between wins and rushing attempts this way because these stats happen after the fact while they sit on the lead they run more.
Id actually stand to guess a team that passes more wins more, but I cap games with match up statistics
If they correlate to ATS numbers and not taking chalk then I can see where your going with this, if its favorites then it's like;y them sitting on the lead, even still teams that rush more may drag the game out enough to keep it close and stay within a number, time of possession would need to be evaluated.
If they correlate to ATS numbers and not taking chalk then I can see where your going with this, if its favorites then it's like;y them sitting on the lead, even still teams that rush more may drag the game out enough to keep it close and stay within a number, time of possession would need to be evaluated.
Just the man I was looking for I actually need a teams rush offense DVOA weekly and I can't find it there unfortunately
Doctor Summas correct, I can't find a correlation between wins and rushing attempts this way because these stats happen after the fact while they sit on the lead they run more.
Id actually stand to guess a team that passes more wins more, but I cap games with match up statistics
You have to pay for a subscription for the premium stats. It's worth it!
Regarding the highlighted text: teams with more passing attempts are 31% ATS, just due to the same fact: when they are losing, they air it out.
Just the man I was looking for I actually need a teams rush offense DVOA weekly and I can't find it there unfortunately
Doctor Summas correct, I can't find a correlation between wins and rushing attempts this way because these stats happen after the fact while they sit on the lead they run more.
Id actually stand to guess a team that passes more wins more, but I cap games with match up statistics
You have to pay for a subscription for the premium stats. It's worth it!
Regarding the highlighted text: teams with more passing attempts are 31% ATS, just due to the same fact: when they are losing, they air it out.
Guys, I never said rushing attempts correlate to wins, I said they correlate to ATS wins, which are the only ones I count. Two of my most successful systems key in to this often overlooked stat.
Don't know whether I understand you right or not. Teams who are winning SU/ATS do have more rushing attempts because they milk the clock. So where is the predictable correlation? If you reduce garbage time & big lead rushes, there won't be any correlation anymore.
I took the 2013-2015 rushing attempts and ATS percentages for each and did a correlation analysis:
The correlation between these two components is 42.2%, the variance is 17.8%. So 17.8% of the ATS wins are based on rushing attempts. That's close to nothing mathematically. If you involve the fact that these teams run more AFTER getting a solid lead, there is just no predictable correlation.
Guys, I never said rushing attempts correlate to wins, I said they correlate to ATS wins, which are the only ones I count. Two of my most successful systems key in to this often overlooked stat.
Don't know whether I understand you right or not. Teams who are winning SU/ATS do have more rushing attempts because they milk the clock. So where is the predictable correlation? If you reduce garbage time & big lead rushes, there won't be any correlation anymore.
I took the 2013-2015 rushing attempts and ATS percentages for each and did a correlation analysis:
The correlation between these two components is 42.2%, the variance is 17.8%. So 17.8% of the ATS wins are based on rushing attempts. That's close to nothing mathematically. If you involve the fact that these teams run more AFTER getting a solid lead, there is just no predictable correlation.
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