Well.....once again, the koolaid drinkers and the naive get pounded, how ironic (keep pounding). Well vegas AND denver did came through as expected. There was NEVER a doubt with the result of this game. There was NEVER a doubt that cam would lay an egg in this game and best of all, there was NEVER a doubt that the public would get blindsided. This isn't a brag party but it's a wakeup call post to all of those who turn on the tv, live and die by stats and feel that games are 100% all the time played on the field. Granted, this was a beat down from the get go, I personally felt that this game was over two weeks ago. The script was a good one this year. One of the better ones I have seen in my time. Cam, the almighty, mr dab, mr. I hand footballs to kids- the MVP, the 15 game regular season winner, the leader of the 13-5 ATS panthers against the old man, with the noodle arm. Haaaa! Well....think about it this way. How does vegas and the league make manning the underdog so that denver revenges their beatdown (denver rolled over) of seattle? Easy - only way! They get cam and his boys into the dance and make them god-like. The script had to be strong to take part of the emphasis off manning going out on top but for those who play the game from ALL angles, it was inevitable! The naive and the cowards will laugh here and once again denounce the fact that vegas always has their hand in the pot but feast on these stats. Vegas wins :first half spread, first half total, full game spread, full game ML and full game total. 5-0! The panthers who got out to fast starts and who were a shoe in to at least take the first half, stunk it up. Coincidence? Just like the new england game?! Come on!
Lets talk about the game now. Not many talked about carolinas o-tackles, not many talked about the fact that carolina has nothing other than olsen, not many talked about the experience factor. All people talked about was manning and of course, the crowned, SCAM. All of these factors trumped the redundant stats that pointed to carolinas way. Hurricane Von and Demarcus along with the interior line were relentless. Where was Olsen? See, covers SHOULD be a place where analysis trumps all yet we have too many people in there that think they can just wake up, look at the numbers and just place a bet. It doesnt work that way! How people didnt see that coming, its crazy. If you think Im trying to be the monday morning QB like so many on here, check my posts. I truly hope that people wake up after this. Guys like Beast387, mysterich, I cant even call em all out; this was too easy. Wake up!
Lastly, we saw the real cam. When faced with adversity, he showed his true colors. The league gave him everything and in return, he couldnt face the media postgame yet when he had his first downs and tds, we saw him front and center. When beat by a 39 year old noodle arm QB, he couldnt even take his helmet off? Seriously?! Hes a phony, and im glad he got humbled.
Going forward, its been a good ride. Ive learned a lot this year and I've tailed a few great cappers along the way. The game isnt as pure as it should be but its still entertaining and if I can say one thing and im sure many will agree: if something seems too good to be true, a lot of the times, it is. Sometimes, games arent all about stats and you can learn a lot about a situation from the public. Have a great year and see ya next year! Congrats denver backers.
Well.....once again, the koolaid drinkers and the naive get pounded, how ironic (keep pounding). Well vegas AND denver did came through as expected. There was NEVER a doubt with the result of this game. There was NEVER a doubt that cam would lay an egg in this game and best of all, there was NEVER a doubt that the public would get blindsided. This isn't a brag party but it's a wakeup call post to all of those who turn on the tv, live and die by stats and feel that games are 100% all the time played on the field. Granted, this was a beat down from the get go, I personally felt that this game was over two weeks ago. The script was a good one this year. One of the better ones I have seen in my time. Cam, the almighty, mr dab, mr. I hand footballs to kids- the MVP, the 15 game regular season winner, the leader of the 13-5 ATS panthers against the old man, with the noodle arm. Haaaa! Well....think about it this way. How does vegas and the league make manning the underdog so that denver revenges their beatdown (denver rolled over) of seattle? Easy - only way! They get cam and his boys into the dance and make them god-like. The script had to be strong to take part of the emphasis off manning going out on top but for those who play the game from ALL angles, it was inevitable! The naive and the cowards will laugh here and once again denounce the fact that vegas always has their hand in the pot but feast on these stats. Vegas wins :first half spread, first half total, full game spread, full game ML and full game total. 5-0! The panthers who got out to fast starts and who were a shoe in to at least take the first half, stunk it up. Coincidence? Just like the new england game?! Come on!
Lets talk about the game now. Not many talked about carolinas o-tackles, not many talked about the fact that carolina has nothing other than olsen, not many talked about the experience factor. All people talked about was manning and of course, the crowned, SCAM. All of these factors trumped the redundant stats that pointed to carolinas way. Hurricane Von and Demarcus along with the interior line were relentless. Where was Olsen? See, covers SHOULD be a place where analysis trumps all yet we have too many people in there that think they can just wake up, look at the numbers and just place a bet. It doesnt work that way! How people didnt see that coming, its crazy. If you think Im trying to be the monday morning QB like so many on here, check my posts. I truly hope that people wake up after this. Guys like Beast387, mysterich, I cant even call em all out; this was too easy. Wake up!
Lastly, we saw the real cam. When faced with adversity, he showed his true colors. The league gave him everything and in return, he couldnt face the media postgame yet when he had his first downs and tds, we saw him front and center. When beat by a 39 year old noodle arm QB, he couldnt even take his helmet off? Seriously?! Hes a phony, and im glad he got humbled.
Going forward, its been a good ride. Ive learned a lot this year and I've tailed a few great cappers along the way. The game isnt as pure as it should be but its still entertaining and if I can say one thing and im sure many will agree: if something seems too good to be true, a lot of the times, it is. Sometimes, games arent all about stats and you can learn a lot about a situation from the public. Have a great year and see ya next year! Congrats denver backers.
Well.....once again, the koolaid drinkers and the naive get pounded, how ironic (keep pounding). Well vegas AND denver did came through as expected. There was NEVER a doubt with the result of this game. There was NEVER a doubt that cam would lay an egg in this game and best of all, there was NEVER a doubt that the public would get blindsided. This isn't a brag party but it's a wakeup call post to all of those who turn on the tv, live and die by stats and feel that games are 100% all the time played on the field. Granted, this was a beat down from the get go, I personally felt that this game was over two weeks ago. The script was a good one this year. One of the better ones I have seen in my time. Cam, the almighty, mr dab, mr. I hand footballs to kids- the MVP, the 15 game regular season winner, the leader of the 13-5 ATS panthers against the old man, with the noodle arm. Haaaa! Well....think about it this way. How does vegas and the league make manning the underdog so that denver revenges their beatdown (denver rolled over) of seattle? Easy - only way! They get cam and his boys into the dance and make them god-like. The script had to be strong to take part of the emphasis off manning going out on top but for those who play the game from ALL angles, it was inevitable! The naive and the cowards will laugh here and once again denounce the fact that vegas always has their hand in the pot but feast on these stats. Vegas wins :first half spread, first half total, full game spread, full game ML and full game total. 5-0! The panthers who got out to fast starts and who were a shoe in to at least take the first half, stunk it up. Coincidence? Just like the new england game?! Come on!
Lets talk about the game now. Not many talked about carolinas o-tackles, not many talked about the fact that carolina has nothing other than olsen, not many talked about the experience factor. All people talked about was manning and of course, the crowned, SCAM. All of these factors trumped the redundant stats that pointed to carolinas way. Hurricane Von and Demarcus along with the interior line were relentless. Where was Olsen? See, covers SHOULD be a place where analysis trumps all yet we have too many people in there that think they can just wake up, look at the numbers and just place a bet. It doesnt work that way! How people didnt see that coming, its crazy. If you think Im trying to be the monday morning QB like so many on here, check my posts. I truly hope that people wake up after this. Guys like Beast387, mysterich, I cant even call em all out; this was too easy. Wake up!
Lastly, we saw the real cam. When faced with adversity, he showed his true colors. The league gave him everything and in return, he couldnt face the media postgame yet when he had his first downs and tds, we saw him front and center. When beat by a 39 year old noodle arm QB, he couldnt even take his helmet off? Seriously?! Hes a phony, and im glad he got humbled.
Going forward, its been a good ride. Ive learned a lot this year and I've tailed a few great cappers along the way. The game isnt as pure as it should be but its still entertaining and if I can say one thing and im sure many will agree: if something seems too good to be true, a lot of the times, it is. Sometimes, games arent all about stats and you can learn a lot about a situation from the public. Have a great year and see ya next year! Congrats denver backers.
Well.....once again, the koolaid drinkers and the naive get pounded, how ironic (keep pounding). Well vegas AND denver did came through as expected. There was NEVER a doubt with the result of this game. There was NEVER a doubt that cam would lay an egg in this game and best of all, there was NEVER a doubt that the public would get blindsided. This isn't a brag party but it's a wakeup call post to all of those who turn on the tv, live and die by stats and feel that games are 100% all the time played on the field. Granted, this was a beat down from the get go, I personally felt that this game was over two weeks ago. The script was a good one this year. One of the better ones I have seen in my time. Cam, the almighty, mr dab, mr. I hand footballs to kids- the MVP, the 15 game regular season winner, the leader of the 13-5 ATS panthers against the old man, with the noodle arm. Haaaa! Well....think about it this way. How does vegas and the league make manning the underdog so that denver revenges their beatdown (denver rolled over) of seattle? Easy - only way! They get cam and his boys into the dance and make them god-like. The script had to be strong to take part of the emphasis off manning going out on top but for those who play the game from ALL angles, it was inevitable! The naive and the cowards will laugh here and once again denounce the fact that vegas always has their hand in the pot but feast on these stats. Vegas wins :first half spread, first half total, full game spread, full game ML and full game total. 5-0! The panthers who got out to fast starts and who were a shoe in to at least take the first half, stunk it up. Coincidence? Just like the new england game?! Come on!
Lets talk about the game now. Not many talked about carolinas o-tackles, not many talked about the fact that carolina has nothing other than olsen, not many talked about the experience factor. All people talked about was manning and of course, the crowned, SCAM. All of these factors trumped the redundant stats that pointed to carolinas way. Hurricane Von and Demarcus along with the interior line were relentless. Where was Olsen? See, covers SHOULD be a place where analysis trumps all yet we have too many people in there that think they can just wake up, look at the numbers and just place a bet. It doesnt work that way! How people didnt see that coming, its crazy. If you think Im trying to be the monday morning QB like so many on here, check my posts. I truly hope that people wake up after this. Guys like Beast387, mysterich, I cant even call em all out; this was too easy. Wake up!
Lastly, we saw the real cam. When faced with adversity, he showed his true colors. The league gave him everything and in return, he couldnt face the media postgame yet when he had his first downs and tds, we saw him front and center. When beat by a 39 year old noodle arm QB, he couldnt even take his helmet off? Seriously?! Hes a phony, and im glad he got humbled.
Going forward, its been a good ride. Ive learned a lot this year and I've tailed a few great cappers along the way. The game isnt as pure as it should be but its still entertaining and if I can say one thing and im sure many will agree: if something seems too good to be true, a lot of the times, it is. Sometimes, games arent all about stats and you can learn a lot about a situation from the public. Have a great year and see ya next year! Congrats denver backers.
I like that rundown. You don't make a case for a complete fix, but do point out how the media steers the public in the wrong direction
I love that we had 2 weeks to cap this game, the little things that don't get mentioned in media are usually a lot more important than most think.
The man who posted above(suuma) was all over the carolina offensive tackles vs ware and miller. Von miller getting the mvp
In my write up I absolutely loved Denver's corners vs a subpar WR unit and how they are perfectly equipped to run cover 1 man. Greg olsen got bumped by LB's and the safety's were on him all game.
I thought Peyton would do well vs the blitz. River boat Ron called blitzes on the first 3 plays of the game...huge mistake imo.
I like that rundown. You don't make a case for a complete fix, but do point out how the media steers the public in the wrong direction
I love that we had 2 weeks to cap this game, the little things that don't get mentioned in media are usually a lot more important than most think.
The man who posted above(suuma) was all over the carolina offensive tackles vs ware and miller. Von miller getting the mvp
In my write up I absolutely loved Denver's corners vs a subpar WR unit and how they are perfectly equipped to run cover 1 man. Greg olsen got bumped by LB's and the safety's were on him all game.
I thought Peyton would do well vs the blitz. River boat Ron called blitzes on the first 3 plays of the game...huge mistake imo.
Achilles made a great call, even called for some fluky type things to happen and they did, like the SB record punt return when 2 Panthers had him and mis-judged the play and let him go.
I can understand how you could put a spin on it with Vegas played a hand and such but I really don't think that is the case.
This is nothing more then your typical regression play which on the surface could be preceived as a fix is in.
And to a larger extent is why Vegas wins and the public loses because the public has no clue about regression, they just follow the sport mostly backing the hot team.
Regression usually follows extreme performance and what could be more extreme then the Panthers winning both 1st halves big, a record margin of victory, that is stuff regression is made of.
IT'S ONLY A MATTER OF MEASURING REGRESSION PROPERLY TO KNOW WHEN TO USE IT.
I may not always be perfect with measuring it, by I do know regression when I see it.
I know regression is alive and well in sports because I've used the same method in many era's and done well with it , I don't see how Vegas or the NFL could set-up games in all era's to match my regression formula.
To me that would be 100% impossible.
I've also used regression to predict many other things that can not be set-up, like I did it this winter in the northeast calling for less snow and warmer temps and so far I'm right on the money.
The past 2 winters were record setting snow-fall and cold temps, regression follows extreme performances.
The ave joe's who follow the weather (similar to ave joe's who follow sports ) they thought I was nuts making that prediction and all just predicted the same thing to happen as happen last year and they year before.
That is what ave joe's do in sports as well, predicting the same thing happened last game and the game before.
It is all the exact same principle.
Every ave that has ever been recorded in world history includes performances above the ave and below the ave.
For every performance above ave must have a corresponding performance below ave to reach the ave, impossible to not be true.
Achilles made a great call, even called for some fluky type things to happen and they did, like the SB record punt return when 2 Panthers had him and mis-judged the play and let him go.
I can understand how you could put a spin on it with Vegas played a hand and such but I really don't think that is the case.
This is nothing more then your typical regression play which on the surface could be preceived as a fix is in.
And to a larger extent is why Vegas wins and the public loses because the public has no clue about regression, they just follow the sport mostly backing the hot team.
Regression usually follows extreme performance and what could be more extreme then the Panthers winning both 1st halves big, a record margin of victory, that is stuff regression is made of.
IT'S ONLY A MATTER OF MEASURING REGRESSION PROPERLY TO KNOW WHEN TO USE IT.
I may not always be perfect with measuring it, by I do know regression when I see it.
I know regression is alive and well in sports because I've used the same method in many era's and done well with it , I don't see how Vegas or the NFL could set-up games in all era's to match my regression formula.
To me that would be 100% impossible.
I've also used regression to predict many other things that can not be set-up, like I did it this winter in the northeast calling for less snow and warmer temps and so far I'm right on the money.
The past 2 winters were record setting snow-fall and cold temps, regression follows extreme performances.
The ave joe's who follow the weather (similar to ave joe's who follow sports ) they thought I was nuts making that prediction and all just predicted the same thing to happen as happen last year and they year before.
That is what ave joe's do in sports as well, predicting the same thing happened last game and the game before.
It is all the exact same principle.
Every ave that has ever been recorded in world history includes performances above the ave and below the ave.
For every performance above ave must have a corresponding performance below ave to reach the ave, impossible to not be true.
Achilles made a great call, even called for some fluky type things to happen and they did, like the SB record punt return when 2 Panthers had him and mis-judged the play and let him go.
I can understand how you could put a spin on it with Vegas played a hand and such but I really don't think that is the case.
This is nothing more then your typical regression play which on the surface could be preceived as a fix is in.
And to a larger extent is why Vegas wins and the public loses because the public has no clue about regression, they just follow the sport mostly backing the hot team.
Regression usually follows extreme performance and what could be more extreme then the Panthers winning both 1st halves big, a record margin of victory, that is stuff regression is made of.
IT'S ONLY A MATTER OF MEASURING REGRESSION PROPERLY TO KNOW WHEN TO USE IT.
I may not always be perfect with measuring it, by I do know regression when I see it.
I know regression is alive and well in sports because I've used the same method in many era's and done well with it , I don't see how Vegas or the NFL could set-up games in all era's to match my regression formula.
To me that would be 100% impossible.
I've also used regression to predict many other things that can not be set-up, like I did it this winter in the northeast calling for less snow and warmer temps and so far I'm right on the money.
The past 2 winters were record setting snow-fall and cold temps, regression follows extreme performances.
The ave joe's who follow the weather (similar to ave joe's who follow sports ) they thought I was nuts making that prediction and all just predicted the same thing to happen as happen last year and they year before.
That is what ave joe's do in sports as well, predicting the same thing happened last game and the game before.
It is all the exact same principle.
Every ave that has ever been recorded in world history includes performances above the ave and below the ave.
For every performance above ave must have a corresponding performance below ave to reach the ave, impossible to not be true.
That's the essence of regression.
Claw your regression description is spot on. I used it a lot in 2014, but was blinded a lot this year. I was more of a technical handicapper but this year I took X's and O's too often over the spot. There are a lot of examples.
Example: If team A gets terribly beaten on the pass defensively in one week, the regression hits next week as they try hard and focus on their last shown weaknesses. If their next opponent is a bad passing team, you have a double regression spot and an inflated line.
Achilles made a great call, even called for some fluky type things to happen and they did, like the SB record punt return when 2 Panthers had him and mis-judged the play and let him go.
I can understand how you could put a spin on it with Vegas played a hand and such but I really don't think that is the case.
This is nothing more then your typical regression play which on the surface could be preceived as a fix is in.
And to a larger extent is why Vegas wins and the public loses because the public has no clue about regression, they just follow the sport mostly backing the hot team.
Regression usually follows extreme performance and what could be more extreme then the Panthers winning both 1st halves big, a record margin of victory, that is stuff regression is made of.
IT'S ONLY A MATTER OF MEASURING REGRESSION PROPERLY TO KNOW WHEN TO USE IT.
I may not always be perfect with measuring it, by I do know regression when I see it.
I know regression is alive and well in sports because I've used the same method in many era's and done well with it , I don't see how Vegas or the NFL could set-up games in all era's to match my regression formula.
To me that would be 100% impossible.
I've also used regression to predict many other things that can not be set-up, like I did it this winter in the northeast calling for less snow and warmer temps and so far I'm right on the money.
The past 2 winters were record setting snow-fall and cold temps, regression follows extreme performances.
The ave joe's who follow the weather (similar to ave joe's who follow sports ) they thought I was nuts making that prediction and all just predicted the same thing to happen as happen last year and they year before.
That is what ave joe's do in sports as well, predicting the same thing happened last game and the game before.
It is all the exact same principle.
Every ave that has ever been recorded in world history includes performances above the ave and below the ave.
For every performance above ave must have a corresponding performance below ave to reach the ave, impossible to not be true.
That's the essence of regression.
Claw your regression description is spot on. I used it a lot in 2014, but was blinded a lot this year. I was more of a technical handicapper but this year I took X's and O's too often over the spot. There are a lot of examples.
Example: If team A gets terribly beaten on the pass defensively in one week, the regression hits next week as they try hard and focus on their last shown weaknesses. If their next opponent is a bad passing team, you have a double regression spot and an inflated line.
Im very glad three of the guys who I have learned a lot from and tail on a regular basis, chimed in. Suuma, under and claw. No disrespect to any others in here but suuma, I follow you on twitter, claw, you are just one of a kind with your analysis and under, I follow you in the NBA as well. You guys all have different angles which is great when I cap games. There are a few others on here and one particular who isnt on here anymore that have helped fill the pockets this year. Nevertheless, gents, its been a great year and I appreciate all that you do. Im glad I am getting the opportunity to thank you in here. I look forward to the future and hoping that if you are on twitter, send me request. Suuma, i follow you but the other guys, lets beat those books! Take care, talk soon!
Im very glad three of the guys who I have learned a lot from and tail on a regular basis, chimed in. Suuma, under and claw. No disrespect to any others in here but suuma, I follow you on twitter, claw, you are just one of a kind with your analysis and under, I follow you in the NBA as well. You guys all have different angles which is great when I cap games. There are a few others on here and one particular who isnt on here anymore that have helped fill the pockets this year. Nevertheless, gents, its been a great year and I appreciate all that you do. Im glad I am getting the opportunity to thank you in here. I look forward to the future and hoping that if you are on twitter, send me request. Suuma, i follow you but the other guys, lets beat those books! Take care, talk soon!
Claw your regression description is spot on. I used it a lot in 2014, but was blinded a lot this year. I was more of a technical handicapper but this year I took X's and O's too often over the spot. There are a lot of examples.
Example: If team A gets terribly beaten on the pass defensively in one week, the regression hits next week as they try hard and focus on their last shown weaknesses. If their next opponent is a bad passing team, you have a double regression spot and an inflated line.
Exactly, teams know what they do terribly wrong one week, sometimes they don't always work on things untill it gets proven over a few weeks they have a weakness then they have no choice but to work extra hard to correct it.
TJ Ward from Denver's defense today on First Take just said, that the Panthers and the media acting like the Panthers already won the game before it was played fueled their desire to win even more.
He also said when the media pats Denver on the back they don't always play as hard.
Bill Parcels talked about this as did Jimmy Johnson.
It's very real, and those who think it's the SB so both teams will play equally hard is not true. Getting patted on the back effects a players mentality if the players buy into it, it human nature.
This also explains to some degree why Vegas wins games like this when the public is heavy on one team.
Claw your regression description is spot on. I used it a lot in 2014, but was blinded a lot this year. I was more of a technical handicapper but this year I took X's and O's too often over the spot. There are a lot of examples.
Example: If team A gets terribly beaten on the pass defensively in one week, the regression hits next week as they try hard and focus on their last shown weaknesses. If their next opponent is a bad passing team, you have a double regression spot and an inflated line.
Exactly, teams know what they do terribly wrong one week, sometimes they don't always work on things untill it gets proven over a few weeks they have a weakness then they have no choice but to work extra hard to correct it.
TJ Ward from Denver's defense today on First Take just said, that the Panthers and the media acting like the Panthers already won the game before it was played fueled their desire to win even more.
He also said when the media pats Denver on the back they don't always play as hard.
Bill Parcels talked about this as did Jimmy Johnson.
It's very real, and those who think it's the SB so both teams will play equally hard is not true. Getting patted on the back effects a players mentality if the players buy into it, it human nature.
This also explains to some degree why Vegas wins games like this when the public is heavy on one team.
Well said was flying around the forum with you on team Denver for the two weeks before the game and what became apparent to me is the role of cognitive dissonance in the sports betting world. The truth is no matter how many times you say it, or how many times it occurs in plain sight, the programmed mind is hard-wired to reject contradicting information, so the pattern will persist.
Ultimately whether you believe the game is fixed or not, the presence of manipulation is undeniably apparent. The line is manipulative, the media is manipulative, and our programmed herd mentality is manipulative, and unless you can see the manipulation for what it is, you are at the whim of the manipulation.
It is rare that we get a case where the distance between perception and reality is as large as it was in this game, and I'm glad that I wasn't caught sleeping at the wheel this time.
Congrats on the win, to those of you above as well. Looking forward to next season
Well said was flying around the forum with you on team Denver for the two weeks before the game and what became apparent to me is the role of cognitive dissonance in the sports betting world. The truth is no matter how many times you say it, or how many times it occurs in plain sight, the programmed mind is hard-wired to reject contradicting information, so the pattern will persist.
Ultimately whether you believe the game is fixed or not, the presence of manipulation is undeniably apparent. The line is manipulative, the media is manipulative, and our programmed herd mentality is manipulative, and unless you can see the manipulation for what it is, you are at the whim of the manipulation.
It is rare that we get a case where the distance between perception and reality is as large as it was in this game, and I'm glad that I wasn't caught sleeping at the wheel this time.
Congrats on the win, to those of you above as well. Looking forward to next season
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