CHECK YOUR EMOTIONS AT THE DOOR
One thing that shocked me going into the playoffs was how little
respect Carolina was getting despite being nearly undefeated in the regular
season (15-1). It’s a feat only archived six times in NFL history, yet they
weren’t even the favorite to win the NFC (< Arz), let alone the Super Bowl
(< Arz and NE). How can this 1st round bye, home field advantage, and
relatively healthy team NOT be runaway favorite to win the Super Bowl?
Fast forward three weeks and Carolina is now in the Super Bowl. Not only does 70%
of the public think Carolina will win, but a high majority think they’ll cover
a large 1 TD spread (-6). What happened? How could the odds makers-- and more
importantly the public-- jump on the Carolina bandwagon so quickly? Sure,
Carolina nearly blew out Seattle and Arizona, (both very tough opponents), but
it’s still surprising two games could move the odds so much.
Times like these remind me people are emotional, use short term
memory, and often believe a team is only as good as their previous game. Or
previous half of the game. Case in point, Seattle vs. Carolina. You may recall
the 1H of that game was one sided. Carolina built a 28 point lead by half time
and the game was nearly over after S.Hauschka missed a last-second FG going
into halftime. Only 30 minutes in, and books put out odds on the impending NFC
Championship game (Arz @ Car). Thanks in part to a dominate 1H, Carolina opened
as a 5pt favorite. The line stayed strong until the start of the 2H and after
Seattle mounted an impressive comeback, shutting Carolina out and putting up
24pts despite failing to pull it off. Carolina still won the game, but looked
horrible in the 2H, and that 5pt spread plunged to 3.5 by the end of the game.
You may not think 1.5 pts is not a lot, but in the betting world, it’s
significant. A week later, and before the Arz @ Car game, books published
another early line for Super Bowl. That line was set at Den vs Car (-3). 1 game
later and it's now Car (-6).
RIDDLE ME THIS
That being said, I wanted to dig deeper. What are the driving forces on this
year’s SB line? Cue my ah-ha moment. The answer to the riddle isn’t Carolina.
The answer is Denver. Carolina may not be getting their due respect, but Denver
isn’t getting any respect at all. Moreover, the current line has more to do
with how people view Denver as a SB contender versus Carolina as a SB
contender. Why? Let’s review.
Carolina is under appreciated. Look at the odds for next year’s
super bowl if you don’t believe me. Carolina isn't even the favorite to win the
NFC (Arizona), and they have the same odds as four other teams to win the Super
Bowl (+1000). They have a good chance of being the only the 3rd team in history
to go 18-1 and win the Super Bowl, yet books are giving them the same odds for
next year as the Pittsburg Steelers? Come ‘on.
Denver is equally (if not more) underrated. They had the best
record in the AFC, beat the defending champions twice this year, and have had
the league’s best defense all year. The first two may not mean much, but the
latter should. Everyone knows defense wins championships, but few believe it.
I’m also against the grain when it comes to quarterbacks, which is another
reason why Denver is underrated.
As an ex-quarterback myself, I know you don’t need to be sexy to
win; but you do need to manage the game. How? Audibles, managing the clock, not
turning the ball over, identifying coverage's, and making smart in-game
decisions including timeouts. These small components make a huge difference,
and are often just as important-- if not more so-- than being accurate with the
ball or throwing it 50 yards on a string.
I’m not trying to convince you 39-year-old Peyton Manning is
better than 26-year-old Cam Newton. I am saying the two are perceived very
differently. 1) Manning can’t do a single push up. 2) Cam Newton truly is
Superman. Cam Newton deserves the MVP, but it has more to do with his
athleticism, versus how he manages the game. It’ll be very interesting to see
how he fares under the big lights of the Super Bowl, and versus the league’s
best defense. I know he’s won a National Championship and an NFC championship,
but the Super Bowl is a completely different beast.
I also suspect the two week break and media spotlight on
Newton’s on-field antics are negatives, and may detract from his game. But I
digress. The public associates SB winners with great quarterbacks, and thus
looks at the physical attributes of Manning and Newton, concluding Carolina
(Superman Newton) is far superior then Denver (Washed Up Manning). This is huge
mistake.
For
one, the comparison is grossly exaggerated with Manning much closer to Newton
as far as skill set. And two, handicapping a game by focusing solely on the QB
matchup is absurd. In the grand scheme of things, QB’s are just a small piece
of the puzzle. Coaching, defense, special teams, and weather can often outcome
the game over much more than any single QB vs. QB matchup.