Dallas Cowboys ML BIG PLAY
DAL offense vs. CAR defense
I will take the last season into consideration because this DAL offense is only changed on one position (LG La’el Collins). The CAR defense was without a doubt outstanding. Their pass rush is very good, their LB corps is one of the best, Josh Norman has been playing on an All Pro level and Charles Tillman (who is out today) gave this secondary the touch of mature and experience. But there is one thing about this DAL offense when they are in full strength: they are going to score 24+ on any defense in the league. Remember last season when they visited the legion of boom? They annihilated them AT Seattle. Their OL only struggles against disruptive first-step pass rush like Suh has, for example they had their issues against DET in the playoffs and vs. MIA last week. They still dropped 24 on each. Allen, Johnson, Short, Lotelelei ect. Are one heck of a front seven who can generate a pass rush by sending four but this won’t be enough for the DAL OL, you need to blitz them to create mismatches. Dez Bryant is an All-Pro receiver, it’s very difficult to cover him, so Norman will be on him. I don’t think any CB in the league can shut down Dez Bryant for 60 minutes. Even if Norman will shut him down, you have guys like Terrance Williams (underrated, especially his sideline routes) and Cole Beasley who will be free because Romo has some time. Beasley in the slot will be a tough task because Tillman is out. Jason Witten is always good for a few catches and I give him the edge against rookie Shaq Thompson. The Panthers need to stop the running game completely to be successful, but I don’t think they will be able to do just because how efficient the Cowboys are in run-blocking. Along with Turbin and DMC they are starting to gel and remember, the Cowboys don’t need to run 6 YPC. 3.5 to 4.5 YPC are enough for this offense to keep drives alive and get easier third down situations. What I am saying is: the Panthers have a good D but the Cowboys are going to score just because of their quality. Cowboys have one thing Carolina’s recent opponents didn’t have: the best OL in the league. Mariota, Rodgers, Cousins had no time to find open men or the running game to keep drives alive. Different story today.
Panthers offense vs. Cowboys defense
Here is where it gets interesting and which the key to an easy Cowboys cover IMO is. The Cowboys have the most underrated defense in the league. I don’t have the exact number but I would guess that since Hardy and McClain came back, their defense is giving up an average of around 13/14/15 PPG which should be top-5 easily. Hardy, Gregory, Mincey, Crawford, Hayden, Lee, Hitchens, McClain – this is a very good front seven. Their secondary has been playing much improved this year and they are benefiting from their front seven. I’ve seen that a lot of Panthers’ offensive linemen get Pro Bowl votes, but they will have their hands full with the Dallas’ pass rush, especially with Hardy who will be emotionally drained just like against the Patriots. Cam Newton was sacked FIVE times against a good defense at Tennessee. That OL also struggled during three quarters against Seattle’s four-men rush. Cam Newton had a lot of designed runs but this offense will be limited this time. Sean Lee will have an eye on Newton all game long and Olsen will get very well covered which gives Newton less time to hit receivers or try to let Olsen beat his man. His completion percentage of 56% over the season should get a downgrade today as I see him around 50% not better. Also the Panthers benefited heavily from good field position, this is another thing I can’t see today. They will have a tough time running and tough time throwing when they have a big field in front of them.