No plays yet but leaning more favourites than usual.
Carolina
Seattle
Other likes are
Cincinnati
Denver
Green Bay
I'll try to remember to post tomorrow!
Good Luck guys.
Quote: Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess] Actually, with all the dogs hitting last week, this might be a good week to take all favorites. My picks are Carolina, Denver, Minnesota, Cincinnati and San Diego. [/Quote]
No plays yet but leaning more favourites than usual.
Carolina
Seattle
Other likes are
Cincinnati
Denver
Green Bay
I'll try to remember to post tomorrow!
Good Luck guys.
Quote: Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess] Actually, with all the dogs hitting last week, this might be a good week to take all favorites. My picks are Carolina, Denver, Minnesota, Cincinnati and San Diego. [/Quote]
Ok, my system is fully functional, and I finally trusted it and will trust it these final 8 weeks with NO EXCEPTION. I was 2-3 last week (system was 5-0) and I got the win last night with Jax -3, so excited to be 1-0 heading into weekend, first time I've done that in a while.
Here are my other 4 picks this week, purely from the system. I am done arguing with it :-) ... it's at 67% this year and 55% over 10 years. This is truly remarkable. Statistically, it means I will be in the top 50 in the contest about 1 time every 3 or 4 years. Those are facts. Problem is I might hit next year or in 7 years next. That's the nature of the bell cure, but I will hit eventually! No doubt at all.
Here goes therest of this,week's picks courtesy of serious data analysis.
Miami PK
Baltimore -2
San Francisco +12.5
Kansas City -3
Good luck, and ride this machine to victory if you dare! I am not messing around. This is the real deal folks.
Ok, my system is fully functional, and I finally trusted it and will trust it these final 8 weeks with NO EXCEPTION. I was 2-3 last week (system was 5-0) and I got the win last night with Jax -3, so excited to be 1-0 heading into weekend, first time I've done that in a while.
Here are my other 4 picks this week, purely from the system. I am done arguing with it :-) ... it's at 67% this year and 55% over 10 years. This is truly remarkable. Statistically, it means I will be in the top 50 in the contest about 1 time every 3 or 4 years. Those are facts. Problem is I might hit next year or in 7 years next. That's the nature of the bell cure, but I will hit eventually! No doubt at all.
Here goes therest of this,week's picks courtesy of serious data analysis.
Miami PK
Baltimore -2
San Francisco +12.5
Kansas City -3
Good luck, and ride this machine to victory if you dare! I am not messing around. This is the real deal folks.
Ok, my system is fully functional, and I finally trusted it and will trust it these final 8 weeks with NO EXCEPTION. I was 2-3 last week (system was 5-0) and I got the win last night with Jax -3, so excited to be 1-0 heading into weekend, first time I've done that in a while.
Here are my other 4 picks this week, purely from the system. I am done arguing with it :-) ... it's at 67% this year and 55% over 10 years. This is truly remarkable. Statistically, it means I will be in the top 50 in the contest about 1 time every 3 or 4 years. Those are facts. Problem is I might hit next year or in 7 years next. That's the nature of the bell cure, but I will hit eventually! No doubt at all.
Here goes therest of this,week's picks courtesy of serious data analysis.
Miami PK
Baltimore -2
San Francisco +12.5
Kansas City -3
Good luck, and ride this machine to victory if you dare! I am not messing around. This is the real deal folks.
Nice! Just watch out for the big QB changes with Dallas and San Francisco. The data can't see that except 1 game with Gabbert for San Fran. It will likely actually be an improvement for them though or at least the same. I'd be more worried about the return of Romo which could potentially make a drastic difference for the Cowboys. All depends on how rusty he is.
Ok, my system is fully functional, and I finally trusted it and will trust it these final 8 weeks with NO EXCEPTION. I was 2-3 last week (system was 5-0) and I got the win last night with Jax -3, so excited to be 1-0 heading into weekend, first time I've done that in a while.
Here are my other 4 picks this week, purely from the system. I am done arguing with it :-) ... it's at 67% this year and 55% over 10 years. This is truly remarkable. Statistically, it means I will be in the top 50 in the contest about 1 time every 3 or 4 years. Those are facts. Problem is I might hit next year or in 7 years next. That's the nature of the bell cure, but I will hit eventually! No doubt at all.
Here goes therest of this,week's picks courtesy of serious data analysis.
Miami PK
Baltimore -2
San Francisco +12.5
Kansas City -3
Good luck, and ride this machine to victory if you dare! I am not messing around. This is the real deal folks.
Nice! Just watch out for the big QB changes with Dallas and San Francisco. The data can't see that except 1 game with Gabbert for San Fran. It will likely actually be an improvement for them though or at least the same. I'd be more worried about the return of Romo which could potentially make a drastic difference for the Cowboys. All depends on how rusty he is.
Nice! Just watch out for the big QB changes with Dallas and San Francisco. The data can't see that except 1 game with Gabbert for San Fran. It will likely actually be an improvement for them though or at least the same. I'd be more worried about the return of Romo which could potentially make a drastic difference for the Cowboys. All depends on how rusty he is.
Oh and also Rams are benching Foles so a new unknown situation at QB there too... lol
Nice! Just watch out for the big QB changes with Dallas and San Francisco. The data can't see that except 1 game with Gabbert for San Fran. It will likely actually be an improvement for them though or at least the same. I'd be more worried about the return of Romo which could potentially make a drastic difference for the Cowboys. All depends on how rusty he is.
Oh and also Rams are benching Foles so a new unknown situation at QB there too... lol
Totally agree about qb changes. Problem is, I usually shoot myself in the foot when I try to out-think what the data produces. I haven't found a way yet to adjust for that and increase success rate, and the contest line usually takes care of that anyway, unless in the rare case where a qb gets yanked or injured after the contest line is posted, but that rarely happens.
I've learned that if I think less I win more, cause I let system think for me.
Totally agree about qb changes. Problem is, I usually shoot myself in the foot when I try to out-think what the data produces. I haven't found a way yet to adjust for that and increase success rate, and the contest line usually takes care of that anyway, unless in the rare case where a qb gets yanked or injured after the contest line is posted, but that rarely happens.
I've learned that if I think less I win more, cause I let system think for me.
How the F$CK did the Titans blow that game dear god that was awful. They covered for like 97% of that football game. I have had ZERO breaks during this contest.
I made a rule never to bet Thursday games in this contest from last year. I broke it once this year in what I thought was a prime situation (Hou vs Ind) and ended up having a losing week overall.
Betting the Thursday game is such a disadvantage in most cases b/c you have to make ALL your other picks before Friday which really sucks b/c the Friday afternoon/night practice reports can be critical for the 4 other picks.
Not only that but the games themselves are extremely high variance plays due to the short weeks/injuries etc.
Just my 2 cents. Better to avoid that game and pick the Sunday/Monday game with all the information available.
How the F$CK did the Titans blow that game dear god that was awful. They covered for like 97% of that football game. I have had ZERO breaks during this contest.
I made a rule never to bet Thursday games in this contest from last year. I broke it once this year in what I thought was a prime situation (Hou vs Ind) and ended up having a losing week overall.
Betting the Thursday game is such a disadvantage in most cases b/c you have to make ALL your other picks before Friday which really sucks b/c the Friday afternoon/night practice reports can be critical for the 4 other picks.
Not only that but the games themselves are extremely high variance plays due to the short weeks/injuries etc.
Just my 2 cents. Better to avoid that game and pick the Sunday/Monday game with all the information available.
Totally agree about qb changes. Problem is, I usually shoot myself in the foot when I try to out-think what the data produces. I haven't found a way yet to adjust for that and increase success rate, and the contest line usually takes care of that anyway, unless in the rare case where a qb gets yanked or injured after the contest line is posted, but that rarely happens.
I've learned that if I think less I win more, cause I let system think for me.
Totally agree about qb changes. Problem is, I usually shoot myself in the foot when I try to out-think what the data produces. I haven't found a way yet to adjust for that and increase success rate, and the contest line usually takes care of that anyway, unless in the rare case where a qb gets yanked or injured after the contest line is posted, but that rarely happens.
I've learned that if I think less I win more, cause I let system think for me.
For me, football is fun, and having a game with a pick is fun, so I let my emotions screw up my picks. But no more. My going Thursday this week was purely based on fact that Jax was my number 1 pick. But u gotta be careful about emotions I think to win at this.
For me, football is fun, and having a game with a pick is fun, so I let my emotions screw up my picks. But no more. My going Thursday this week was purely based on fact that Jax was my number 1 pick. But u gotta be careful about emotions I think to win at this.
I made a rule never to bet Thursday games in this contest from last year. I broke it once this year in what I thought was a prime situation (Hou vs Ind) and ended up having a losing week overall.
Betting the Thursday game is such a disadvantage in most cases b/c you have to make ALL your other picks before Friday which really sucks b/c the Friday afternoon/night practice reports can be critical for the 4 other picks.
Not only that but the games themselves are extremely high variance plays due to the short weeks/injuries etc.
Just my 2 cents. Better to avoid that game and pick the Sunday/Monday game with all the information available.
I try to avoid all prime time games,Thur Night,Sun Night,Mon Night.It seems like those are the games,where some crazy things usually happen.It seems like its hard to start the week going strong ,or end the week on a hot streak.
I made a rule never to bet Thursday games in this contest from last year. I broke it once this year in what I thought was a prime situation (Hou vs Ind) and ended up having a losing week overall.
Betting the Thursday game is such a disadvantage in most cases b/c you have to make ALL your other picks before Friday which really sucks b/c the Friday afternoon/night practice reports can be critical for the 4 other picks.
Not only that but the games themselves are extremely high variance plays due to the short weeks/injuries etc.
Just my 2 cents. Better to avoid that game and pick the Sunday/Monday game with all the information available.
I try to avoid all prime time games,Thur Night,Sun Night,Mon Night.It seems like those are the games,where some crazy things usually happen.It seems like its hard to start the week going strong ,or end the week on a hot streak.
I try to avoid all prime time games,Thur Night,Sun Night,Mon Night.It seems like those are the games,where some crazy things usually happen.It seems like its hard to start the week going strong ,or end the week on a hot streak.
25-24-1 for the year
this week
Ind +5.5
GB +1
Chi -1
Phil -5.5
Sea -12.5
Good luck to everyone.
I disagree on the SNF/MNF primetime games. Generally speaking those are the games that are most influenced by perception and not fundamentals. So if you have a solid method (I use matchup analysis/statistical analysis) to identify "value" in an unbiased way you can get the best lines.
Examples: KC +4 @ San Diego, Hou +10.5 @ Cin, Ari +3 @ SEA. All perception vs reality games.
I had KC as an outright favorite, I had Hou as ~+9.5/10 and I had Ari as an outright favorite. I didn't pick the ARI game but I did pick the other 2.
I try to avoid all prime time games,Thur Night,Sun Night,Mon Night.It seems like those are the games,where some crazy things usually happen.It seems like its hard to start the week going strong ,or end the week on a hot streak.
25-24-1 for the year
this week
Ind +5.5
GB +1
Chi -1
Phil -5.5
Sea -12.5
Good luck to everyone.
I disagree on the SNF/MNF primetime games. Generally speaking those are the games that are most influenced by perception and not fundamentals. So if you have a solid method (I use matchup analysis/statistical analysis) to identify "value" in an unbiased way you can get the best lines.
Examples: KC +4 @ San Diego, Hou +10.5 @ Cin, Ari +3 @ SEA. All perception vs reality games.
I had KC as an outright favorite, I had Hou as ~+9.5/10 and I had Ari as an outright favorite. I didn't pick the ARI game but I did pick the other 2.
Ok, I went 3-2 for the week, and i'll gladly take it, as it was the roll out of my new system backed by 2500 past games with over 56% success vs. The spread. Had I only followed this from week 2 of contest (no data in week 1), I would be in top 40 or 35 of super contest. I will patiently keep posting and u can follow if u dare, and I am convinced this little devil of a system is going to ultimately put me in top 50 of this contest. For now, it worked in week 1 of official rollout, 3-2 with 6 weeks and 30 games to go.
By the way, San Francisco was horrible today, and as I feared, Romo picked apart the dolphins depleted linebacking corps .... anyway, I am smiling and peaceful that I can just plug in the data each week and get best possible results from here on out!!
Ok, I went 3-2 for the week, and i'll gladly take it, as it was the roll out of my new system backed by 2500 past games with over 56% success vs. The spread. Had I only followed this from week 2 of contest (no data in week 1), I would be in top 40 or 35 of super contest. I will patiently keep posting and u can follow if u dare, and I am convinced this little devil of a system is going to ultimately put me in top 50 of this contest. For now, it worked in week 1 of official rollout, 3-2 with 6 weeks and 30 games to go.
By the way, San Francisco was horrible today, and as I feared, Romo picked apart the dolphins depleted linebacking corps .... anyway, I am smiling and peaceful that I can just plug in the data each week and get best possible results from here on out!!
3-1, need the Pats on Monday. I took over 3 picks this week and I'm 2-0. Pats are my pick to make me 5-0 over last 2 weeks and my partner 1-4. Need to branch out on my own.
3-1, need the Pats on Monday. I took over 3 picks this week and I'm 2-0. Pats are my pick to make me 5-0 over last 2 weeks and my partner 1-4. Need to branch out on my own.
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