Individual weeks above 500 ( 1 )
Individual weeks at 500 ( 0 )
Individual weeks below 500 ( 0 )
Over the next few days, I will be posting steps to making my betting card. On Weds, I begin by filtering out games where the line is a touchdown or more. I will also be filtering out games where both teams are bad or I do not see a betting edge.
So the initial candidates are
Colts ( pk ) Texans
Browns ( - 6.5 ) Ravens
Saints ( - 4.5 ) Eagles
Bills ( + 2.5 ) Titans
Seahawks ( - 3 ) Bengals
Cards ( + 2.5 ) Lions
Broncos ( + 4.5 ) Raiders
Steelers ( - 3 ) Chargers
Here are my initial thoughts on some of these games.
On the Colts Texans game, I ask myself what kind of betting lean is there. It could be a lean for a team, a lean away from a team, or a combo lean of both teams. At the moment I do not see a lean for the Colts. I will have to examine if it is a lean away from the Colts with their under performance, being a run team, and the Luck's injury status. Moving onto the Texans, my first response is this is a lean away from the Texans. At the moment this is not a high priority bet with small bet towards the Colts.
Next on my possible card is Browns Ravens. I do not see a lean for the Browns, and I am not too excited about the Ravens either. I might go with a money line play on the Ravens if I had to make a bet. I think the Ravens will win, but am not confident it will be a touchdown or more. I will have to crunch the numbers and see what things look like ...
Saints Eagles ... I am a Saints fan, and I believe they will lose. They do play well on the road, and are not playing well overall. Also the Saints defense is bad. On the Eagles side, it is not that I do not trust the Eagles, it is just that I do not trust the Eagles At times the Eagles set themselves up to fail, and then wonder what happened ??? But if you want my opinion on a possible bet, go with the Eagles and give the points. I think that has a better risk reward than a money line play.
At the moment, I do not what the think of the Bills. Their injury situation is a major impact, and all those penalties are a warning sign. At the start of the season, I had them on my watch list as a potential good lean. I think the Titans can play well against the bottom 15 teams. So I will have to think more about this game ...
I love betting on the Bengals right now. they are solid all around at home. The Seahawks have some major flaws. I have this as a lean for the Bengals. The Seahawks are still capable of winning.
Next up is Cards Lions. I have to double check on how the Cards play on the road. With the Lions, it is a lean away situation. They are 0-4 for good reason. At the moment, I would be okay with taking the Cards ad giving the points.
Usually the Broncos are such a heavy favorite, I skip analyzing their games. I know the Broncos defense is legit and one of the best in the league. I do not like the situation of a second year qb going up against a top flight defense. Also the Raiders are a good candidate to fade. I will check into the Broncos inertia and some other metrics to see if want to make this against the spread or money line play or skip this game. I am leaning towards the Broncos ats.
In the Steelers Chargers game, the big unknown is how well will Vick play or will the Steelers coaching staff actually compensate for the situation. Off the top of my head, I think the Chargers have some injury situation going on with their offense. I will have to look into aspect. If I do not see any major reasons to fade the Chargers, I would lean towards them ats.
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, I hope to post my performance metrics.