Ok
fellas. Last week i hit both games with my own mathematical edge
system. I noticed that both games (Bills and Cardinals) covered with 28
and 31 points over the spread... no team was close to that number for
the whole week 3. Maybe Patriots with covering by 19.5 over the spread
was close but still far away to these numbers. So i think my numbers did
some good work with pointing me exactly these two games... covering
from the first quarter till the end of the game... without any pressure
or up and downs... I'm not sure that the system will find the best games
on the board (like last week) for the future but i'm glad that the numbers work in my favour so far.. it's too early for predictions but i'm blindly
believer in my methods and i will stick with them until i broke
I still haven't got finalized my plays for Sunday but i have something in my mind. I believe there will be two large upsets on Sunday and lots of people will cry here in the Covers threads. My hint or advise for now is to avoid the obvious ML parlays cause nothing is easy as it looks. When i'm ready with both of my crappy plays i will post them here in this thread with writeups to answer you why the hell i will take these awful dogs that nobody wants to take.
BOL to everybody and don't bet much on football. Have you ever seen the ball in this sport ?.... That shape could cause lots of problems... mostly for us bettors.
Ok
fellas. Last week i hit both games with my own mathematical edge
system. I noticed that both games (Bills and Cardinals) covered with 28
and 31 points over the spread... no team was close to that number for
the whole week 3. Maybe Patriots with covering by 19.5 over the spread
was close but still far away to these numbers. So i think my numbers did
some good work with pointing me exactly these two games... covering
from the first quarter till the end of the game... without any pressure
or up and downs... I'm not sure that the system will find the best games
on the board (like last week) for the future but i'm glad that the numbers work in my favour so far.. it's too early for predictions but i'm blindly
believer in my methods and i will stick with them until i broke
I still haven't got finalized my plays for Sunday but i have something in my mind. I believe there will be two large upsets on Sunday and lots of people will cry here in the Covers threads. My hint or advise for now is to avoid the obvious ML parlays cause nothing is easy as it looks. When i'm ready with both of my crappy plays i will post them here in this thread with writeups to answer you why the hell i will take these awful dogs that nobody wants to take.
BOL to everybody and don't bet much on football. Have you ever seen the ball in this sport ?.... That shape could cause lots of problems... mostly for us bettors.
Funk have you ever seen afl footy. That is my sport and the shape of the ball is same as nfl. In afl this has real impact as the game is continuous and the ball is constantly on the move.
It is our grand final this weekend so very big time of year. Afl is the best sport in the world by the way
Funk have you ever seen afl footy. That is my sport and the shape of the ball is same as nfl. In afl this has real impact as the game is continuous and the ball is constantly on the move.
It is our grand final this weekend so very big time of year. Afl is the best sport in the world by the way
Tigers i'm not familiar with the rules of this sport but i watched it once or twice on Eurosport channel here in Bulgaria. It looks more like rugby than american football for me. I have to give it a chance but it's not popular here in my country so it's difficult to fire me up and watched it.
Still watching the line movement and wait to pound my sweet crappy dogs. I will post them when i put the bets... i won't post my leans before cause i'm little superstitious.
Tigers i'm not familiar with the rules of this sport but i watched it once or twice on Eurosport channel here in Bulgaria. It looks more like rugby than american football for me. I have to give it a chance but it's not popular here in my country so it's difficult to fire me up and watched it.
Still watching the line movement and wait to pound my sweet crappy dogs. I will post them when i put the bets... i won't post my leans before cause i'm little superstitious.
The game on my radar is
Eagles at Redskins. I watched all three games of Philly so far in the season
and this team is in really bad shape right now and nobody can convince me at
the opposite. There is a lack of chemistry in this team and that would cost
money to the blind believers that Eaglesarecapable to win b2b games at
road. Eagles almost screw nice lead last week against awful looked Jets team in
the second half. They win over Jets only because the opponent play worst ball
ever. I really can’t see how could i lay points on Phillyat road… so i think this week it’s gonna be a
massive blood bath to more of 70% of the bets. Yeah… I checked almost every
popular NFL contest and people hit on Eagles hard… and they lay points also…
The reasons I heard so far from Eagles backers were: The INT machine Cousins
suck or Eagles are in must win situation or my favorite “easy money”. Nothing
is easy and nothing is money with two awful teams face each other in DIV
game.Of course on the other side I
realize that we have crap team like Washington Redskins. I can’t expect
miracles from them but I will point you some reasons to take the home side.
The game on my radar is
Eagles at Redskins. I watched all three games of Philly so far in the season
and this team is in really bad shape right now and nobody can convince me at
the opposite. There is a lack of chemistry in this team and that would cost
money to the blind believers that Eaglesarecapable to win b2b games at
road. Eagles almost screw nice lead last week against awful looked Jets team in
the second half. They win over Jets only because the opponent play worst ball
ever. I really can’t see how could i lay points on Phillyat road… so i think this week it’s gonna be a
massive blood bath to more of 70% of the bets. Yeah… I checked almost every
popular NFL contest and people hit on Eagles hard… and they lay points also…
The reasons I heard so far from Eagles backers were: The INT machine Cousins
suck or Eagles are in must win situation or my favorite “easy money”. Nothing
is easy and nothing is money with two awful teams face each other in DIV
game.Of course on the other side I
realize that we have crap team like Washington Redskins. I can’t expect
miracles from them but I will point you some reasons to take the home side.
1) Divisional game. This team is
slammed by their fans and local media. I checked most of the social media and
there is no love for the Redskins. Most of the fans hate the turnover machine
Cousins and they not believe in this team… not with that QB… not with that
ownership and coaching. This leads only to one thing… this team is hungry to
prove that everybody is wrong and they are not that bad as it looks. They will
be highly motivated to win in a direct rivalry battle. In historical plan
Redskins play good games against Eagles. I hope that Cousins will be highly
motivated cause the critics really slamming him right now. He played his best
career game last season against Eagles (IMO) which I think is important for his
mood on Sunday. I think he will be in good psychological condition for that
game. Kirk dare you to throw another multiple interceptions and I will join
most of the Redskins fans and you will be in my black list. 2) Bad weather. Yeah… it’s gonna be windy on
Sunday. What can we expect from that ? The QB advantage for Eagles is no
brainer right now despite I don’t like Bradford
either. But wind weather will force Eagles to play more ground ball with more
rushing and less passing. As we now the fast wind (forecasts predict something
like 18-20 mph on Sunday which is pretty fast) effects on a passing game so
Philly are in trouble here cause I like more Redskins rushing offense and the
worse QB in this type of game. Washington's defense holded their previous three
opponents below 85
rushing yards which is
impressive statistic for a team like that. The key for Philly of course is the
passing game… but more ball in the air in windy situation can cause some
interesting moments in the game. The QB advantage for Eagles won’t have big
influence in such type of game I guess… and I hope the forecast will be right.
3) Rest. Yeah… Redskins come off Thursday night
football last week so I will take the extra rest as a good point to support the
home side.
I realize I support the worse team here but believe me it will be much harder
for the Eagles thanit’s look on first
sight. There is already RLM in the game despite 70% of the bettors being on the
favs. As we know being a “sharp” will win you 50% of the time so we have to be
selective in our bets and know when we have to bet with the more % of the bets
and when with the less. With that being said give me
Washington Redskins + 3
and watch how even the home side will take
straight up win here.
1) Divisional game. This team is
slammed by their fans and local media. I checked most of the social media and
there is no love for the Redskins. Most of the fans hate the turnover machine
Cousins and they not believe in this team… not with that QB… not with that
ownership and coaching. This leads only to one thing… this team is hungry to
prove that everybody is wrong and they are not that bad as it looks. They will
be highly motivated to win in a direct rivalry battle. In historical plan
Redskins play good games against Eagles. I hope that Cousins will be highly
motivated cause the critics really slamming him right now. He played his best
career game last season against Eagles (IMO) which I think is important for his
mood on Sunday. I think he will be in good psychological condition for that
game. Kirk dare you to throw another multiple interceptions and I will join
most of the Redskins fans and you will be in my black list. 2) Bad weather. Yeah… it’s gonna be windy on
Sunday. What can we expect from that ? The QB advantage for Eagles is no
brainer right now despite I don’t like Bradford
either. But wind weather will force Eagles to play more ground ball with more
rushing and less passing. As we now the fast wind (forecasts predict something
like 18-20 mph on Sunday which is pretty fast) effects on a passing game so
Philly are in trouble here cause I like more Redskins rushing offense and the
worse QB in this type of game. Washington's defense holded their previous three
opponents below 85
rushing yards which is
impressive statistic for a team like that. The key for Philly of course is the
passing game… but more ball in the air in windy situation can cause some
interesting moments in the game. The QB advantage for Eagles won’t have big
influence in such type of game I guess… and I hope the forecast will be right.
3) Rest. Yeah… Redskins come off Thursday night
football last week so I will take the extra rest as a good point to support the
home side.
I realize I support the worse team here but believe me it will be much harder
for the Eagles thanit’s look on first
sight. There is already RLM in the game despite 70% of the bettors being on the
favs. As we know being a “sharp” will win you 50% of the time so we have to be
selective in our bets and know when we have to bet with the more % of the bets
and when with the less. With that being said give me
Washington Redskins + 3
and watch how even the home side will take
straight up win here.
midnightprowl It will be great bet or worse pick of the week. We will see. My system show me strong lean on the home side. I also hate to support teams that nobody likes in concrete situation but these teams sometimes cover the spread and that's why 50% of the time large square plays lose. When you see my second bet you will think that i'm completely nuts
midnightprowl It will be great bet or worse pick of the week. We will see. My system show me strong lean on the home side. I also hate to support teams that nobody likes in concrete situation but these teams sometimes cover the spread and that's why 50% of the time large square plays lose. When you see my second bet you will think that i'm completely nuts
Are you able to shed any light on your system's methodology?
Also, bear in mind washington will be playing with some backups this week where this is a strong drop off between these players and the ones previously starting.
Are you able to shed any light on your system's methodology?
Also, bear in mind washington will be playing with some backups this week where this is a strong drop off between these players and the ones previously starting.
The methodology is too hard to explain. I use many many numbers and calculations... situations from past... public percentage of bets (i use covers numbers cause there are many people who play in the contest here and also las vegas official contest selections). And mostly statistic like passing, rushing, type of touchdowns, red zone attempt/made, punts and many many other. The system showed good results in the past but there is no guarantee that will work in the future cause this is the first season i bet on NFL and i'm testing the system right now. I'm pretty sure that the system will work more with dog plays which is good for me. I found more value on dogs here in NFL. I bet with regular one unit on every play cause i don't like to separate my stronger plays with more units. My observations are that flat bets or exactly same % of the bankroll on each bet is better strategy than splitting more or less units on different games.
BOL. I'm close to my other play and midnightprowl it's not Niners or Rams but i lean them both to cover. No play on these games.
The methodology is too hard to explain. I use many many numbers and calculations... situations from past... public percentage of bets (i use covers numbers cause there are many people who play in the contest here and also las vegas official contest selections). And mostly statistic like passing, rushing, type of touchdowns, red zone attempt/made, punts and many many other. The system showed good results in the past but there is no guarantee that will work in the future cause this is the first season i bet on NFL and i'm testing the system right now. I'm pretty sure that the system will work more with dog plays which is good for me. I found more value on dogs here in NFL. I bet with regular one unit on every play cause i don't like to separate my stronger plays with more units. My observations are that flat bets or exactly same % of the bankroll on each bet is better strategy than splitting more or less units on different games.
BOL. I'm close to my other play and midnightprowl it's not Niners or Rams but i lean them both to cover. No play on these games.
1) Carolina IMO are not 3-0 team despite the cupcake schedule so far in the season. Road win against one of the worst teams in the league – Jaguars, win over the Texans at home.. Houston are awful road team especially on offense and almost screwed win over Breesless Saints last week. Josh Norman safe them from a secure win TD in the last moments of the game with one of the plays of the week. It’s just question of time this team to fail… and I think we have perfect spot this weekend. 2) Cam Newton is in MVP discussion after first three weeks in the season. Yeah he has no chance in that competition but even mentioning his name among players like Brady, Rodgers and Manning will negatively impact his game on Sunday. I’m not sure this will be right but I have feeling that we can expect bad game for Newton after this discussion. 3) More than 70% of the bets are on Carolina. I hate to support teams that are hit hard by so many people… especially suspicious road favorites. That is a recipe for disaster.
Why I like Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week:
First of all i don't like Tampa Bay as a team but my numbers strongly recommend this play. Despite that: 1) Their rookie QB start to look better any next game. Many fans of TB bashes him right now but they have to give him a chance. He is rookie and need some time to adjust in the league with the big boys. Last game Winston statistic isn't the same with the reality i saw in their game against Texans. He throws some very good passes last week against Houston but the WR’s were disaster that game. If you watched it you will know what I’m talking about. 2) I’m not sure they can repeat last week performance. Poor receiving (more than 10 clear catches slip over the hands of the recievers) and three (yes three!) missed field goals cost them a lost against Texans. If they was just an idea better I’m pretty sure that Bucs would win that game. This team need to bounce back in front of their home crowd after the opening afternoon against Titans were they were demolished. Bucs shows signs of life in week 2 against Saints (with Brees) so I think this team is capable of winning. They just need two or three pieces to complete the winning puzzle. I think we have perfect situation to support them this week. Or just covering the field goal line set by the books.
As I mention every week here in my threads: “Nothing is easy as it looks”. With that being said give me
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3 (-105)
I still waiting for some line movement if i can catch 3.5 but i will take the current spread at this price any day any week. So count my play in. I also have Washington Redskins + 3 (-105) locked with writeup in posts #6 and #7. So two home dogs for now. I have huge lean on SNF but still waiting for news in that game cause my numbers are not clear yet.
1) Carolina IMO are not 3-0 team despite the cupcake schedule so far in the season. Road win against one of the worst teams in the league – Jaguars, win over the Texans at home.. Houston are awful road team especially on offense and almost screwed win over Breesless Saints last week. Josh Norman safe them from a secure win TD in the last moments of the game with one of the plays of the week. It’s just question of time this team to fail… and I think we have perfect spot this weekend. 2) Cam Newton is in MVP discussion after first three weeks in the season. Yeah he has no chance in that competition but even mentioning his name among players like Brady, Rodgers and Manning will negatively impact his game on Sunday. I’m not sure this will be right but I have feeling that we can expect bad game for Newton after this discussion. 3) More than 70% of the bets are on Carolina. I hate to support teams that are hit hard by so many people… especially suspicious road favorites. That is a recipe for disaster.
Why I like Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week:
First of all i don't like Tampa Bay as a team but my numbers strongly recommend this play. Despite that: 1) Their rookie QB start to look better any next game. Many fans of TB bashes him right now but they have to give him a chance. He is rookie and need some time to adjust in the league with the big boys. Last game Winston statistic isn't the same with the reality i saw in their game against Texans. He throws some very good passes last week against Houston but the WR’s were disaster that game. If you watched it you will know what I’m talking about. 2) I’m not sure they can repeat last week performance. Poor receiving (more than 10 clear catches slip over the hands of the recievers) and three (yes three!) missed field goals cost them a lost against Texans. If they was just an idea better I’m pretty sure that Bucs would win that game. This team need to bounce back in front of their home crowd after the opening afternoon against Titans were they were demolished. Bucs shows signs of life in week 2 against Saints (with Brees) so I think this team is capable of winning. They just need two or three pieces to complete the winning puzzle. I think we have perfect situation to support them this week. Or just covering the field goal line set by the books.
As I mention every week here in my threads: “Nothing is easy as it looks”. With that being said give me
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3 (-105)
I still waiting for some line movement if i can catch 3.5 but i will take the current spread at this price any day any week. So count my play in. I also have Washington Redskins + 3 (-105) locked with writeup in posts #6 and #7. So two home dogs for now. I have huge lean on SNF but still waiting for news in that game cause my numbers are not clear yet.
Hey Funk, I saw your post about the Redskins being hungry. Do you think Gruden is a good motivator ? I do not. I lean the Eagles, but think the Redskins could win. I am not sold the eagles have fixed their problems.
Putting money on the Bucs would give me the heebie jeebies.
Hey Funk, I saw your post about the Redskins being hungry. Do you think Gruden is a good motivator ? I do not. I lean the Eagles, but think the Redskins could win. I am not sold the eagles have fixed their problems.
Putting money on the Bucs would give me the heebie jeebies.
Love to here more about your system some time but I do agree on your picks of TB and Washington this week,I'm on opposite of Rams though the Cardinals are just clicking big time right now and I believe they put 30 or more on StLouis ! Leaning Jets because Miami just have no chemistry and divisional game where Jets know their hurting,they will kick the fins while their down Jets +1.5
Love to here more about your system some time but I do agree on your picks of TB and Washington this week,I'm on opposite of Rams though the Cardinals are just clicking big time right now and I believe they put 30 or more on StLouis ! Leaning Jets because Miami just have no chemistry and divisional game where Jets know their hurting,they will kick the fins while their down Jets +1.5
MagicMan64 I think the biggest motivator for Redskins are the fans and local media who slammed them game after game. If that can't motivate you... you don't deserve to play in that league.
DogbiteWilliams Friend request accepted White Green and Red. Yep.
paydirtpro I have small lean on Rams but can't put money against Cardinals right now. Here i'm agree with you. I like Jets more than Dolphins but this game is coin toss for me and i will pass with pleasure. I can't share insight for my system cause it's very complicated. I use many many parameters statistics lines injuries weather forecast to explain when a game become a play for me. I hope the numbers won't let me down and i will make some money this year. We will see... i can't guarantee you winner after winner cause there is not such a thing. I predict 40-50 plays this season (including playoffs) so if i hit something like 55-59% i will be glad.
BulletBob15 Being anti-consensus or anti-square player will bring you 47-53% winners in long term which is not enough to be winning capper. But if you find the best spots when you have to go with the squares and when you have to go with sharps will brings you lot of money. That's the philosophy of my system. To find these spots. I will repeat.. i'm not sure that it will work properly in the future. In the past results are very impressive so we will see. I recommend you to use my system plays as a helping guide and additional opinion not as "follow material" cause we all could burn And it's not right that the system places lot of weight only on anti-consensus picks. Last week i hit Arizona Cardinals - 6 over Niners and Buffalo Bills + 3 over Dolphins which was both square p;ays more than 60% plays.
BOL to you fellas. I appreciate your contribution in my thread. Feel free to post any opinion on my picks and share your view for the games. No play on SNF... so my final card is:
Washington Redskins + 3 (-105) Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3 (-105)
I support two of the worst teams on the board this week. Let's see what will happened.
MagicMan64 I think the biggest motivator for Redskins are the fans and local media who slammed them game after game. If that can't motivate you... you don't deserve to play in that league.
DogbiteWilliams Friend request accepted White Green and Red. Yep.
paydirtpro I have small lean on Rams but can't put money against Cardinals right now. Here i'm agree with you. I like Jets more than Dolphins but this game is coin toss for me and i will pass with pleasure. I can't share insight for my system cause it's very complicated. I use many many parameters statistics lines injuries weather forecast to explain when a game become a play for me. I hope the numbers won't let me down and i will make some money this year. We will see... i can't guarantee you winner after winner cause there is not such a thing. I predict 40-50 plays this season (including playoffs) so if i hit something like 55-59% i will be glad.
BulletBob15 Being anti-consensus or anti-square player will bring you 47-53% winners in long term which is not enough to be winning capper. But if you find the best spots when you have to go with the squares and when you have to go with sharps will brings you lot of money. That's the philosophy of my system. To find these spots. I will repeat.. i'm not sure that it will work properly in the future. In the past results are very impressive so we will see. I recommend you to use my system plays as a helping guide and additional opinion not as "follow material" cause we all could burn And it's not right that the system places lot of weight only on anti-consensus picks. Last week i hit Arizona Cardinals - 6 over Niners and Buffalo Bills + 3 over Dolphins which was both square p;ays more than 60% plays.
BOL to you fellas. I appreciate your contribution in my thread. Feel free to post any opinion on my picks and share your view for the games. No play on SNF... so my final card is:
Washington Redskins + 3 (-105) Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3 (-105)
I support two of the worst teams on the board this week. Let's see what will happened.
1-1 for this week. 4 INT for Tampa Bay... wtf. 2 missed field goals when Carolina leads 17-10.... this really is a garbage team. Winston made so weird decision during the game. And Washington almost screw the game after the good first half.. At least they pull the win and the cover in the last drive to safe the day...
1-1 for this week. 4 INT for Tampa Bay... wtf. 2 missed field goals when Carolina leads 17-10.... this really is a garbage team. Winston made so weird decision during the game. And Washington almost screw the game after the good first half.. At least they pull the win and the cover in the last drive to safe the day...
1-1 for this week. 4 INT for Tampa Bay... wtf. 2 missed field goals when Carolina leads 17-10.... this really is a garbage team. Winston made so weird decision during the game. And Washington almost screw the game after the good first half.. At least they pull the win and the cover in the last drive to safe the day...
Mathematical Edge System: 4-2-0 + 1.80 units
That's why you never bet on Jameis Winston against a good defense lol.
I respect most low end quarterbacks more than the amount of hate they get, but in Winston's case... it's unbelievable that he's starting for an NFL team let alone drafted number 1.
I told everyone the Bucs were making a HUGE mistake when they took him instead of Mariota. Mariota is in another class. I was never even impressed with Winston in college, so how could he possibly pan out in the NFL...
1-1 for this week. 4 INT for Tampa Bay... wtf. 2 missed field goals when Carolina leads 17-10.... this really is a garbage team. Winston made so weird decision during the game. And Washington almost screw the game after the good first half.. At least they pull the win and the cover in the last drive to safe the day...
Mathematical Edge System: 4-2-0 + 1.80 units
That's why you never bet on Jameis Winston against a good defense lol.
I respect most low end quarterbacks more than the amount of hate they get, but in Winston's case... it's unbelievable that he's starting for an NFL team let alone drafted number 1.
I told everyone the Bucs were making a HUGE mistake when they took him instead of Mariota. Mariota is in another class. I was never even impressed with Winston in college, so how could he possibly pan out in the NFL...
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