I recognize it's pre-season and there are many unknowns - I used to avoid pre-season but started studying it several years ago and found using the end of the seasons numbers along with the opening lines to the present games and found there are some spots where the data does apply. This is one of those games - let's look at some numbers:
Clev 17 20 32 11 24 26 (50)
3 TB 29 26 17 26 30 29 (59)
TB opens up as a 3 pt favorite - currently around 2.5. Last years numbers ended with Clev better in Of. Rushing, Off. Passing, Tb better in Def. rushing, and Clev better in Def Passing, Sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength. Clev Sagarin Composite is 50 while TB composite is 59. When you have this scenario - where the away team is better in 5 categories and the home team is only better in 1 - however, the oddsmakers have made TB the favorite - you take the home team - TB. This was the same case as lastweek with TB playing Cincy.
I recognize it's pre-season and there are many unknowns - I used to avoid pre-season but started studying it several years ago and found using the end of the seasons numbers along with the opening lines to the present games and found there are some spots where the data does apply. This is one of those games - let's look at some numbers:
Clev 17 20 32 11 24 26 (50)
3 TB 29 26 17 26 30 29 (59)
TB opens up as a 3 pt favorite - currently around 2.5. Last years numbers ended with Clev better in Of. Rushing, Off. Passing, Tb better in Def. rushing, and Clev better in Def Passing, Sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength. Clev Sagarin Composite is 50 while TB composite is 59. When you have this scenario - where the away team is better in 5 categories and the home team is only better in 1 - however, the oddsmakers have made TB the favorite - you take the home team - TB. This was the same case as lastweek with TB playing Cincy.
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