Thursday Night Football: Denver Broncos -7 -115
Breakdown: Peyton Manning is 18-2 SU and 14-6 ATS at home since joining the Broncos, outscoring opponents by 16.25 points. Manning is also 7-1 SU 6-2 ATS on TNF games on a short week. The only SU loss happenend to ? The San Diego Chargers in week 15 of the last season. On the Sunday before, the Broncos played a tough game against the Titans in which they needed a good fourth quarter performance and the Chargers have rested Rivers and some starters from the beginning of the fourth quarter in their easy win against the New York Giants. What changed from that game to now ? San Diego look way better on defense, but is their defensive unit for real ? They had the weakest schedule in the league, facing the Jets, Jaguars and Raiders for example who have two combined wins. Their defense ranks #7 in YPPA (6.3) and #24 in YPC (4.5) despite their strength (or weak) of schedule. The Chiefs ran all over them and Alex Smith - who is #25 in the league in YPPA - was able to go for 7.5 YPPA this time, that would equal the Colts average number this season. Offensively, San Diego looked like one of the hottest teams in the league before last week. Against Kansas City they finally came back to earth. They only went for 5.9 YPPA - that number is #29 in the league compared to average numbers of all teams. Chargers ran the ball more effectively than in their recent games, but KC are way better against the pass and bottom 10 against the run. Finally, the Chargers have put average numbers on the board against an average defense. Due to injuries, the Chargers running game is worst in the league (3.0 YPC). Chargers faced two solid teams and lost both. In addition, they almost lost against the 0-6 Raiders. Now the Chargers travel to Mile High with their one-dimensional offense and face the BEST defense in the league right now. The Broncos are #5 against the run (3.3 YPC), just 0.1 yard shy of the first place, and #2 against the pass (5.8 YPPA). Their defense is much improved from last year. They held the Colts to 10 points for 52 minutes, just to concede garbage touchdowns late in the fourth. It was the only game they conceded more than 20 points in regulation time. Denver's defensive line is getting better every game, they collected the most sacks per game in the league. Rivers will have a hard time with them. I doubt the Chargers will score more than 17 here. Peyton Manning is on a roll and can make the Chargers secondary look like the North Carolina Tar Heels against the ECU Pirates. On top of that, Jason Verrett is out and Brandon Flowers is dealing with a concussion - he won't be completely healthy on Thursday. Chargers will be running like a bunch of chickens in the backfield.
Situational angle: Both teams are on short rest, but the Chargers played a tough divisional game for 60 minutes against the Chiefs and have to travel, while the Broncos rested Manning and some key players from the beginning of the fourth quarter against San Fran. Chargers almost lost against Oakland and lost against Kansas City. They won't have the most confidence. Peyton Manning and the Broncos overcame a strong front seven of the Jets on the road and blew the Niners out. They got huge momentum coming into this game.
Conclusion: Seriously, it is the NFL and anything can happen, but there is nothing that makes me believe the Chargers can keep this game within 14 points. Denver will steamroll the Chargers to make another statement and shut down the rebellious and little overrated Chargers. Give me 38-17 Denver.
Sunday: New York Jets -3 -110
I wanted to not bet on the Jets anymore till they get some things fixed but they showed solid performances against the Broncos and Patriots and my leans went right in five of their seven games. Also this spot is too good to pass up. The Jets have been playing better than their record is. They had their worst game in years against the Chargers. Besides that, they almost forced overtime at Green Bay, outgained the Bears by 157 yards, were in the game against Detroit and almost beat the Patriots on the road, outgaining them by 100 yards. The Jets front seven played great against Manning and Tom Brady. They will eat the Bills o-line alive and make Kyle Orton seeking for the final whistle. It will be a big mismatch in that game. Bills have lost both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller against the Vikings. They will have no running game and have to rely on Kyle Orton - ouch. The Jets front seven will win this game by themselves. The young secondary of New York have been struggling a lot during this season and a few changes didn't make it better. But with Kyle Orton responsible for the offensive game, they can step up big time. Buffalo offense are #26 in YPPA and their running game was average (#16, 4.1 YPC) with Jackson and Spiller in the lineup. Jets defense ranks #6 against the run with 4.7 YPC - bullseye. They rank #16 against the pass (6.8), but faced top category Rodgers, Brady & Manning and Rivers, Stafford & Cutler. Playing against Kyle Orton who has to air it out will be an easy game. The only thing that doesn't look easy on paper is the Jets offense. They have the sixth best running game in the league, but Buffalo defense has been the best against the run. So Geno Smith will probably have some workload to do on Sunday. But the Jets defense, especially their front seven will take care of some short fields for Geno and his new weapon Percy Harvin who could study for more than a week. Eric Decker looked very healthy against NE and now had ten days to get even more healthier. Against the Bills, he won't have a shutdown corner against him. Geno Smith with Eric Decker & Percy Harvin against the weak Bills secondary ? Should be enough to take care of what their defense will bring to the table and they still have a good running game which won't be the best against the Bills but can create space for a few play action passes. I think the Bills won't score more than 10 points and the Jets should be able to score 17-21 along with a defensive score.
As always, comments & constructive critisicm are welcomed. I am open for every useful discussion