Quote Originally Posted by 808-Warrior:
summa:
Though I like your logic on the Raven games, I just can't see the Falcons weak make-shift OL not getting manhandled. Also, I don't ever recall a Ravens defense taking the pedal off and have a hard time seeing the Falcons come back in the game if they wall way behind.
If it does in fact does go the way you see it, then it will go OVER the total no problem. I wonder if that is the safer bet. My worry was Atlanta being able to score because they won't be able to run at all on the Ravens, forcing them to pass. Even the Colts at home had a tough time scoring on the Ravens. Your thoughts?
Thanks for your respond. First of all, I'm not the best at picking totals and I believe there is no "safer bet" ever. Anyhow, I get your point. This game could likely end in a shootout, but there is another scenario that I would feel comfortable with: Ravens gonna underestimate the Falcons, don't show up on defense with their heads being in Cincinnati and Falcons go up 17-7 during the first half along with an interception by Joe Flacco. Ravens wake up during halftime, come back and play some tough defense. Falcons only score two field goals in the second half due to Baltimore stepping up on defense and Atlanta not calling risky plays because they see a chance of winning. The Ravens rally to a 24-23 win. Ravens won & Falcons covered the spread - over backers look mad. That result would be a possible outcome of my analysis.
I don't think the Colts had a tough time scoring on the Ravens. I watched some of the game. They outgained them 432-287 in total yardage, but turned the ball over four times:
-Turnover on downs on BAL 21
-Interception on BAL 38
-Interception on BAL 0
-Fumble on the BAL 10
The Colts were able to walk downfield from inside their red zone into the Ravens' red zone all game long. On a different day, the final score could have looked like 37-13. Their red zone efficiency was bad. Falcons are #1 in the league in TD scoring percentage in the red zone with 75%. As I mentioned, the Ravens have been vulnerable against the pass and the Falcons can take advantage of it. You are right about their o-line not being the best, but they only conceded 1.7 sacks per game - good for #11 in the league. Despite their o-line and their 2-4 record, they have been one of the best teams in the league offensively:
- #3 in total yards (410)
- #1 in yards per play (6.4)
- #6 in offensive touchdowns (3.0)
- #1 in red zone TD percentage (75%)
- #3 in passing yards per game (306.8)
- #7 in yards per pass attempt (7.7)
- #10 in yards per rush attempt (4.6)
Baltimore has been good against the run so far, but Atlanta have been running the ball for 4.6 yards per attempt. I don't think Baltimore will take the running game completely, as they have to focus on the Falcons passing game.
All in all, I think Atlanta will be able to score in this game. The over looks tempting, but I will just stick with the Falcons getting a touchdown here as I can see a cover without crossing the total of 50.
I hope I could answer yours and the question of
NFLfan666. Feel free to contribute to my respond.