Aside from the SD play, I'm not crazy about these plays.
The Jets play is very, very risky and although it is at the bottom of your list since you listed them chronologically, it is your biggest play of the day (3.5 + .5 = 4 units). That's a large chunk of change to be risking here.
You are correct in saying that the Jets will run the ball and the Packers have a terrible run defense at the moment. The Jets will lean on the run to take pressure off Geno and control the clock and keep the Packers offense on the field. They can do nothing else.
But that OP doesn't address the Jets defense. And the main fear here is the same as it was last week...the corners.
It's still Antonio Allen (who now has 1 career start at corner and is not a corner or should be) and Darrin Walls (who has 5 career starts and really is a backup).
The good news is Dee Millner will be back. The bad news is this will be his very first action of the season. While Millner is much better than the above two names, he is overhyped at times and has not played a single down at game speed due to injury. To ask him to play shutdown D in this spot is out of the question.
Now who are all three up against? The best of the best. That's a tall order for week 2.
Remember, these corners did a very good job last week against a QB who had exactly 0 career starts in the NFL...and the Jets were at home.
Those first few series will determine if the Jets can pull this one out, or even stay inside the number, because when the Packers are on offense, they won't be looking for FG's.
The other thing that disturbs me is that the 70+ yard run at the end of the game for the Jets to put it away (but still lose ATS on a late Raider TD!) had Rex doing cartwheels on the sideline.
Calm down Rex. It's the worst team in the league and you are at home and you are up against a rookie QB to boot. If this team or coach is on any kind of 'high' because of last week's win, they need a quick reality check because they are walking into a lion's den this week and they're wearing Lady Gaga's meat suit.
Remember, your quoted average of 7.3 YPC includes that aberration of a 70+ yard run that won't happen this week. That is an outlier. That's a matter of debate though.
The Jets running game better be effective and it better be effective early for you to win this, even at +7.5. This is a number that can be backdoored late and the pressure will be on Rodgers given the Jets front 7 and the Packers O-line issues (of which there are several) but that being said, I wouldn't put more than a unit on this regardless of the side and I wouldn't even risk losing a Buffalo nickel the Jets ML, nevermind a .5 unit.
Aside from the SD play, I'm not crazy about these plays.
The Jets play is very, very risky and although it is at the bottom of your list since you listed them chronologically, it is your biggest play of the day (3.5 + .5 = 4 units). That's a large chunk of change to be risking here.
You are correct in saying that the Jets will run the ball and the Packers have a terrible run defense at the moment. The Jets will lean on the run to take pressure off Geno and control the clock and keep the Packers offense on the field. They can do nothing else.
But that OP doesn't address the Jets defense. And the main fear here is the same as it was last week...the corners.
It's still Antonio Allen (who now has 1 career start at corner and is not a corner or should be) and Darrin Walls (who has 5 career starts and really is a backup).
The good news is Dee Millner will be back. The bad news is this will be his very first action of the season. While Millner is much better than the above two names, he is overhyped at times and has not played a single down at game speed due to injury. To ask him to play shutdown D in this spot is out of the question.
Now who are all three up against? The best of the best. That's a tall order for week 2.
Remember, these corners did a very good job last week against a QB who had exactly 0 career starts in the NFL...and the Jets were at home.
Those first few series will determine if the Jets can pull this one out, or even stay inside the number, because when the Packers are on offense, they won't be looking for FG's.
The other thing that disturbs me is that the 70+ yard run at the end of the game for the Jets to put it away (but still lose ATS on a late Raider TD!) had Rex doing cartwheels on the sideline.
Calm down Rex. It's the worst team in the league and you are at home and you are up against a rookie QB to boot. If this team or coach is on any kind of 'high' because of last week's win, they need a quick reality check because they are walking into a lion's den this week and they're wearing Lady Gaga's meat suit.
Remember, your quoted average of 7.3 YPC includes that aberration of a 70+ yard run that won't happen this week. That is an outlier. That's a matter of debate though.
The Jets running game better be effective and it better be effective early for you to win this, even at +7.5. This is a number that can be backdoored late and the pressure will be on Rodgers given the Jets front 7 and the Packers O-line issues (of which there are several) but that being said, I wouldn't put more than a unit on this regardless of the side and I wouldn't even risk losing a Buffalo nickel the Jets ML, nevermind a .5 unit.
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