Super bowl line - going up or down?

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Super bowl line - going up or down?
lsharks PM lsharks
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Posted: 2/1/2013 6:07:52 PM
It is -4 now in VEGAS!  It may go to 4.5 by game time..
budwiser PM budwiser
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Posted: 2/1/2013 6:20:16 PM
i think it sticks at -4.  occasional places -4.5

reason is -4.5 may as well be -6.5.  that is one hell of a spread to beat.  sf would have to win by a touchdown or more, realistically.  whoever bets the niners would have to expect an easy win or blowout against the ravens, who just beat brady and manning and luck straight up.
budwiser PM budwiser
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Posted: 2/1/2013 6:22:47 PM
i'd say -3.5 is already difficult.  imo san fran would have to win by 7+.  you don't see a lot of 4, 5, 6 point wins.

-3 is an easy number.  15% of ALL nfl games end with a team win by a field goal.
budwiser PM budwiser
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Posted: 2/1/2013 6:24:20 PM
offshore plenty of -3.5's.  so it should stick at 4, max.
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/1/2013 8:27:44 PM

For all of the discussion about the line moving today, it hasnt moved a penny at Pinnacle.

Still -3.5 -109.

But I have noticed that most think it goes to at least -4.  Good stuff.

glyde69 PM glyde69
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Posted: 2/1/2013 9:57:52 PM
Europa, I'm all over the 49ers. Hit them -3.5 and also some alternate lines of -7.5 and -10.5. My book extremely cheap on those lines and almost to the point where I stayed away, but I'm going really light on the props this year so hit those alternate lines. Only prop I like is Kobe Bryant to hit more 3 pointers than Flacco throws TD passes. I got it -110 and my book now has it -150 for Kobe so I'm happy with that wager. Who u like? I'm surprised I'm taking a rook in the big game as I planned on fading SF, but just not a fan of the Ravens. I ranted all year what a garbage team they were. Faded them 8 times this year and hit 7 of 8(only loss was taking Dallas ML in a game they should have won). Then playoffs came, and I was dead set on fading them whoever they played 1st round. But they got the other team in the NFL I swore I would fade 1st round, so I hit Balt. Then next round they played a team who I thought was extremely overrated(Peyton the playoff king of overthinking things and throwing 2 yard passes and either winning or losing by 3) so I surprisingly hit Baltimore again. Then the NE line was a few points higher than I thought it should have been so hit Baltimore again based on value. Now I'm getting off. Part of me thinks I'm nuts taking a baby QB over Flacco, but SF IMO is just the better team in every facit(ST edge for Ravens not the big deal the "experts" claim imo).

Vanzack, I commented earlier on how i thought the SF line would eek up to -4/-4.5 by game time and I just noticed my book just moved from 3.5 to 4 just a few minutes ago. I'm gonna change my stance on where the line goes right now.

I noticed a trend with lines the middle of last year that continued into this year. I got burnt a handful of times as it was different than what ive seen in prior years, but adapted and I think I got it down. With certain games(at least one or two a week it seems), FRIDAY NIGHT the line moves in a certain direction. Its always in key spots like moving off 3 or 4 or a jump from 6.5 to 7.5. In the past, if I was eyeing the Fav, seeing the movement meant JUMP ON IT NOW, or WAIT if I liked the dog in said game. Because once that line started to move, it wasnt going back. But last year and a half or so, that early weekend movement(usually Friday night) more often than not is a feint by the books. The Friday night "creep" no longer is a continuing thing.

So if it was 3.5 into Sunday and THEN starts to move like I predicted, it would be 4.5 by kickoff. But seeing it move the way it did NOW( ML also moved decently from Balt +145 yesterday to +155 this morning to +170 now), I would wager it stays at -4 for a bit, possibly -4.5, then BANG it will be down to 3 in a heartbeat.

Sorry if I'm rambling. I'm high as a kite!

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glyde69 PM glyde69
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Posted: 2/1/2013 10:19:43 PM
VZ, just realized that u wanted to use Pinnacle as the basis for discussion. My bad man, I've been rambling about lines from my local.

Once upon a time, Pinny was my whole world...until they stopped taking US customers. Then I survived with a mix of BetUs, two locals, and Matchbook(beast for MLB betting). Then matchbook stopped taking US customers. Tried for a bit juggling a few other overseas books, but they increasingly all started to melt together with the same mediocre lines and I got out of online books completely when it was a 2 month struggle to collect 7.5k out of a "reputable" book.

The local i use now does seem to be in tune with Pinnacle though. My guy will usually shade the favs a bit, but more often than not, is a mirror to what Pinny is doing. Just took a quick look and Pinny still at -3.5. I'm actually a bit surprised as like I said, my local usually mirrors them to a degree.
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Gold_Rush PM Gold_Rush
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Posted: 2/2/2013 1:49:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

The wrong team is favored IMNHO 


I agree is it because the miners are the higher seed? That's all I can figure - note the AFC was a 2.5 favorite before the ravens beat the pats so they may have been assuming the pats were going to win and the public would have bet on the pats as they always do 

Interesting to see the line reverse itself in such grand fashion
dimndimn PM dimndimn
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Posted: 2/2/2013 2:04:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:


I agree is it because the miners are the higher seed? That's all I can figure - note the AFC was a 2.5 favorite before the ravens beat the pats so they may have been assuming the pats were going to win and the public would have bet on the pats as they always do 

Interesting to see the line reverse itself in such grand fashion

I think you are correct in AFC being a 2.5 fav late in the playoffs.  I may be wrong, but I recall very early in the season that the NFC was favored.  Don't remember exactly, was in the same neighborhood of 2.5 but I swear when it first came out NFC was the favorite.
Europa PM Europa
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Posted: 2/2/2013 2:11:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

Europa, I'm all over the 49ers. Hit them -3.5 and also some alternate lines of -7.5 and -10.5. My book extremely cheap on those lines and almost to the point where I stayed away, but I'm going really light on the props this year so hit those alternate lines. Only prop I like is Kobe Bryant to hit more 3 pointers than Flacco throws TD passes. I got it -110 and my book now has it -150 for Kobe so I'm happy with that wager. Who u like? I'm surprised I'm taking a rook in the big game as I planned on fading SF, but just not a fan of the Ravens. I ranted all year what a garbage team they were. Faded them 8 times this year and hit 7 of 8(only loss was taking Dallas ML in a game they should have won). Then playoffs came, and I was dead set on fading them whoever they played 1st round. But they got the other team in the NFL I swore I would fade 1st round, so I hit Balt. Then next round they played a team who I thought was extremely overrated(Peyton the playoff king of overthinking things and throwing 2 yard passes and either winning or losing by 3) so I surprisingly hit Baltimore again. Then the NE line was a few points higher than I thought it should have been so hit Baltimore again based on value. Now I'm getting off. Part of me thinks I'm nuts taking a baby QB over Flacco, but SF IMO is just the better team in every facit(ST edge for Ravens not the big deal the "experts" claim imo).

Vanzack, I commented earlier on how i thought the SF line would eek up to -4/-4.5 by game time and I just noticed my book just moved from 3.5 to 4 just a few minutes ago. I'm gonna change my stance on where the line goes right now.

I noticed a trend with lines the middle of last year that continued into this year. I got burnt a handful of times as it was different than what ive seen in prior years, but adapted and I think I got it down. With certain games(at least one or two a week it seems), FRIDAY NIGHT the line moves in a certain direction. Its always in key spots like moving off 3 or 4 or a jump from 6.5 to 7.5. In the past, if I was eyeing the Fav, seeing the movement meant JUMP ON IT NOW, or WAIT if I liked the dog in said game. Because once that line started to move, it wasnt going back. But last year and a half or so, that early weekend movement(usually Friday night) more often than not is a feint by the books. The Friday night "creep" no longer is a continuing thing.

So if it was 3.5 into Sunday and THEN starts to move like I predicted, it would be 4.5 by kickoff. But seeing it move the way it did NOW( ML also moved decently from Balt +145 yesterday to +155 this morning to +170 now), I would wager it stays at -4 for a bit, possibly -4.5, then BANG it will be down to 3 in a heartbeat.

Sorry if I'm rambling. I'm high as a kite!


Like SF myself, took 1 unit of ML before they played ATL. Also added -3.5 for .5u earlier last week. I think SF are better in line of scrimmage, physicality and speed, they should beat Baltimore by 10 plus pts. Best of luck, Glyde bud!  
Gold_Rush PM Gold_Rush
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Posted: 2/2/2013 2:12:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dimndimn:


I think you are correct in AFC being a 2.5 fav late in the playoffs.  I may be wrong, but I recall very early in the season that the NFC was favored.  Don't remember exactly, was in the same neighborhood of 2.5 but I swear when it first came out NFC was the favorite.

I was in Vegas opening weekend and I do recall the NFC being an early favorite if course that was because at the time he giants had won the Super Bowl so it would make sense that the giants / NFC would be the early favorite 
ApocalypseLater PM ApocalypseLater
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Posted: 2/2/2013 5:18:28 AM
4
BigPapa21 PM BigPapa21
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Posted: 2/2/2013 7:26:48 AM
when the last game was over and the teams were decided right away I thought what should the line be? I thought SF - 4. It was 4.5 the first one i seen at 5 dimes. i liked ravens a lot then and still do. 3.5 seems like the fair line where you'll get even action both ways. I feel at -3 the sf action would be heavy. The .5 evens it out i feel. also to me flacko is the big difference. he makes very few mistakes. ravens will not overcome a negative turnover difference. that will be the key. GL
luckyhands PM luckyhands
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Posted: 2/2/2013 11:09:01 AM
there is your one cent move at Pinnacle Vanzack..............yet I do not know what your motivation is to find out why people on Covers.com forum think the line will do against the Pinnacle line when 99% of the covers community cannot bet there. I know they are the largest in the world but that doesn't correlate as to why you want to know what people here think the line will do at that particular book. 
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 2/2/2013 12:07:18 PM
Pinnacle will be -4 by game time....
budwiser PM budwiser
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Posted: 2/2/2013 12:14:15 PM
everything's stuck at -4 in vegas right now, flat.  as if the wall of china was there to prevent it from being any different.
luckyhands PM luckyhands
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Posted: 2/2/2013 12:18:35 PM
Pinnacle at -4 -104
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/2/2013 2:55:49 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by glyde69:

Europa, I'm all over the 49ers. Hit them -3.5 and also some alternate lines of -7.5 and -10.5. My book extremely cheap on those lines and almost to the point where I stayed away, but I'm going really light on the props this year so hit those alternate lines. Only prop I like is Kobe Bryant to hit more 3 pointers than Flacco throws TD passes. I got it -110 and my book now has it -150 for Kobe so I'm happy with that wager. Who u like? I'm surprised I'm taking a rook in the big game as I planned on fading SF, but just not a fan of the Ravens. I ranted all year what a garbage team they were. Faded them 8 times this year and hit 7 of 8(only loss was taking Dallas ML in a game they should have won). Then playoffs came, and I was dead set on fading them whoever they played 1st round. But they got the other team in the NFL I swore I would fade 1st round, so I hit Balt. Then next round they played a team who I thought was extremely overrated(Peyton the playoff king of overthinking things and throwing 2 yard passes and either winning or losing by 3) so I surprisingly hit Baltimore again. Then the NE line was a few points higher than I thought it should have been so hit Baltimore again based on value. Now I'm getting off. Part of me thinks I'm nuts taking a baby QB over Flacco, but SF IMO is just the better team in every facit(ST edge for Ravens not the big deal the "experts" claim imo).

Vanzack, I commented earlier on how i thought the SF line would eek up to -4/-4.5 by game time and I just noticed my book just moved from 3.5 to 4 just a few minutes ago. I'm gonna change my stance on where the line goes right now.

I noticed a trend with lines the middle of last year that continued into this year. I got burnt a handful of times as it was different than what ive seen in prior years, but adapted and I think I got it down. With certain games(at least one or two a week it seems), FRIDAY NIGHT the line moves in a certain direction. Its always in key spots like moving off 3 or 4 or a jump from 6.5 to 7.5. In the past, if I was eyeing the Fav, seeing the movement meant JUMP ON IT NOW, or WAIT if I liked the dog in said game. Because once that line started to move, it wasnt going back. But last year and a half or so, that early weekend movement(usually Friday night) more often than not is a feint by the books. The Friday night "creep" no longer is a continuing thing.

So if it was 3.5 into Sunday and THEN starts to move like I predicted, it would be 4.5 by kickoff. But seeing it move the way it did NOW( ML also moved decently from Balt +145 yesterday to +155 this morning to +170 now), I would wager it stays at -4 for a bit, possibly -4.5, then BANG it will be down to 3 in a heartbeat.

Sorry if I'm rambling. I'm high as a kite!

Very interesting - love the info - will watch this.

vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/2/2013 2:57:37 PM

Pinnacle -4 -105 / -103.....

Good call so far guys....

vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/2/2013 3:00:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by luckyhands:

there is your one cent move at Pinnacle Vanzack..............yet I do not know what your motivation is to find out why people on Covers.com forum think the line will do against the Pinnacle line when 99% of the covers community cannot bet there. I know they are the largest in the world but that doesn't correlate as to why you want to know what people here think the line will do at that particular book. 

Come on dude.  This is a discussion about the line, not where people can bet.

In order to have this discussion - you have to have a baseline.  What do you suggest? 

My motivation is to have a discussion about the line move before the game.  It interests me greatly - and I learn from people here.  We arent solving the worlds problems here.  Jeesh.  Get over it.

budwiser PM budwiser
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Posted: 2/2/2013 3:03:23 PM
yeah maybe i can bring my line movement analysis here....

like i said, mgm made a major move today on the san fran ml, hitting -200 at one point, down to -195 now.  they went from a 20 cent spread to a 30 cent spread (all the other casinos have a 20 cent spread)

atlantis in reno is the place with the cheapest san fran ml at -170

all books are at -4 now.  nothing's at -4.5 or -3.5.

talking vegas here (not offshore)
luckyhands PM luckyhands
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Posted: 2/2/2013 3:06:05 PM
i would suggest using respected books that the majority of posters on this forum can and do use..........

those consist of: 5dimes, bookmaker, heritage

any others? 
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/2/2013 3:10:55 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by budwiser:

yeah maybe i can bring my line movement analysis here....

like i said, mgm made a major move today on the san fran ml, hitting -200 at one point, down to -195 now.  they went from a 20 cent spread to a 30 cent spread (all the other casinos have a 20 cent spread)

atlantis in reno is the place with the cheapest san fran ml at -170

all books are at -4 now.  nothing's at -4.5 or -3.5.

talking vegas here (not offshore)

Wow.  A 30 cent spread on a SB money line.  Vegas is so silly.

Keep us up to date Bud.  Lots of tourists in town betting the game?  How long until we hear the obligatory "XXXXXXX (insert famous persons name) has just bet 1 million on XXXXX"?

vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 2/2/2013 3:11:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by luckyhands:

i would suggest using respected books that the majority of posters on this forum can and do use..........

those consist of: 5dimes, bookmaker, heritage

any others? 

OK.  5Dimes has moved from -3.5 -108 to -3.5 -109.

That makes you happy?

budwiser PM budwiser
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Posted: 2/2/2013 3:12:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by luckyhands:

i would suggest using respected books that the majority of posters on this forum can and do use..........

those consist of: 5dimes, bookmaker, heritage

any others? 


for us customers, yeah....

heritage and 5dimes are at -3.5, bookmaker at -4

interestingly, bovada (bodog) is at -4, but they have the cheapest 9ers ml at -170 and worst ravens ml at +150

for those that understand what bovada's all about it could be a clue....
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