Super bowl line - going up or down?

Forum: NFL Betting Page 1 of 4  1 2 3 4  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Super bowl line - going up or down?
vanzack PM vanzack
Joined: Nov 2001
Posts: 52545
 
vanzack
Participation Meter
Legend
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:42:22 PM

Lets hear some theories.  Im always in the mood to speculate and try to make some money on the line swing.

I think there was a slight head fake towards SF recently in the line, but I think it will go towards Balt from here.  Right now SF is -109 / +101 (at pinny), but am guessing a reversal of that by gametime to Balt -110 / +102.

Anyone think the line will get off 3.5?  Any other speculation? 

PapaShango PM PapaShango
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 22979
 
PapaShango
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:48:20 PM
Think it will end at 3. Who do you like at 3.5 van?
Posted using a mobile device.
DaBestEver24 PM DaBestEver24
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 2486
 
DaBestEver24
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:48:28 PM
I think it will go to 4 by game time. If it goes to 3 then i think baltimore will cover. If it goes to 4 i think niners cover. 3.5 looks like a toss up but i still think niners cover. 
BIGfnPOO PM BIGfnPOO
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 15841
 
BIGfnPOO
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:49:54 PM
its  -4 here   3  -120  in  other books     back east and  i see some 3.5s
dimndimn PM dimndimn
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 5230
 
dimndimn
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:50:21 PM
Should go to -4, if not -4.5 as the late west coast money comes in on the weekend.
vanzack PM vanzack
Joined: Nov 2001
Posts: 52545
 
vanzack
Participation Meter
Legend
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:52:45 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Think it will end at 3. Who do you like at 3.5 van?

Gun to my head....  I take Balt at 3.5.

I thought (and still think) it is a dead 3 point line - so at 3.5 it might be worth a small bet for me - especially at +101 or so.

But I dont love it either way.  I do think that the extra week definitely favors Balt in prep for Kapernick.  That spread option shouldnt be a problem - and they will make him throw more.  I like that position with the Ravens - if he beats us in the air and makes the throws - so be it - but I am going to MAKE him make the throws.

If that happens, Balt is the side I would want to be on.

vanzack PM vanzack
Joined: Nov 2001
Posts: 52545
 
vanzack
Participation Meter
Legend
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:53:58 PM

I would prefer to keep the discussion apples to apples -  so lets use the pinnacle line as the source line.

I realize everyone will have a book that is on possibly different numbers, or a local on 4.5 or something - but will the real source line (pinnacle) move?

So far, 2-1 say move to SF.

budwiser PM budwiser
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 7882
 
budwiser
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 2/1/2013 2:05:32 PM
I think it pretty much stays where it is, slight move to 4

There's no way it gets to 3.  There would be an instant flood of SF $.
dimndimn PM dimndimn
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 5230
 
dimndimn
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 2/1/2013 2:28:11 PM
Historically, 80% of all bets will come in the last 48 hours and that should be on SF.  If you're going to bet Baltimore I think it can only help you to wait. 

Kaepernick throwing instead of running only benefits the 49ers I think.  His arm accuracy and ability to throw on the move is highly overshadowed by his running.  His true strength is his arm, not his legs.


vanzack PM vanzack
Joined: Nov 2001
Posts: 52545
 
vanzack
Participation Meter
Legend
Posted: 2/1/2013 3:07:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dimndimn:

Historically, 80% of all bets will come in the last 48 hours and that should be on SF.  If you're going to bet Baltimore I think it can only help you to wait. 

Kaepernick throwing instead of running only benefits the 49ers I think.  His arm accuracy and ability to throw on the move is highly overshadowed by his running.  His true strength is his arm, not his legs.


You might be right....

But 8 weeks ago he was on the bench.  So make him prove it in the biggest pressure game on the planet.

I would take my chances on that one.

Michfan15 PM Michfan15
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 10984
 
Michfan15
Participation Meter
All-Star
Posted: 2/1/2013 3:34:59 PM
line will stay at 3.5 but the ml for the ravens will come down imo
luckyhands PM luckyhands
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 244
 
luckyhands
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 2/1/2013 3:36:18 PM
Why do you only want to discuss Pinnacle's lines? Is BookMaker and 5Dimes not a large enough book/pool of bettors that would be legitimate enough to go off of? BookMaker is sitting at +4 right now. 
luckyhands PM luckyhands
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 244
 
luckyhands
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 2/1/2013 3:39:29 PM
I do not see this move as a head fake. I think the uptick in 49er money was real and any swing back to Baltimore is because much of the gambling world is in love with the dog this year. I am not doubting your reasoning or insight into why you think Baltimore may be a good wager, just my two cents into what the general consensus might be out there in my humble opinion. 

If you've looked around here the past 10 days, you for sure have seen the insane amount of love for the Ravens on this board. 
Bmore PM Bmore
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 229
 
Bmore
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 2/1/2013 3:55:52 PM

If anything this line will go to SF-3 but i think it might hold steady at 3.5 but the price for that might change

I agree with your exact thoughts on Kap and i used the same reasoning as to why i backed ATL last week

If Balt buys into playing disciplined TEAM defense and keep there integrity when rushing the QB i.e not getting out of there rush lanes and keeping Kap in the pocket i will take my chances with him in the pocket making throws with the best saftey to ever play the game lurking back there

BTW i am a cowboy fan not a raven fan despite my username and me living in bmore my whole life. GL all

SarasotaSlim PM SarasotaSlim
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 24334
 
SarasotaSlim
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Posted: 2/1/2013 4:23:08 PM
LVH moved the line to -4    2hrs ago..........
HateChalk PM HateChalk
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 263
 
HateChalk
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 2/1/2013 4:28:21 PM

I think late money just about always comes in on the favorite. I think it stays at 3.5, but at -120.

luckyhands PM luckyhands
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 244
 
luckyhands
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 2/1/2013 4:39:15 PM
i say it is at -4 RIGHT NOW in a number of places......alot of them
vanzack PM vanzack
Joined: Nov 2001
Posts: 52545
 
vanzack
Participation Meter
Legend
Posted: 2/1/2013 4:49:34 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by luckyhands:

Why do you only want to discuss Pinnacle's lines? Is BookMaker and 5Dimes not a large enough book/pool of bettors that would be legitimate enough to go off of? BookMaker is sitting at +4 right now. 

I see from your multiple posts about it, that you are interested in pointing out that the line is different at other places.

In order to show real movement, you have to have a baseline.  I chose Pinnacle simply because it is the biggest sportsbook in the world, and is the source of most line moves.

So lets stick with Pinnacle for the purposes of showing relative movement from a fixed point - in this case the SF -3.5 -109 line that was established in this thread at 1:42 EST Friday.

The line has not moved since then.

I assume by your posts, you are saying that the line WILL move and it will move up to -4 because there are several other places that you know about that are already there.

Fair enough, point taken.  It is interesting that it is somewhat split in this thread so far.  Keep the opinions coming.  As usual, I am more interested in line movement leading up to the game than the actual game itself.

Crusher13 PM Crusher13
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 4333
 
Crusher13
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/1/2013 4:55:51 PM
Hey VAN, gotta think it'll be mostly 49er money pouring in over the weekend with a -4 the final number. Attractive either way,(sf ML or +4) gotta think there'll be some delicious props... easier pickings than these 2 sides, Game could easily fall SF 3 pt win

How bout you? Leans on props? The total? I could see an absolute defensive slugfest too since coaches are brothers who think similarly    
chillinmcm PM chillinmcm
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4316
 
chillinmcm
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/1/2013 4:57:46 PM
I'd say it'll stay at 4 till sunday and close at 3.5. I locked in right after the Balt/pats game and got +4.5 for plus money pretty happy with that. 
dimndimn PM dimndimn
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 5230
 
dimndimn
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 2/1/2013 4:58:34 PM
vanzack - what do you make of the initial opening line movements?  It looks like it shot up from 3.5 to as high as 5 and O/U came down from 49.5 to 47.5 - I can't really grasp the reasoning behind all of this movement.
kbrod66 PM kbrod66
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 411
 
kbrod66
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 2/1/2013 5:12:43 PM
its rolling in now on the winning 49ers
glyde69 PM glyde69
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 6748
 
glyde69
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 2/1/2013 5:49:07 PM
Think line goes up to -4/-4.5 by game time.

Just my gut feeling from 20 years of experience betting.
Posted using a mobile device.
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 38046
 
DoubleUp4Life
Participation Meter
Legend
Posted: 2/1/2013 5:57:56 PM
The wrong team is favored IMNHO 

that being said I could see the line move to -4 ... should be lots of chalk bettors coming
Europa PM Europa
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 35441
 
Europa
Participation Meter
Legend
Posted: 2/1/2013 6:02:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

Think line goes up to -4/-4.5 by game time.

Just my gut feeling from 20 years of experience betting.

Who do you like, glyde?  
Forum: NFL Betting Page 1 of 4  1 2 3 4  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.