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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: DON JUAN makes his legendary SUPERBOWL PICK, record 11-1
don juan
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don juan
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#26
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:15:34 PM
Thanks Mr Dish, hope to see you again next year.  I watch a lot of football I'm a real football fanatic, but don't post much anymore because it is so bombarded with posts.
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#27
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:15:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by don juan:

Indeed, most of my picks where uinderdogs.


Well Good Luck Don Juan 


I do respect my elders,   I Believe you have a great record just not sure about the 11-1 (When Just in the last 2-3 yrs I remember your 1 loss)

But either Way   may the angels be on our side.....
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#28
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:26:52 PM
good breakdown, good pick!


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#29
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:27:34 PM
Great writeup juan, even better record.  Unfortunetly you're sitting on a losing ticket.  You're backing a essentially a rookie qb against one of the best defenses of the past 10 yrs.  i know, their stats arent that great this yr, but they are healthy now, look at the playoffs.  They're back.  There's still time to reverse your course.
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#30
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:32:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CC12:

Good Stuff Don

few points:

- There has been 6 games out of the last 11 Super Bowls played where the final score difference was 4 pts or less.. I can name them but u can also prob just look it up easily to confirm.


-
I do respect CK's fast legs, strong arm, and his intelligence. A solid player all around. Definitely a wild card in this biggest football stage.

But has he really been tested against a solid defense ? Out of nine games he started, only two games were against a 'good' defense.. the Rams and the Seahawks. (yes, i said Rams have a good defense ) And the Niners lost both games. I am not trying to take away anything from him.. just pointing out the games where Niners struggled and did not look so invincible.

still.. the kid is impressive.



Wasn't his first career start against Chicago, arguably the best defense in the league at the time?  On pace to shatter the single season record for pick-6's?  Yeah, Kaepernick absolutely shredded them, and threw no picks.

Everyone talks about how shitty GB defense is but in reality, their defense is pretty good.  Why did it look so bad in the playoffs? Kaepernick is that much better.  Stop making the excuse that GB is a bad defense, because it's not.  Give credit to Kap where it's due.  GB had the #11 defense (Total Yards, Pass Yards, Pts per game), ranked above STL to end the season.  Where was Baltimore? #12 defense.
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#31
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:35:37 PM
Don Juan,
You talk out all that sf backers could not. Strongly agree with your write up. Same side here. BOL
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#32
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:36:41 PM
#12 defense?  Keep relying on regular season stats to handicap the ravens and see where it gets you. 
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#33
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:40:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dimndimn:


Wasn't his first career start against Chicago, arguably the best defense in the league at the time?  On pace to shatter the single season record for pick-6's?  Yeah, Kaepernick absolutely shredded them, and threw no picks.

Everyone talks about how shitty GB defense is but in reality, their defense is pretty good.  Why did it look so bad in the playoffs? Kaepernick is that much better.  Stop making the excuse that GB is a bad defense, because it's not.  Give credit to Kap where it's due.  GB had the #11 defense (Total Yards, Pass Yards, Pts per game), ranked above STL to end the season.  Where was Baltimore? #12 defense.
 
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#34
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:22:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by don juan:

Thank you all for the kind words..sincerely.

Scarpotch..Well the over is 9-1 with Kappy at QB but two good defenses. Maybe it will hover around the total. The total opened at 52.5 now down to 47.5. I think it depends on the turnovers. I can't put my finger on that, I just feel better giving the odds because I think the Kid Kappy has something special this year.

 

Name where this line opened at 52.5.

 

It most certainly did not.

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#35
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:28:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

 

Name where this line opened at 52.5.

 

It most certainly did not.


Heritage opened at 53.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/offshore/line-movement/ravens-@-49ers.cfm/date/2-03-13/time/1830
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#36
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:35:54 PM
Nice write-up & agree with your pick DJ. Like Kaepernick to have another solid & well-balanced game and with the edge to SF in trenches, gotta like SF to cover. The biggest concern I have about Balty is Boldin & Smith going up for big-time grabs & I expect Flacco to accurately give 'em those chances once they have to put it in his hands or if they are aggressive throwin the ball from the start which they should be. GL & let's get the $$ - am also playin a 6.5pt teaser with SF +3/over 41. Worst case scenario, don't see the Ravens winning by more than 3 
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#37
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:44:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dimndimn:


Wasn't his first career start against Chicago, arguably the best defense in the league at the time?  On pace to shatter the single season record for pick-6's?  Yeah, Kaepernick absolutely shredded them, and threw no picks.

Everyone talks about how shitty GB defense is but in reality, their defense is pretty good.  Why did it look so bad in the playoffs? Kaepernick is that much better.  Stop making the excuse that GB is a bad defense, because it's not.  Give credit to Kap where it's due.  GB had the #11 defense (Total Yards, Pass Yards, Pts per game), ranked above STL to end the season.  Where was Baltimore? #12 defense.

Granted Chicago had a perceivablly good D at the time.. But that was the same game where A Smith had 5.5 sacks against 3-and- out Campbell at the helm. And The bears did not look ready for CK.
Still, CK was impressive. 

But soon as u said GB had a pretty good defense, you lost all credibility. More so when u kept talking about regular season rankings.. 

Good luck to u anyways.


Don, i am lil disappointed u won't share the SB game u lost ATS.. Sure it's the past..but what's there to hide ? After all 11-1 is still very impressive, no?
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#38
Posted: 2/1/2013 12:06:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by don juan:

Secondly, The 49ers didn't much care about the second game at Seattle, it was a chance to rest their player, they had already beaten Seattle once even without the Kid. All teams rest players at the end of a grueling season. Just ask Baltimore, they are famous for that.

As for the Rams game two, (He came in and tied the first) He was coming off a huge win at N.O and  on the road again in his first start in a division game.


 

 

R u kidding me ?? SF had a chance to wrap up the division with a win over Seattle thus assuring a home field advantage in the playoff. If u think this was a game Jim Harbaugh didn't care about... Well that's as silly as your second paragraph making excuse for CK for losing to the Rams. Isn't CK now coming off a huge NFC championship game vs Atlanta and on the road again in his first start in a Super Bowl game ??
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#39
Posted: 2/1/2013 12:10:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CC12:

R u kidding me ?? SF had a chance to wrap up the division with a win over Seattle thus assuring a home field advantage in the playoff. If u think this was a game Jim Harbaugh didn't care about... Well that's as silly as your second paragraph making excuse for CK for losing to the Rams. Isn't CK now coming off a huge NFC championship game vs Atlanta and on the road again in his first start in a Super Bowl game ??
just stop. The niners didnt need that game. Classic letdown game. U ravens backers r going to lose money. Its kinda funny
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#40
Posted: 2/1/2013 12:11:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CC12:


Granted Chicago had a perceivablly good D at the time.. But that was the same game where A Smith had 5.5 sacks against 3-and- out Campbell at the helm. And The bears did not look ready for CK.
Still, CK was impressive. 

But soon as u said GB had a pretty good defense, you lost all credibility. More so when u kept talking about regular season rankings.. 

Good luck to u anyways.


Don, i am lil disappointed u won't share the SB game u lost ATS.. Sure it's the past..but what's there to hide ? After all 11-1 is still very impressive, no?



Well I know 1 loss was PITT VERSUS GB     HE PICKED PITT.

I figure he is    SInce at the time of that write up he was again 11-1 (cant recall exactly but pretty sure it was 11-1)


He said almost Mirror image of BEN ROTHLISBERGER 


But again anytime you have bandwagon type love 

you fade it 








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#41
Posted: 2/1/2013 12:13:39 AM
That game was seattles superbowl that was the most important game in their franchise history. Yes even more important then that superbowl they lost
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#42
Posted: 2/1/2013 12:30:29 AM

Mr Juan

So your record of 11-1 is ATS?

Or Straight UP?

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#43
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:15:31 AM
If Mr Juan is a true gentlemen, he would state his accurate record 11-1 or 10-2, SU and/or ATS.
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#44
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:29:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DaBestEver24:

That game was seattles superbowl that was the most important game in their franchise history. Yes even more important then that superbowl they lost

Not to mention Seattle has THE toughest homefield advantage in the entire NFL.  Yet the Niners also won at New Orleans, at New England in December, and at Atlanta.  3-1 against arguably 4 of the biggest home field advantages in the NFL aint bad...the Super Bowl will be like a home game comparatively speaking
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#45
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:32:07 AM


best wishes
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#46
Posted: 2/1/2013 1:35:03 AM
BTW
I have hit 6 in a row but missed the three before that. 
Stats are a funny thing, I am kind of expecting to miss, as I have been so good on the bowl.
That said, we are on the same side my friend, Go Niners. This is a heart bet for me, I love the Niners.
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#47
Posted: 2/1/2013 6:44:08 AM
Lock it in SF. Put the house on it. 
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#48
Posted: 2/1/2013 7:48:57 AM
Why only kap gpa there is 109 more players to go..dumb behind write up. College gpa lol.  The bills qb went to Harvard , now what?
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#49
Posted: 2/1/2013 7:50:10 AM
Hey don why did they lose to the rams...?
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#50
Posted: 2/1/2013 7:55:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by don juan:

Thanks Mr Dish, hope to see you again next year.  I watch a lot of football I'm a real football fanatic, but don't post much anymore because it is so bombarded with posts.
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