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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Prop bet with a soft line that should cash
dimndimn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
dimndimn
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#1
Posted: 1/31/2013 7:20:39 PM
Total rushing yards on first attempt by Anthony Dixon (No rush attempts under wins)

Over 1.5 yards -130

In the first 9 games of the season, Anthony Dixon had 7 games with zero attempts.  Since week 11 he has only had one game with zero attempts, and every single game with an attempt has gone over 1.5 yards.

@ATL 1 att, 4 yards (4Q)
GB 1 att, 2 yards (4Q) (TD run)
Wk 17 - 3 att, 6 yards (1st att= 4 yd, 4Q)
Wk 16 - 2 att, 8 yards (1st att=6 yd, 4Q)
Wk 15 - 2 att, 7 yards (1st att=5 yd, 3Q)
Wk 14 - 2 att, 9 yards (1st att=8 yd, 3Q)
Wk 13 - 0 att
Wk 12 - 1 att, 5 yards (4Q)
Wk 11 - 3 att, 11 yards (1st att=4 yd, 4Q)
Wk 10 - 0 att
Wk 9 - Bye
Wk 8 - 0 att
Wk 7 - 0 att
Wk 6 - 0 att
Wk 5 - 4 att, 21 yards (1st att=9 yd, 3Q)
Wk 4 - 4 att, 16 yards (1st att=7yd, 4Q)
Wk 3 - 0 att
Wk 2 - 0 att
Wk 1 - 0 att
2011 vs BAL - 0 att

Even though he had no rushing attempts last year vs BAL, I still think this holds a lot of value at only -130.  He is a good sized back that is averaging 3.7 YPC.  As noted, most of his carries come late in the game in 3rd or 4th quarter, but I am confident he will get a carry and this will cash.  
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dimndimn
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#2
Posted: 1/31/2013 7:26:06 PM
..credit to Steve Merril for bringing this to light.
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dangelo25 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 1/31/2013 9:10:53 PM
Well I would like to give some credit to you. Thanks
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dimndimn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
dimndimn
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#4
Posted: 2/1/2013 11:20:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dangelo25:

Well I would like to give some credit to you. Thanks

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Michfan15 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Michfan15
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#5
Posted: 2/1/2013 3:33:43 PM
ok he can easily not have a rush
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sungod95 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 2/1/2013 3:37:59 PM
Wouldnt it be a push if he doesn't get a attempt?since it says on his first attempt?
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dimndimn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
dimndimn
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#7
Posted: 2/1/2013 3:38:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

ok he can easily not have a rush

He can.  but eight of the previous nine weeks he has had a rush.  I'm betting he will get a rush late in the game and the price is more than right.
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dimndimn
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#8
Posted: 2/1/2013 3:39:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sungod95:

Wouldnt it be a push if he doesn't get a attempt?since it says on his first attempt?

The prop reads: Total rushing yards on first attempt by Anthony Dixon (No rush attempts under wins)
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dimndimn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#9
Posted: 2/2/2013 12:42:45 PM
Locking this one in, and taking 2nd half will be higher scoring than 1st half.  Waited too long but got that at -125
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Skipster
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#10
Posted: 2/2/2013 5:12:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dimndimn:

Locking this one in, and taking 2nd half will be higher scoring than 1st half.  Waited too long but got that at -125


this is a good one.  true in 8/10 SBs if not mistaken.
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#11
Posted: 2/2/2013 5:50:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Skipster:



this is a good one.  true in 8/10 SBs if not mistaken.

I only went back to 2000 and came up with 10 out of the last 13.  It hit consecutively from 2000-06 and even though it's only hit 3 of the last 6, it's good enough for me. 

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#12
Posted: 2/3/2013 1:51:25 PM
Highest scoring half - 2nd is now up to -150 
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