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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Super Bowl 47 : San Fran vs Baltimore
CoverLane send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#101
Posted: 1/25/2013 9:41:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Lead by example.


I figured you would be scared to agree.


I'll keep track of your record from here on out for you. 

1 unit per play, I won't even subtract juice

GOOD LUCK

You need it.








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TRAIN69
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#102
Posted: 1/25/2013 10:47:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:


I figured you would be scared to agree.


I'll keep track of your record from here on out for you. 

1 unit per play, I won't even subtract juice

GOOD LUCK

You need it.








I agreed. You havent posted anything yet.

So you arent gonna post your plays before the games start?

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#103
Posted: 1/26/2013 12:07:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I agreed. You havent posted anything yet.

So you arent gonna post your plays before the games start?


You didn't agree to anything. Your a clueless pedophile TRAIN.

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dilaudid8
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#104
Posted: 1/26/2013 12:54:11 AM
train is right about 1 thing 99.9999 percent of gambler's lose.I mean if your trying to make a living out of betting on sport's. it's just not going to happen 100 percent fact case closed. there is only a few in the world that can do it and that's all 
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#105
Posted: 1/26/2013 2:54:01 AM
Hey TRAIN, I am new to the forums but read through the thread here and I guess we have a good amount in common. I also like to take several plays and like to put in small parlays trying to hit it big. I get very streaky so it keeps me from losing a lot when I'm not picking well and as you mentioned gives me some really big wins for small risk when I'm on fire.

On to the SB pick.... I am also feeling very strongly about the Ravens ML. Although I did not have a very strong NFL season in comparison to past years I am 5 for 5 in super bowl picks since I started gambling while in college so I am looking to keep that streak going. For this game I was able to set up some 5 team parlays for a total risk of 100 to win 4500 finishing on Ravens ML.

Here are some of the reasons I give a big edge to Baltimore.



1. Advantage at QB goes to FLACCO hands down. He is playing out of this world right now and in elite company. Only other QBS to throw for 8+ TDS with no INTS in playoffs were Montana, Young, Aikman, Simms, & Brees. Although Kaepernick is getting all the hype, Flacco is playing out of this world. ******Flacco is also playing for a new contract******* what better motivation is there than money? That's why we are all on this forum to begin with. I believe the extra week to prepare will only help Ravens vs his dual threat ability.

2. The pass rush for the 49'ers has been AWFUL since Justin Smith injured his triceps. I understand that he is still playing, but Aldon Smith has ZERO 0 sacks in the last 5 games since this injury. Overall, the 49'ers only had a combined 2 sacks in their two playoff wins against predictable pass heavy teams. They should struggle even more against a balanced attack in Baltimore which further strengthens my Flacco belief.

3. Although both coaches are amazing, I feel John has the advantage as the older brother. I am the youngest of 3 brothers and I know that they possess a psychological edge over me in competition. ( I understand most might think this is stupid)

4. Ravens team has many more veterans and realize this is a last HOORAH for them. 49'ers are young and ignorant enough to think they will be there every year. I believe this is another mental edge/ intangible that can't be overlooked.

5. The Kicking game!!! Justin Tucker has been nothing short of amazing this year while David Akers has been down right awful. His shanked kick against Atlanta could have cost them big and I see him coming up short on a big kick in the SB. (afterall, he was a lifetime Eagle and they are cursed to never win the SB lol)

6. Finally, there was a very odd trend that I picked up about the last 3 superbowl winners, most will call it meaningless but I will not overlook it. The last 3 superbowl winners (NO, GB, NYG) All played @ Philadelphia against the Eagles in their Home opener of the season and also All Played and destroyed the Giants in their Week 16 games. Exception is Giants who beat Jets but they can't play themselves now can they?  So If you haven't guessed by now, the Ravens played the eagles in their home opener this year and also beat the garbage out of the Giants in their week 16 matchup....


So after that long explanation, please talk me off this pick people because anytime I am way too over confident in a pick, it bites me in the behind HUGE.
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#106
Posted: 1/26/2013 9:24:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Niners matchups perfectly? How so?

SF getting no respect? They are the favorite. They are supposed to win.

Niners are favored but 55% of the public is on the Ravens and taking the points. 

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#107
Posted: 1/26/2013 9:38:34 AM
Dont get me wrong.  Here in Vegas we appreciate all of the bets going on the Ravens. 
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#108
Posted: 1/26/2013 1:06:38 PM
Just some food for thought:  

1. Oft times, in games like this, intel can be of great importance. Note that both the O and D coordinators for Niners were on the Ravens staff as recent as 2009.  They know the personnel and base packages and tendencies on both sides of the ball.

2.  Teams that have kept Niner running game in check have used 4/3 base defense; even woeful Falcon run D did a good job of bottling up Kap and the edge (though Gore did his job and then some).  Ravens run a hybrid 3/4; you have to have fast OLB to contain in the same fashion as the 4/3, and that may be a problem for the Ravens.

3. Of the last 7 Ravens games, only 2 teams have had a pass D in the top 20 NFL teams, and the Ravens lost one of those games (to include playoff games).  Though raw, Kap is a very poised, mature QB completing 65+% of attempts.  Granted, Raven secondary is savvy, so this will be a good test for both.

Certainly there are points that favor Baltimore (experience, special teams, kicking game), but as noted above there are a few points to consider that may give you pause if you're a Ravens backer.

BOL
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#109
Posted: 1/26/2013 1:09:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by av8rg8r:

Just some food for thought:  

1. Oft times, in games like this, intel can be of great importance. Note that both the O and D coordinators for Niners were on the Ravens staff as recent as 2009.  They know the personnel and base packages and tendencies on both sides of the ball.

2.  Teams that have kept Niner running game in check have used 4/3 base defense; even woeful Falcon run D did a good job of bottling up Kap and the edge (though Gore did his job and then some).  Ravens run a hybrid 3/4; you have to have fast OLB to contain in the same fashion as the 4/3, and that may be a problem for the Ravens.

3. Of the last 7 Ravens games, only 2 teams have had a pass D in the top 20 NFL teams, and the Ravens lost one of those games (to include playoff games).  Though raw, Kap is a very poised, mature QB completing 65+% of attempts.  Granted, Raven secondary is savvy, so this will be a good test for both.

Certainly there are points that favor Baltimore (experience, special teams, kicking game), but as noted above there are a few points to consider that may give you pause if you're a Ravens backer.

BOL



insightful
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TRAIN69
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#110
Posted: 1/26/2013 1:16:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigUnit:

Niners are favored but 55% of the public is on the Ravens and taking the points. 



People who dont know what they are doing are the only ones worried about what everyone else is betting.
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TRAIN69
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#111
Posted: 1/26/2013 1:18:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:


You didn't agree to anything. Your a clueless pedophile TRAIN.



I guess since I f uck you up on this site verbally like I would a toddler that makes me a keyboard pedophile.

Can you keep a secret......
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#112
Posted: 1/26/2013 1:27:21 PM
great writeup train! i might just bet O22 for ravens but might just bet ravens+4. lets win this
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#113
Posted: 1/26/2013 2:00:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by gurtzniner4life:

My first time on here commenting....wats up people...Im a HUGE niners fan but one of the most middle of the road guys. Ever since the AFC championship and big bad NE and TB went down, seems like the Ravens are now unstoppable. Niners are getting no respect!!! Shouldve scored close to 90 points in two games....ATL and GB are no slouches!!! Its because PM and TB went down big bad Balty has all the intangables...the Niners match up perfectly to Balty which is bad news for Balty...no more finess football...and like someone commented before...all about the OL/DL battle which will be key..we have the best OL in football...its all about preparation and decision making....conservative john against cocky jim...38 24 niners....sorry

Typical Dumb 49er Homer posting under an assume alias name with No location of origin. Guessing from Northern Calif and probably a Stanford flunky. lol

Ravens will win this SB through the air with Flacco and his team of receivers. I will bet every prop bet OVER that involves a Raven receiver and Flacco putting up big numbers. Between Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith, they should have a field day beating that 49er secondary.

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#114
Posted: 1/26/2013 2:12:55 PM
totally  agree  balt+ the pts.....and a 3 team teaser  10ppts  over  pro bowl  game  balt  over  balt  s fran  a pretty sur win here.
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#115
Posted: 1/26/2013 2:21:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SportsM62:



Nobody seems to be addressing Kaeps running threat. If his receivers are covered and he breaks loose with a few good runs, the passing game will open up. This seems to be the niners MO. I am on the niners BIG. 

If Atlanta can keep him to two rushes at around 21 yards, then I will take my chances with a better Baltimore Defense.

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#116
Posted: 1/26/2013 2:25:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BigUnit:

Dont get me wrong.  Here in Vegas we appreciate all of the bets going on the Ravens. 

Another typical Vegas Wannabe. Vegas is a town made up of gambling losers. None of my friends that live there gamble much, because they don't want to lose there money, and none of them think they are friggin Jimmy The Greek. So I sent out $550, won $500 and am not going to pay for my Vegas trip over Memorial Day Weekend with this Super Bowl. And I will thank South Point and my boy for placing my bets.

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#117
Posted: 1/26/2013 2:26:37 PM
now*
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#118
Posted: 1/26/2013 3:50:58 PM
Bol
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#119
Posted: 1/26/2013 4:15:58 PM
LOL at the Vegas guy's comment. Dude you do realize that the "Public" are not the ones who are betting right now. The public tend to bet the SB much closer to game day, not two weeks prior. So it's actually 55% of sharp money on the Ravens I guess which might just explain that drop to 3.5

Guess we'll just have to wait and see until next sunday who's right, but if I was Torrey Smith Id be saying "GET YOUR POPCORN READY"
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#120
Posted: 1/26/2013 4:17:56 PM
To the point about the coordinators previously being on the staff of the Ravens, I wouldn't overthink that either. Sure they will know things about the Ravens, but you don't think Harbaugh will also know things about them including their tendencies, how they prepare, and how they like to attack teams etc.?
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#121
Posted: 1/26/2013 5:20:31 PM
train-

love your plays so far. how about a couple props to fade the SF kicking game:

balt makes longest fg -135
sf total made fgs u3 +120
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#122
Posted: 1/26/2013 5:23:53 PM
i also like the overs for boldin at 70.5 yards and 4.5 catches. i love the yards there, you know balt is going to be airing it out in the dome. sf has been exposed this post season by the deep pass.
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#123
Posted: 1/26/2013 5:52:01 PM
TRAIN...i'm saying the niners match up well because we are similar teams in every faction....i'm just thinking that balty has an older/slower linebacker core and r. lewis cannot cover v. davis....he's gonna be wide open all game!! Like I said too....the niners are not getting alot of respect...m. crabtree has similar numbers t. smith and i already mentioned v. davis. All the talk is about the niner secondary getting lit up....these two had 170rec..2500yds and 17tds!!! Jones and white are the best combo in the game...we made adjustments at half...how many catches did they have in the second half? My point here? watch a game once in awhile instead of reading boxscores!!!!
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#124
Posted: 1/26/2013 5:59:35 PM
And another thing...you guys talk about kaps running that wins games...he ran two times against atlanta and we still shoulda scored 40...(fumble at the goal line, missed chip shot fg) and it wasnt our passing game either. Its the fact that defenses have to second guess wether this guy will run or not...which anyone that has ever played football will know that is a HUGE mental advantage!!
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#125
Posted: 1/26/2013 7:23:25 PM
to Letsmakemoney:

Can you say "Charlie Strong"?  It may be college, but the principle's the same.  Having coordinators that know the inner workings of a program (that essentially hasn't changed since their departure) is invaluable.  Not saying it'll make the difference, but it certainly is an advantage
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