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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Super Bowl 47 : San Fran vs Baltimore
TRAIN69
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#1
Posted: 1/24/2013 3:26:27 AM
15-4-1 playoffs

Not gonna post a bunch of stats or trends for one reason: I dont know them. Dont care. Looking at trends and crap like that is futile. There is no model or "system" that can predict winners. As long as the pigskin bounces funny and people are allowed to make stupid decisions, games will always have too many variables to accurately calculate.

Covers has become a landfill of wanna be touts and high school kids. Thats fine with me, its a free site/country. I actually enjoy all the retards that think they can get to me by posting burning money bags and saying I suck.....Its pure comedy gold.



On to the big game.......



I only see 3 real advantages in the game, and they all favor Baltimore.

#1) Special teams .....Akers is a liability, Justin Tucker is not. Jacoby Jones is a pro bowl kick returner and Ted Ginn doesnt scare me in the least.

#2) San Frans secondary is suspect.....SF is 4th in the league, only giving up 200 passing yards per game. Pretty good.....on paper. Playing the Jets, Buffalo, AZ x2, STL x2, and Sea x 2 will skew your numbers (save the Russell Wilson is awesome speech). Boldin and Smith matchup very well, and with Rice being a huge threat out of the backfield, they should get more isolation. SFs pass rush has gone downhill as shown in the Falcons game.....Flacco has been very accurate lately and has been spreading the ball around.

#3) Experience . Flacco has been doing this for 5 years. Hes won almost as many playoff games as Kapernick has started in his career. Lewis and Reed will have that defense amped, no doubt.


Should be a good game. I think folks looking for a defensive struggle are gonna be disappointed. I think VD and Pitta will both have pretty big games. I really dont think Kap will brave enough to throw deep very often with Reed ball hawking, which is smart, but playing scared is never good. Gore and Lamichael James just arent the combo Rice/Pierce are.

Will have props when available. Flacco is your MVP. Should go 24-34 for about 300 yds and 3 tds. Will be interested to see a Rice receiving yds prop as I expect several screens and dump passes to curb the 49er rush attack.....


Baltimore 37 SF 23




Current bets:



Ravens +4.5 & O47 -120

Ravens ML +160

Ravens +11/O40.5 teaser 



The rest:


SF TT U26

Ravens win by (all very small):

 6-10 +800

11-15 +1100

16-20 +1600

21-25 +2500

SF punts more +175

1st quarter O9.5 -125

Balt wins both halves +450




Props to come.......



GL everyone

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#2
Posted: 1/24/2013 3:36:28 AM
Love the over gl  train
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Crashdavis565
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#3
Posted: 1/24/2013 3:41:41 AM
Train you are a heap good capper but you have left out the most important part of any game - The Trenches.
All NFL games are decided at the line, not in the backfields/special teams or at QB. I promise.
As recently as 6 weeks ago, Flacco and the Ravens were miserable, as their O Line was in shambles. The key to this game is McKinney who has solidified the edge and moved Blind side Oher back to his normal position where he is and has been much stronger.
The 49ers on the D side , when they got after Ryan in the second half, brought the dogs and really pressued him. Aldon Smith is a beast and can rush the passer at any time.
Smith vs Oher/McKinney will be the key and how well the Ravens can handle the read option. That is the game.
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#4
Posted: 1/24/2013 4:03:41 AM
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DaBestEver24
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#5
Posted: 1/24/2013 4:04:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

15-4-1 playoffs

Not gonna post a bunch of stats or trends for one reason: I dont know them. Dont care. Looking at trends and crap like that is futile. There is no model or "system" that can predict winners. As long as the pigskin bounces funny and people are allowed to make stupid decisions, games will always have too many variables to accurately calculate.

Covers has become a landfill of wanna be touts and high school kids. Thats fine with me, its a free site/country. I actually enjoy all the retards that think they can get to me by posting burning money bags and saying I suck.....Its pure comedy gold.



On to the big game.......



I only see 3 real advantages in the game, and they all favor Baltimore.

#1) Special teams .....Akers is a liability, Justin Tucker is not. Jacoby Jones is a pro bowl kick returner and Ted Ginn doesnt scare me in the least.

#2) San Frans secondary is suspect.....SF is 4th in the league, only giving up 200 passing yards per game. Pretty good.....on paper. Playing the Jets, Buffalo, AZ x2, STL x2, and Sea x 2 will skew your numbers (save the Russell Wilson is awesome speech). Boldin and Smith matchup very well, and with Rice being a huge threat out of the backfield, they should get more isolation. SFs pass rush has gone downhill as shown in the Falcons game.....Flacco has been very accurate lately and has been spreading the ball around.

#3) Experience . Flacco has been doing this for 5 years. Hes won almost as many playoff games as Kapernick has started in his career. Lewis and Reed will have that defense amped, no doubt.


Should be a good game. I think folks looking for a defensive struggle are gonna be disappointed. I think VD and Pitta will both have pretty big games. I really dont think Kap will brave enough to throw deep very often with Reed ball hawking, which is smart, but playing scared is never good. Gore and Lamichael James just arent the combo Rice/Pierce are.

Will have props when available. Flacco is your MVP. Should go 24-34 for about 300 yds and 3 tds. Will be interested to see a Rice receiving yds prop as I expect several screens and dump passes to curb the 49er rush attack.....


Baltimore 37 SF 23




Current bets:



Ravens +4.5 & O47 -120

Ravens ML +160

Ravens +11/O40.5 teaser 



The rest:


SF TT U26

Ravens win by (all very small):

 6-10 +800

11-15 +1100

16-20 +1600

21-25 +2500

SF punts more +175

1st quarter O9.5 -125

Balt wins both halves +450




Props to come.......



GL everyone

very closed-minded writeup.
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#6
Posted: 1/24/2013 4:09:47 AM
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#7
Posted: 1/24/2013 6:19:45 AM
Train-WTF happened to this website? It's so different, yet still the same with all these wannabes. I love the Ravens in this game.

What about ravens D Line? IMO, they have better, more experience players with Ngata and Suggs and the Ravens D was hurt all year and now they have all their pieces, they are playing at a high level. Good luck buddy, I'm going LARGE I this game. Go big or go home.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#8
Posted: 1/24/2013 8:51:51 AM
I have bet the Ravens very large for this game 

Kap will crap 

Akers will ache lol 

Ravens Will win 


Good luck 
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#9
Posted: 1/24/2013 10:00:50 AM

Covers has become a landfill of wanna be touts and high school kids. Thats fine with me, its a free site/country. I actually enjoy all the retards that think they can get to me by posting burning money bags and saying I suck.....Its pure comedy gold.

 

This has gotten out of hand.  The stuff I have been reading is so ridiculous....

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#10
Posted: 1/24/2013 10:40:43 AM
This thread is pure comedy....

Notably leaving out punting when discussing special teams and dismissing ginn and not even mentioning James as a returner.

THEN saying Gore/James aren't te combo rice pierce are. That is comedy.

Posted using a mobile device.
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#11
Posted: 1/24/2013 10:47:34 AM
Agree 100% on throwing the Trends out the Window 

I Have known plenty of Trends only Bettors over the years , a very High % of them are broke all the time . The Other % are always chasing on the Next trend and eventually crap out  

It's all about Match ups .. Again agree 100% The Ravens have advantages all over the field .  

Love the Ravens Secondary *** Reed and Pollard will be all over the field . will be on both as Long shot MVP's

Special teams is a HUGE advantage for Baltimore .. 


Not Sure Kap will wanna be running too Much ... Ask Robert Griffin how fun it was to run into Haloti Ngata 

Amazing that they went into Denver and New England and won ..Look like a Team of Destiny 


IMNHO the Ravens should be laying a FG +
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#12
Posted: 1/24/2013 10:51:43 AM
love it train.  this line is a gift IMO.

GL!
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#13
Posted: 1/24/2013 10:53:10 AM
Sure Train and I have had are disagreements 

 
BUT anyone who has been doing this for along time and Making money Understands that Train knows what he is Doing ...


Spreading Money across the board on different Win Margins,Props,Parlays etc  is pure brilliance , WIN or LOSE...


Excited that WE are the Same Page .. have to go back and check the Threads , but I Believe we are 11-1-1 run (college+Pro) when doing so  


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#14
Posted: 1/24/2013 10:54:13 AM
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TRAIN69
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#15
Posted: 1/24/2013 11:19:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:



Its not a circus without the clowns.
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TRAIN69
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#16
Posted: 1/24/2013 11:20:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

Train you are a heap good capper but you have left out the most important part of any game - The Trenches.
All NFL games are decided at the line, not in the backfields/special teams or at QB. I promise.
As recently as 6 weeks ago, Flacco and the Ravens were miserable, as their O Line was in shambles. The key to this game is McKinney who has solidified the edge and moved Blind side Oher back to his normal position where he is and has been much stronger.
The 49ers on the D side , when they got after Ryan in the second half, brought the dogs and really pressued him. Aldon Smith is a beast and can rush the passer at any time.
Smith vs Oher/McKinney will be the key and how well the Ravens can handle the read option. That is the game.


I agree, games are won in the trenches. This is a fairly even matchup imo. I dont see either side having an advantage on off/def


crash
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TRAIN69
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#17
Posted: 1/24/2013 11:21:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DaBestEver24:

very closed-minded writeup.


Elaborate.
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TRAIN69
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#18
Posted: 1/24/2013 11:23:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NONEED4LUCK:

Train-WTF happened to this website? It's so different, yet still the same with all these wannabes. I love the Ravens in this game.

What about ravens D Line? IMO, they have better, more experience players with Ngata and Suggs and the Ravens D was hurt all year and now they have all their pieces, they are playing at a high level. Good luck buddy, I'm going LARGE I this game. Go big or go home.


Not sure what happened, but I think covers got more worried about policing the wrong parts of the site (cussing/links) than the quality of the members.


noneed
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TRAIN69
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#19
Posted: 1/24/2013 11:25:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

This thread is pure comedy....

Notably leaving out punting when discussing special teams and dismissing ginn and not even mentioning James as a returner.

THEN saying Gore/James aren't te combo rice pierce are. That is comedy.



SF does have a great punter. They will need him a lot.

I would take Rice/Pierce 100% of the time over grandpa & son.


Take the homer glasses off, they are foggy.
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TRAIN69
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#20
Posted: 1/24/2013 11:34:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Sure Train and I have had are disagreements 

 
BUT anyone who has been doing this for along time and Making money Understands that Train knows what he is Doing ...


Spreading Money across the board on different Win Margins,Props,Parlays etc  is pure brilliance , WIN or LOSE...


Excited that WE are the Same Page .. have to go back and check the Threads , but I Believe we are 11-1-1 run (college+Pro) when doing so  




I be the 1st one to say I'm not brilliant. I've come to terms with my gambling needs and have learned to control them. Ive built my bankroll up over a year and lost it in a day before. I've gone 0-10 before. Bad days. Then, I just went 27-5 over a weekend and 71-31 over a week and am at nearly 80% for this years playoffs. Ive hit a 1200-1 parlay and a few monster underdog round robins. I like to have fun with a chance to win big on a small bet. Sure I like action, but most of the clowns on this site seem to think parlays and exotic bets are for losers. I contend they are what keeps me from being a degenerate! Grinding it out with straight bets takes all the joy out of it, unless you are doing this for a living. Lets be honest 99.999% of people do not bet on sports for a living. When was the last time you got real excited about a winning bet? -110? Big deal. A chance to win 2,000-10,000 for a few bucks? I listening.
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#21
Posted: 1/24/2013 11:34:42 AM
I be *


I'll be
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#22
Posted: 1/24/2013 11:50:35 AM
I like it Train, thought you might also like the Ravens O 22 as well?
GL

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              Antilles
#23
Posted: 1/24/2013 11:54:31 AM
have always admired your style 
GL Train
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#24
Posted: 1/24/2013 11:57:13 AM
Ravens in a blowout uh ? I'm glad to see you and the entire forum on the Ravens. Good luck.
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TRAIN69
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#25
Posted: 1/24/2013 12:08:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tonyrome:

I like it Train, thought you might also like the Ravens O 22 as well?
GL



I do, somehow forgot to post it.


Add:

Balt TT O22

Flacco MVP +275 (was expecting +175)


This line is a joke. If the Ravens win it will be on Joes arm.
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