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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFC Championship 49ers @ Falcons
dgnowsf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WagerWeb.com |
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#1
Posted: 1/18/2013 4:19:14 AM
Before anything, let's take a look at the following. 

Falcons 25.1 points for at home
Falcons 18.8 points allowed at home

Points team averages on the road, followed by the points scored in their game against the Falcons.
Seahawks 22.1 28
Bucs 24.3 17
Giants 18.9 0
Saints 26.9 23
Cardinals 11.5 19
Cowboys 21 13
Raiders 15.3 20
Panthers 25.9 28
Broncos 27.6 21

21.5 points for on the road from the above teams

Points team gives up on the road, followed by the points given up in their game against the Falcons.
Seahawks 19.4 30
Bucs 27 17
Giants 21 34
Saints 31 23
Cardinals 25.3 23
Cowboys 22.3 19
Raiders 30.1 23
Panthers 22 30
Broncos 19.8 27

24.2 points allowed on the road from the above teams

Road Record / Overall Record
Seahawks 3-5 11-5
Bucs 4-4 7-9
Giants 3-5 9-7
Saints 3-5 7-9
Cardinals 1-7 5-11
Cowboys 4-4 8-8
Raiders 1-7 4-12
Panthers 4-4 7-9
Broncos 6-2 13-3

From the above teams
29-43 on the road
71-73 overall record
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#2
Posted: 1/18/2013 4:20:19 AM
49ers 24.9 points for on the road
49ers 20.3 points allowed on the road

Points team averages at home, followed by the points scored in their game against the 49ers.
Seahawks 30.4 42
Patriots 35.4 34
Rams 18.3 16
Saints 30.8 21
Cardinals 19.8 3
Jets 19 0
Vikings 26.3 24
Packers 28.6 22

26.1 points for at home from the above teams

Points team gives up at home, followed by the points given up in their game against the 49ers.
Seahawks 11.9 13
Patriots 22.8 41
Rams 24.4 13
Saints 25.8 31
Cardinals 19.4 24
Jets 28.5 34
Vikings 20.6 13
Packers 16.7 30

21.3 points allowed at home from the above teams

Home Record / Overall Record
Seahawks 8-0 11-5
Patriots 6-2 12-4
Rams 4-4 7-8-1
Saints 4-4 7-9
Cardinals 4-4 5-11
Jets 3-5 6-10
Vikings 7-1 10-6
Packers 7-1 11-5

From the above teams
43-21 at home 
69-54 overall record

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#3
Posted: 1/18/2013 4:21:06 AM
From this we can conclude that the 49ers have played better teams who also play well at home. Meanwhile, Falcons have played lesser competition who also struggle on the road. 

49ers have a clear advantage in points scored and allowed on the road when compared with 7 other teams the opponent has played against. 

49ers 24.9 points for on the road
49ers 20.3 points allowed on the road

26.1 points for at home
21.3 points allowed at home

49ers score 3.6 more and hold opponents to 5.8 less on average compared to the opponent's average numbers at home.

Falcons have a slight advantage at home when compared with the other 8 teams the opponent has faced.

Falcons 25.1 points for at home
Falcons 18.8 points allowed at home

21.5 points for on the road
24.2 points allowed on the road

Falcons score 0.9 more and hold opponents to 2.7 less on average compared to the opponent's average numbers on the road.

49ers are doing this against better overall teams and better home teams rather than the Falcons against lesser teams and worse on the road. 

49ers have lost to teams that can run the ball on them. Rams was the only exception due to an horrible turnover and miss FG which gave them the game. Besides Rams, 49ers lost to Seahawks, Vikings, and Giants who ran the ball on the 49ers pretty well. Falcons haven't been able to run the ball effectively and will be going against a very stout run defense. One dimensional offenses aren't very good against the 49ers defense. Packers twice, Saints, Lions, and etc. Patriots did well, but the score was 31-3 at one point before Brady became unstoppable until it really counted again.

Falcons are 8-1 at home, with the only loss being the last week of the season, I'd say undefeated. Let's say the Falcons didn't almost choke in the 4Q. Can you imagine how much love the Falcons would be getting from a public perspective after dominating a very hot Seahawks team who beat the 49ers handedly recently? Biggers news, Kap or Falcons dominating Seahawks? Pretty equal, but Falcons almost choked the game away and linemakers had to adjust from being a near pick to 49ers -3. Falcons are 8-1 at home, #1 seed who beat the Seahawks who routed the 49ers in public's view recently, but yet the set the line to +3 Falcons because they need more action on the home team? With a key number, usually numbers don't move as books resort to juicing the 3 no mater the action but it moved to a key number of 3.5, then 4, 4.5, before settling back at 3.5/4 at most books. Meanwhile, the over/under is being hammered on the over, but it has stayed the same 

49ers are the better team. Many are trying to fade the public by taking the Falcons, some just like the Falcons. Both 49er and Falcon backers are loving the over on the game. 49ers/Falcons is getting 65/35 on the Spread/ML/Exotics, but Over/Under is getting 85/15 love. I would expect the numbers to drop near 60/40 and 75/25 or so by Sunday. Everything went over last week after a week of unders.

Why is a 8-1 team at home, #1 seed who just beat a hot Seahawks team who just beat the 49ers handedly more than a FG underdogs? Makes no sense until you break down the teams. This is a mismatch everywhere in the 49ers favor which is why it will result in favorite/under. 

49ERS
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#4
Posted: 1/18/2013 4:24:18 AM
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#5
Posted: 1/18/2013 4:30:05 AM
Falcons are the NFC version of the Texans
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#6
Posted: 1/18/2013 11:14:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dgnowsf:

Falcons are the NFC version of the Texans


BEST DESCRIPTION I HAVE READ
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#7
Posted: 1/18/2013 11:20:42 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by yourdaddyspice:



BEST DESCRIPTION I HAVE READ

Ryan,White,Jones,Gonzo > Schaub,Johnson,Walter,Daniels.

Just a bit different if you ask me.

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#8
Posted: 1/18/2013 12:05:49 PM
You have a very powerful argument based on your numbers and line movement strategies.  You are probably correct although I will still be on Atlanta with some points hoping that the stage will be overwhelming for Kap and Matt R. Can perform adequately for the win.  With the lack of run game and poor pass rush it is what it is.  Looks like a rout on paper like Alabama and ND.  I am hoping home crowd will be loud enough and confusing enough for a young qb.  Maybe he will rise to the occasion, maybe not.  Maybe Turner and J.R. can run enough to keep SF defense honest.  I can not say why I like either team as I do not have any connection to both.  All I can say is I believe Atlanta will win.  I have been wrong many times so maybe again.  But it is cool.  I am not a guru, just like to read  over other posters and thoughts like yours.  You have a very objective purpose and slant and I wish all of us good luck!
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#9
Posted: 1/18/2013 12:34:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dgnowsf:

Falcons are the NFC version of the Texans


Falcons are this years version of the 2009 Saints.
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#10
Posted: 1/18/2013 6:41:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FadeOnly:



Falcons are this years version of the 2009 Saints.

but they were favored at home against the vikings? 

then again. i just look at your name and that's all i need to know. thanks. 
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#11
Posted: 1/18/2013 6:43:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Glmm:

Ryan,White,Jones,Gonzo > Schaub,Johnson,Walter,Daniels.

Just a bit different if you ask me.


did you really say that? don't forget to compare the defense too but obviously you have no idea what i meant. you must not watch a lot of football or not have much football knowledge
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#12
Posted: 1/18/2013 6:45:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

You have a very powerful argument based on your numbers and line movement strategies.  You are probably correct although I will still be on Atlanta with some points hoping that the stage will be overwhelming for Kap and Matt R. Can perform adequately for the win.  With the lack of run game and poor pass rush it is what it is.  Looks like a rout on paper like Alabama and ND.  I am hoping home crowd will be loud enough and confusing enough for a young qb.  Maybe he will rise to the occasion, maybe not.  Maybe Turner and J.R. can run enough to keep SF defense honest.  I can not say why I like either team as I do not have any connection to both.  All I can say is I believe Atlanta will win.  I have been wrong many times so maybe again.  But it is cool.  I am not a guru, just like to read  over other posters and thoughts like yours.  You have a very objective purpose and slant and I wish all of us good luck!

at least you're not coming up with some crazy explanation on why atl is going to cover 
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#13
Posted: 1/18/2013 7:11:32 PM
Why is a 8-1 team at home, #1 seed who just beat a hot Seahawks team who just beat the 49ers handedly more than a FG underdogs? Makes no sense until you break down the teams. This is a mismatch everywhere in the 49ers favor which is why it will result in favorite/under.

WHY? Easy, because 49ers are a PUBLIC TEAM, thats why ... does anyone even care about the Falcons??? I dont think so ... Kaepernick in his first playoff road game as a FAVORITE??? I will pay to see it ... give me the AWFUL FALCONS ...
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#14
Posted: 1/18/2013 11:09:42 PM
So your basing your bet off 49ers being a public team? 65% 49ers, 35% Falcons. Normal rate for favorites is about 60%. Should creep closer to that number as game time approaches. Kaep in his first playoff road game, don't you think line makers know that? How did Russell Wilson do in two road games? He covered both times if I recall correctly.

Public team? And Falcons aren't? Do some research. http://contests.covers.com/handicapping/public-money.aspx?page=/pick-data/PublicMoney/NFL-publicmoney.html
Posted using a mobile device.
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#15
Posted: 1/19/2013 9:37:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FadeOnly:



Falcons are this years version of the 2009 Saints.


 He includes points for and points against in many of those games where the offense and/or defense were not even on the filed when the score took place. How can you  charge points to a defense when they weren't  even on the field: ie pick 6 , KO/PR for a TD and give points to an offense ie KO/PR for TD , and then come up with an average and true indication of PF and  PA.  Funny sh*t. Gee, lets just grab the sports section of the local newspaper and handicap the games. 

Maybe we should just look at his name and visit his space and say:

HOMER


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#16
Posted: 1/20/2013 6:09:26 PM
homer? i called vikings and seahawks beating the 49ers lmao

learn to cap. nice win with 4.5 but that doesn't change that you can't loser lozerguy
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#17
Posted: 1/20/2013 7:40:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dgnowsf:

homer? i called vikings and seahawks beating the 49ers lmao

learn to cap. nice win with 4.5 but that doesn't change that you can't loser lozerguy

Wow! so you've been a member since Aug 2011 and your 3-0. That's 100 % . You're the best capper on here.

  Go to the Gamblers Book Club and read up about the big picture, marathons and sprints. Been playing with house money for years kid. Never seen you around here in 2005-2010.  Parents finally bought you a PC for your bedroom down in the basement. 

dognowsucksd*ck
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#18
Posted: 1/20/2013 8:18:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Wizerguy:


Wow! so you've been a member since Aug 2011 and your 3-0. That's 100 % . You're the best capper on here.

  Go to the Gamblers Book Club and read up about the big picture, marathons and sprints. Been playing with house money for years kid. Never seen you around here in 2005-2010.  Parents finally bought you a PC for your bedroom down in the basement. 

dognowsucksd*ck

spoken like a true loser. sorry i don't spend all day here like you.

someone claiming to bet 50 units on one game. someone butthurt because he brought up true points and couldn't calculate that for packers. when pointed out, says it was a home game and is irrelavent 

whatever makes you able to sleep at night kiddo

enjoy your lucky win with 4.5, nice loss on atl straight up. although you didn't post it, we all know you hit the ml

go thank akers for that cash. better stop while luck is on your side.



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#19
Posted: 1/20/2013 9:44:14 PM
I love spending all day here. I'm retired and living the good life $$..I can do what I please. You have to get up and go to school Monday.

I also sleep well at night ..my wife makes sure of that. 



Atlanta +4.5    (50)

Atlanta ML     ( 10 )

Baltimore +9     (50)

Baltimore +16_ Atlanta +11.5   ( 50)


What a day.....>   +140 units. 



When you graduate from High school,  make sure you run your own business...its a great life. 


 
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#20
Posted: 1/20/2013 9:47:31 PM
stop kidding yourself kiddo. whatever lie helps you sleep at night


Thats correct son, you can't fool everyone. However, the oddsmakers magician who put this line out has many fooled in this one my friend and it will go down as the biggest folly of the playoffs. SF lost the N.Orleans game 17-20 and the NE game 27-34 and the oddsmakers magician new this with his smoke and mirrors dynamic. 

Perception vs Reality  .

Atlanta wins this game and wins it BIG 


LOL



maybe you should come back to reality. we all know you have no wife. no kids. and live in your parents basement at the age of 46-50? sad.
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#21
Posted: 1/20/2013 9:50:11 PM
Oh...forgot ...Ravens pulled it off

Baltimore ML +275 (10U)   Made up for that Atlanta ML  
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#22
Posted: 1/20/2013 9:50:24 PM
later son
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#23
Posted: 1/20/2013 9:52:35 PM
....
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#24
Posted: 1/20/2013 9:53:11 PM
okay little boy
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#25
Posted: 1/20/2013 10:01:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Wizerguy:


Wow! so you've been a member since Aug 2011 and your 3-0. That's 100 % . You're the best capper on here.

  Go to the Gamblers Book Club and read up about the big picture, marathons and sprints. Been playing with house money for years kid. Never seen you around here in 2005-2010.  Parents finally bought you a PC for your bedroom down in the basement. 

dognowsucksd*ck


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