|From this we can conclude that the 49ers have played better teams who also play well at home. Meanwhile, Falcons have played lesser competition who also struggle on the road.
Posted: 1/18/2013 4:21:06 AM
49ers have a clear advantage in points scored and allowed on the road when compared with 7 other teams the opponent has played against.
49ers 24.9 points for on the road
49ers 20.3 points allowed on the road
26.1 points for at home
21.3 points allowed at home
49ers score 3.6 more and hold opponents to 5.8 less on average compared to the opponent's average numbers at home.
Falcons have a slight advantage at home when compared with the other 8 teams the opponent has faced.
Falcons 25.1 points for at home
Falcons 18.8 points allowed at home
21.5 points for on the road
24.2 points allowed on the road
Falcons score 0.9 more and hold opponents to 2.7 less on average compared to the opponent's average numbers on the road.
49ers are doing this against better overall teams and better home teams rather than the Falcons against lesser teams and worse on the road.
49ers have lost to teams that can run the ball on them. Rams was the only exception due to an horrible turnover and miss FG which gave them the game. Besides Rams, 49ers lost to Seahawks, Vikings, and Giants who ran the ball on the 49ers pretty well. Falcons haven't been able to run the ball effectively and will be going against a very stout run defense. One dimensional offenses aren't very good against the 49ers defense. Packers twice, Saints, Lions, and etc. Patriots did well, but the score was 31-3 at one point before Brady became unstoppable until it really counted again.
Falcons are 8-1 at home, with the only loss being the last week of the season, I'd say undefeated. Let's say the Falcons didn't almost choke in the 4Q. Can you imagine how much love the Falcons would be getting from a public perspective after dominating a very hot Seahawks team who beat the 49ers handedly recently? Biggers news, Kap or Falcons dominating Seahawks? Pretty equal, but Falcons almost choked the game away and linemakers had to adjust from being a near pick to 49ers -3. Falcons are 8-1 at home, #1 seed who beat the Seahawks who routed the 49ers in public's view recently, but yet the set the line to +3 Falcons because they need more action on the home team? With a key number, usually numbers don't move as books resort to juicing the 3 no mater the action but it moved to a key number of 3.5, then 4, 4.5, before settling back at 3.5/4 at most books. Meanwhile, the over/under is being hammered on the over, but it has stayed the same
49ers are the better team. Many are trying to fade the public by taking the Falcons, some just like the Falcons. Both 49er and Falcon backers are loving the over on the game. 49ers/Falcons is getting 65/35 on the Spread/ML/Exotics, but Over/Under is getting 85/15 love. I would expect the numbers to drop near 60/40 and 75/25 or so by Sunday. Everything went over last week after a week of unders.
Why is a 8-1 team at home, #1 seed who just beat a hot Seahawks team who just beat the 49ers handedly more than a FG underdogs? Makes no sense until you break down the teams. This is a mismatch everywhere in the 49ers favor which is why it will result in favorite/under.