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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: It's PlayoFf Time........ And The Most Undervalued Team Is........................
theclaw
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#26
Posted: 1/5/2013 9:13:40 AM

FO does some nice research, however their DVOA is very weak, my info has eaten DVOA up for lunch.

A couple years back in 2010 they had the Pats as one of the best teams in the DVOA era ever,  when I first saw that I damn-near laughed myself to death.

And that is on the site now because now they have Seattle one of the best and they breakdown the other teams who finished high, like the 2010 Pats.

Pats were a very weak no.1 seed, and both my power ratings and value ratings had the Jets to cover and win out-right and of coarse they did.

That's 1 example, there are plenty more and I suspect I'll add another notch to my belt this week over DVOA.

 

My method is not as much about blow-out wins, but blow-outs in a stat, yea Seattle has blow-out wins but not in the stats like the Redskins have.

For  and they haven't won each stat as consistent week in week out like the Skins. example, in the 49ers 42-13 win, Seattle won the ave gain per pass by only .8, that is not indicative of a 29 pt blow-out, it simply is not. Seattle losses alot of value because they were not as good as the final score indicates.

In the Redskins 7 pt win over Philly they won the ave gain per pass battle by 1.3 yds, a much bigger more dominating performance which indicateds a larger win then 7 pts, the Redskins are just flat-out better than the scores in their games make them look and this is why the are the most undervalued team in the league. Here the Redskins gain alot of value because they are much, much better than the final score indicates.

The majority of people are looking only at Seattle's 42-13 final score and the Redskins 27-20 final score but the method is looking at value and the Redskins win that by a country mile in those  games, this is why FO rates Seattle high because of that42-13 score and such similar dominance what my method is telling us is that dominating 42-13 score was NOT DESERVING OR EARNED BY SEATTLE it was more luck. 

In that game alone Seattle lost 10.71 pts of value while the Redskins earned 8.25 pts of value a whopping 18.96 difference in value pts.

So while you and FO is looking at that final score  I'm looking at the value earned.

And that was one of the reasons I was very confident that the Rams would cover VS Seattle in week 17 because teams coming off games with big negatives in value tend to not cover the next week, great stats or noT.

Teams can not continue to score more than their play-on the field is worth, because that is mostly luck..

The value method tells us which team has more value, in other words which teams are playing better or worse than the final scores in their games,  and the Redskins play-on the field is far greater than the final scores in their games would indicate and this gives us value in the point spread........................................................................

 

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#27
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:15:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

FO does some nice research, however their DVOA is very weak, my info has eaten DVOA up for lunch.

OK.

A couple years back in 2010 they had the Pats as one of the best teams in the DVOA era ever,  when I first saw that I damn-near laughed myself to death.

Well, it woud be helpful for you to mention that of their top 9 DVOA teams since 1991, 8 have either made the conference championship game or the Super Bowl. You chose to only reference the 2010 Pats---the only team of the 9 that did not reach this goal. Selective presentation of data, my friend.

DVOA correctly called deep playoff runs for the 1991 Skins(won SB), 1992 Cowboys(won SB), 1995 49ers(won SB), 1996 Packers(won SB), 2004 Steelers(lost to NE in AFC championship), 2004 Pats(won SB), 2007 Pats(lost SB) and 2010 Steelers(lost SB).

This year DVOA has Denver, NE and Seattle as top 12 teams of all-time. It's likely that at least one of these teams will reach and possibly win the SB. 

And that is on the site now because now they have Seattle one of the best and they breakdown the other teams who finished high, like the 2010 Pats.

Pats were a very weak no.1 seed, and both my power ratings and value ratings had the Jets to cover and win out-right and of coarse they did.

Good for you. Of course.

That's 1 example, there are plenty more and I suspect I'll add another notch to my belt this week over DVOA.

Ok.

 

My method is not as much about blow-out wins, but blow-outs in a stat, yea Seattle has blow-out wins but not in the stats like the Redskins have.

For  and they haven't won each stat as consistent week in week out like the Skins. example, in the 49ers 42-13 win, Seattle won the ave gain per pass by only .8, that is not indicative of a 29 pt blow-out, it simply is not. Seattle losses alot of value because they were not as good as the final score indicates.

Actually that is not correct. Seattle won by 1.3 yards per pass. It was 7.7 to 6.4

In the Redskins 7 pt win over Philly they won the ave gain per pass battle by 1.3 yds, a much bigger more dominating performance which indicateds a larger win then 7 pts, the Redskins are just flat-out better than the scores in their games make them look and this is why the are the most undervalued team in the league. Here the Redskins gain alot of value because they are much, much better than the final score indicates.

Actually, that's incorrect also. The Eagles were down by only 1.0, not 1.3. The final numbers were Washington 7.7 to Philly 6.7.

The majority of people are looking only at Seattle's 42-13 final score and the Redskins 27-20 final score but the method is looking at value and the Redskins win that by a country mile in those  games, this is why FO rates Seattle high because of that42-13 score and such similar dominance what my method is telling us is that dominating 42-13 score was NOT DESERVING OR EARNED BY SEATTLE it was more luck. 

In that game alone Seattle lost 10.71 pts of value while the Redskins earned 8.25 pts of value a whopping 18.96 difference in value pts.

So while you and FO is looking at that final score  I'm looking at the value earned.

I am not just looking at the final score, that is rather presumptuous. I also watched the game, did you? The Redskins secondary fell asleep twice at the end. First, Maclin was wide open for a TD, but Foles underthrew him. Secondly, in his first game with the Eagles, TE  E. Moore dropped a well thrown TD pass with about 10 seconds left in the contest. You want to talk about luck? The Skins were the recipients of luck that day, not Seattle.

This game could very well have(and probably should have)gone to OT, regardless of the stats which say this was a more dominant performance than Seattle's win. 

Beating a Foles led Eagles team without its top receiver, a hobbled RB and a defense with a new coordinator and new FS is hardly reason to proclaim dominance.

I'll take a solid win over a much better SF team. You seem to discount their special teams play as aberrant(a blocked FG leading to a TD) and overall stellar defensive play as "unearned". Simply because traditional "move the chains" football was not used to obtain victory does not, in any way, indicate that the team was somehow undeserving. Far from it.

And that was one of the reasons I was very confident that the Rams would cover VS Seattle in week 17 because teams coming off games with big negatives in value tend to not cover the next week, great stats or noT.

Teams can not continue to score more than their play-on the field is worth, because that is mostly luck..

The value method tells us which team has more value, in other words which teams are playing better or worse than the final scores in their games,  and the Redskins play-on the field is far greater than the final scores in their games would indicate and this gives us value in the point spread........................................................................

Quality of opponents and their defenses is also important. Did you know that Seattle played 9 games against top 10 DVOA ranked defenses? Washington played only 2. In fact 11 of their games were played against the bottom half of the league in DVOA defense. A significant difference, no matter how you choose to slice it or ignore it. 

 


Good debate and good luck theclaw.

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#28
Posted: 1/5/2013 10:32:09 AM
By the way, remember your Super Bowl Fraud post from 2 years ago? Where do Washington and Seattle fit into this?





Hey guys, what's happening ??

Let's take a look at some teams getting alot of love who maybe SB Frauds.

As we all know................ IT'S DEFENSE THAT WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS !!!!

Let's look at some common denominators that teams who win SB's have.

Since the league went to the 16 game schedule in 1978 there's been 31 SB Winners.

28 of 31 (90.3%)  SB winners finished 8th or better in scoring defense in the regular season

28 of 31 (90.3%)  SB winners gave-up 315 yards per game or fewer in the regular season

27 of 31 SB winners gave-up 5.05 yards per play or fewer in the regular season

Do we have any of the teams with the best records who don't qualify in any of these 3 key defensive stats ??

I posted this same info last season and warned everyone that both the Panthers and Colts were not playing on a SB winning level.

And remember, both teams were getting "big love" going into the postseason with the Colts being the hottest team coming in winning something like 10 straight.

The New Orleans Saints.............................................................................

finished 20th in scoring defense

gave-up 357.8 yards per game

gave-up 5.5 yards per play

To make matters even worse for the Saints, they're defense got 39 take-a-ways this season, getting that many take-a-ways meant they didn't have to stop they're opponents and force them to punt, when they weren't getting TO's they couldn't stop anybody.  

When you get to the postseason and advance you'll be meeting damn good teams who won't turn the ball over at such a high rate.

The one team that's getting a whole-lotta-love this postseason......................................................The San Diego Chargers, one of the "hottest" teams coming in this season .........

11th in scoring defense

gave-up 327 yards per game

gave-up 5.3 yards per play

And to make matters worse for Charger fans, they don't meet the minimum needed in team stats as well.

26 of 31 (83.9%)   SB winners out-gained they're opponents by 35 yards per game or more in the regular season

Chargers ............... 360.1 - 327 = a very mediocre 33.1 yards   

If you have plans to back either of these teams with a future's bet to win the SB, it's highly,highly likely you'll face the same major disappointment that the Panther and Colt backers faced last season.  

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#29
Posted: 1/7/2013 6:06:37 AM

************I looked up a few stats....only thing I didn't do was Scoring Defense**********

-315 Yards Or Less P/G
Denver 290.8
SF 294.4
SEA 306.2
Cincy 319.7
Hous 323.2
GB 336.8
Minn 350
Balt 350.9
ATL 365.6
NE 373.2
Indy 374.2
Skins 377.7

-5.05 Yds Per Play Or Less
Den 4.6
SF 4.7
Cincy 4.9
SEA 5.1
Texans 5.1
Balt 5.2
Minn 5.2
GB 5.2
NE 5.7
Skins 5.9
ATL 5.9
Colts 6.0

- Out Gained Opp by 35 yards or more/per game
Den +107
SF +67
NE +54
Hous +48
SEA +44
ATL +26
GB  +22
Cincy +13
Skins +5
Balt +1
Colts -11
Minn -13

-Take Aways
NE 41 
ATL 31
SEA 31
Skins 31
Cincy 30
Hous 29
SF 25
Balt 25
Den 24
GB 23
Minn 22
Colts 15

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#30
Posted: 1/9/2013 10:27:17 PM
I can't find the Def. Scoring ranks...does this rank include ST scoring?
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#31
Posted: 1/9/2013 10:39:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

FO does some nice research, however their DVOA is very weak, my info has eaten DVOA up for lunch.

A couple years back in 2010 they had the Pats as one of the best teams in the DVOA era ever,  when I first saw that I damn-near laughed myself to death.

And that is on the site now because now they have Seattle one of the best and they breakdown the other teams who finished high, like the 2010 Pats.

Pats were a very weak no.1 seed, and both my power ratings and value ratings had the Jets to cover and win out-right and of coarse they did.

That's 1 example, there are plenty more and I suspect I'll add another notch to my belt this week over DVOA.

 

My method is not as much about blow-out wins, but blow-outs in a stat, yea Seattle has blow-out wins but not in the stats like the Redskins have.

For  and they haven't won each stat as consistent week in week out like the Skins. example, in the 49ers 42-13 win, Seattle won the ave gain per pass by only .8, that is not indicative of a 29 pt blow-out, it simply is not. Seattle losses alot of value because they were not as good as the final score indicates.

In the Redskins 7 pt win over Philly they won the ave gain per pass battle by 1.3 yds, a much bigger more dominating performance which indicateds a larger win then 7 pts, the Redskins are just flat-out better than the scores in their games make them look and this is why the are the most undervalued team in the league. Here the Redskins gain alot of value because they are much, much better than the final score indicates.

The majority of people are looking only at Seattle's 42-13 final score and the Redskins 27-20 final score but the method is looking at value and the Redskins win that by a country mile in those  games, this is why FO rates Seattle high because of that42-13 score and such similar dominance what my method is telling us is that dominating 42-13 score was NOT DESERVING OR EARNED BY SEATTLE it was more luck. 

In that game alone Seattle lost 10.71 pts of value while the Redskins earned 8.25 pts of value a whopping 18.96 difference in value pts.

So while you and FO is looking at that final score  I'm looking at the value earned.

And that was one of the reasons I was very confident that the Rams would cover VS Seattle in week 17 because teams coming off games with big negatives in value tend to not cover the next week, great stats or noT.

Teams can not continue to score more than their play-on the field is worth, because that is mostly luck..

The value method tells us which team has more value, in other words which teams are playing better or worse than the final scores in their games,  and the Redskins play-on the field is far greater than the final scores in their games would indicate and this gives us value in the point spread........................................................................

 


 How'd that work out for ya?
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#32
Posted: 1/10/2013 9:29:54 PM

Son-of-a-gun, RGIII was extremely limited in this game. 

   NFL Playoffs   --- 0-1, Lost 6 units 

Boy-oh-boy how I wish we could of seen how He and his Skins would of done if healthy, considering they had the largest lead any team had against Seattle this season and they lead for the overwelming majority of the game with their best player extremely limited.

I suspect the method would of been proven correct with a healthy RGIII.

But we'll never know for sure.......so on to next week..................I'm confident the method will  bounce back ..............................

Using the info posted in the OP.

Divisional Round...........................................

And the largest value mismatch is.......................................Seahawks over Falcons by 5 pts.

I'll wait it out to see where this spread is headed..............................

More to come................................................

 

 

 

 

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Posted: 1/10/2013 9:30:01 PM

Son-of-a-gun, RGIII was extremely limited in this game. 

   NFL Playoffs   --- 0-1, Lost 6 units 

Boy-oh-boy how I wish we could of seen how He and his Skins would of done if healthy, considering they had the largest lead any team had against Seattle this season and they lead for the overwelming majority of the game with their best player extremely limited.

I suspect the method would of been proven correct with a healthy RGIII.

But we'll never know for sure.......so on to next week..................I'm confident the method will  bounce back ..............................

Using the info posted in the OP.

Divisional Round...........................................

And the largest value mismatch is.......................................Seahawks over Falcons by 5 pts.

I'll wait it out to see where this spread is headed..............................

More to come................................................

 

 

 

 

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#34
Posted: 1/10/2013 9:48:16 PM

 

If  mellow is trying to say I lose every now and then, I'll plead guilty to that.

Anyone who's followed my post knows I post winning records at most things I've touched on this site, including my incredible 16-0 run in tennis   and my over 80% winners in my bounce factor best bets over a 2 or 3 year period.

And I did it again with my info this season Posting a Winning record in the NFL contest on the site and in all 3 office pools I entered during the NFL season, all available in my space. 

I was right on the money regarding the Chargers in 2009 who lost out-right as a big favorite to the Jets, and all it took to beat my info with the Saints winning the SB was what, 5 fumbles by AP, yea 5 fumbles and the Saints barely escape with a win, which I won ATS with the Vikings and don't forget to mention I rode the Saints ATS and ML in the SB for the win................................

Count me up-there with 100% of others who've lost a bet.................................................................

 

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Posted: 1/10/2013 10:18:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by VegasSB:

How do you come up with the figures?

 

Basically, you need to figure-out how much each  "key stat battle"  contributes to the final score.

Key stat battles are those stats which have a high correlation to winning games, the larger a team wins these battles the more often and the larger margin they will win the game.

To do this reguires digging into many boxscores and playing around with it to determine the value of each key stat battle.

If I was a computer guru I could easily do 5000 or 10,000 boxscores, but since I'm not, a calculator and alot of work is reguired.

Because of the success I've had with this method I'm now working on a different version of this.

Example, QB Passer rating has about a 80% correlation to winning.

By breaking-down many boxscores I've determined that QBPR contributes about .24 pts to the final score for each point a team outplays it's opponent.

So a team winning this battle 100-90 or by 10 pts, that 10 pt win in the QBPR contributes 2.4 pts to the final margin of the game.

Add-up all the battles and you have about what the final score should have been based on those battles.

Using this new version, Green Bay should of beat Vikes by 16.91 pts, they won by 14 therefore they gain 2.91 pts of value, which isn't much, the final score was indicative of how much Packers out-played the VIKES.

My orginal method had it GB by 15.56.

Houston pretty much out-played the Bengals by a larger amount than GB out-played Vikes.

Texans won the key stat battles by 17.21 pts, gaining  a whopping 11.02 pts of value.

My orginal method had it 17.02.

This bodes well for the Texans next week as teams out-playing the final score by such huge amounts do well the next week.

This info gives me a huge advantage over the masses that think Houston did not play that well and gives good value on backing the Texans this week...........................................................................

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#36
Posted: 1/12/2013 5:28:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

POWER RATINGS............................................................

1. 49ERS - 13.1

2. Seattle - 10.36

3. Broncos - 10.04

4. Redskins - 9.58

5. Pats - 8.58

6. Packers - 7.56

7. Texans - 6.46

8. Falcons - 4.58

9. Ravens - 4.02

10. Bengals - 3.22

11. Vikings - (-1.24)

12. Colts - (-5.96)

Find the difference between opponents and add 3 pts for home Field..................................

Ravens -12.98 over Colts

Packers -11.8 over Vikings

Texans -6.24 over Bengals

Redskins -2.22 over Seahawks

With a 6 pt difference between these and the "closing line", it's important to use the closing line as this factors in the public's perception, then we have a play.

Right now it looks like no plays, Ravens have a 5.98 diff and Skins have a 5.22 diff.

I won't adjust these ratings untill the SB, I've found they work just as well without adjusting, each week we will revisit these Power Ratings and Value Ratings and make plays.

Game-time is getting closer, Good Luck ............................................

....................................Divisional round....................................

49ers -8.54 over Packers

Denver -9.02 over Ravens

Seattle -2.78 over Atlanta

Pats -5.12 over Texans

Last week, no plays with a 6 pt difference.

This week there is a 6 pt difference on the 49ers considering that the books don't want to come off the key number of 3 so they lower the juice instead, which basically gives us the public's perception on Packers with what should be a 6 pt diff.

49ers -3 (+100) over Packers --- 7 units to win 7 units

Some great games coming this week, good luck boys...........................................

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Posted: 1/13/2013 11:28:23 AM

Power Rating Plays......................1-0 won 7 units

Value mismatch plays ...................0-1 lost 6 unit

I'm seeing +3 on Seahawks, that's a 5.78 difference with my line, very close to 6 pts. 

Thus far my lines are 4-1 ATS in the 6 games with my line being right on the line in the Denver/Ravens game.

My only loss being the Skins with RGIII playing with 2 toren knee ligaments.

I'll be riding the Seahawks today but will wait and see what this line may offer.

Weak statistical no.1 seeds rarely do well in the post season, this was Packers last year and Pats the year before and many more before those.

They cover about 35% and win SU only about 50% of the time.

And this fits Falcons......................................

ave gain per play --- 5.8-5.9 = -.1, Falcons out-played by opponents in this key effeciency indicator.

ave gain per pass --- 7.33-7.04 = .29, very weak, weak, weak for a no.1 seed, strong no.1 seeds out-play their opponents by at least .7 to 1 yd per pass att.

 

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#38
Posted: 1/13/2013 11:34:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

Power Rating Plays......................1-0 won 7 units

Value mismatch plays ...................0-1 lost 6 unit

I'm seeing +3 on Seahawks, that's a 5.78 difference with my line, very close to 6 pts. 

Thus far my lines are 4-1 ATS in the 6 games with my line being right on the line in the Denver/Ravens game.

My only loss being the Skins with RGIII playing with 2 toren knee ligaments.

I'll be riding the Seahawks today but will wait and see what this line may offer.

Weak statistical no.1 seeds rarely do well in the post season, this was Packers last year and Pats the year before and many more before those.

They cover about 35% and win SU only about 50% of the time.

And this fits Falcons......................................

ave gain per play --- 5.8-5.9 = -.1, Falcons out-played by opponents in this key effeciency indicator.

ave gain per pass --- 7.33-7.04 = .29, very weak, weak, weak for a no.1 seed, strong no.1 seeds out-play their opponents by at least .7 to 1 yd per pass att.

 


Claw, i got a question for you. Will you tease down Pats to -2.5 or tease up Texans to +16.5 in a two team teaser? Thanks! 
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Posted: 1/13/2013 12:49:41 PM
Good question, I don't really get into teasers, but I take Texans +16.5 if I had to choose.
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Posted: 1/13/2013 12:51:53 PM

Largest value mismatch - Divisional Round -  

Seahawks +3 over Falcons --- 7.7 units to win 7 units

Good luck gents, should be a very good game for Seahawk backers ..........................................

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#41
Posted: 1/13/2013 12:54:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

Good question, I don't really get into teasers, but I take Texans +16.5 if I had to choose.

Yeah, teasers are tough to play too.  
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Posted: 1/13/2013 4:30:12 PM

Another winner with the info.......................................

 

2cd Largest Value Mismatch..................................................Texans by 4.06 over Pats

Texans +10 (-120) over Pats --- 3.6 to win 3 units

My lines go to 5-1 ATS after the Seahawk cover.............................................................

 

 

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#43
Posted: 1/20/2013 10:51:20 AM

NFL Playoffs to Date --- 2-2 ATS, Won 4.4 units

   POWER RATINGS.............................................................................

49ers 13.1 - Falcons 4.58 = 49ers by 5.22

Pats 8.58 - Ravens 4.02 = Pats by 7.56,  pretty much right on the line at this point.

Largest Value Mismatch.................................................................

49ers +5.3 - Falcons -3.47 =  49ers by 8.77, the largest value mismatch in the playoffs

Ravens -1.3 - Pats - 3.29 = Ravens by 1.99

 

49ers have most of the common denominators that previous SB teams and winners have, Falcons do not.

Atlanta has been out-gained in ave per play, and has a very small advantage in ave per pass differential by only .29, ole man history roars his head and clearly shows no.1 seeds playing this weak,  don't make SB's.

History sides with the 9ers.

Normally this would be a very strong play on the 49ers, however, 49ers are a "borderline" fade on my power ratings, meaning they are playing on a unsustainable level.

Because of this I'll back-down from a best bet play to a much smaller play on the 49ers. Let's see what happens with this line as I'm seeing more and more people and pundits talking about the Falcons being under-rated and very good at home.

 

 

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#44
Posted: 1/20/2013 10:58:02 AM
thanks Claw. i have followed your plays in grand slam tennis events as well ... 
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#45
Posted: 1/20/2013 11:00:31 AM

It all began in 1997 when Denver came-out of the wild card round and went to the SB.

Since then, 15 years later the trend continues with 10 teams from the wild card round - non bye teams - making the SB.

In each of those seasons a team from the wild card round improved their game considerably in the playoffs and this looks erriely similar to the Ravens as Flacco is the highest rated QB in the playoffs.

Seems to be the prevailing trend these days with teams from the wild card round, I know one thing, I won't bet against.this trend and will likely pass on this game.

 

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#46
Posted: 1/20/2013 12:47:28 PM

49ers -4 over Falcons --- 4.4 units to win 4 units 

I'd side with the under coming in at least one of the two games  but may not take any action here.

Good Luck Gents and enjoy the great games today....................................

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#47
Posted: 1/20/2013 1:20:04 PM
thanks for your hard work claw..Im with you on the 9ers and have to go with New England at home.
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#48
Posted: 1/20/2013 1:28:17 PM
Some of the best information I've read in days...Thanks!
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#49
Posted: 1/24/2013 10:48:17 AM
So what you doing for the SB Claw?
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#50
Posted: 1/24/2013 2:11:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VegasSB:

So what you doing for the SB Claw?



theclaw doesn't abandon his numbers at the finish line... look at the first post and you'll know who he's betting in this game... you don't pass up on these types of opportunities when they present themselves... may not all win, but most of them will...
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