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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: It's PlayoFf Time........ And The Most Undervalued Team Is........................
theclaw
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#1
Posted: 1/3/2013 11:18:48 PM

It's playoff time and you know what that means, we check'in with "the key stat battles" those things that have a high correlation to winning NFL games and Super Bowls.

And The Most Undervalued Team In The League Is..........................................The Redskins,  by 6.39 points per game. 

In other words, the Redskins have out-played their opponents on the field in "the key stat battles" by 6.39 points per game more than the final score would indicate.

They are a much better team than they look.

This method has a very strong history of success in the NFL Playoffs.

The Most Undervalued Team In.....................................

2011 - Texans, 2-0 ATS

2010 - Jets, 2-1 ATS, winning out-right twice as dogs, and rolling into the AFC Championship game. Will the Skins do the same ??

2009 - Jets, 2-1 ATS, winning out-right as dogs once, and rolling into the AFC Championship game. 

 

The Undervalued Teams....................

1. Skins + 6.39

2. 49ers +5.3

3. Seahawks +1.53

4. Packers +1.5

5. Broncos +1.18

6. Texans +.8

And The Most Overvalued Team Is................................The Falcons by 3.47 points per game. 

In other words the Falcons are not as good as they look.

The Most Overvalued Teams in the League................................

1. Falcons -3.47

2. Pats - 3.29

3. Colts - 3.22

4. Vikings - 3.03

5. Ravens - 1.3

6. Bengals - 1.23

 

And The Largest Value Mismatch Is....................................

Skins over Seahawks by 4.86 pts.

For those that have followed this method know it's pure money..............

In the 1st round NBA Playoffs the method called-out the Heat over The Knicks and they rolled to a 4-1 SU & ATS win.

In the  1st round WNBA Playoffs the method called-out  LA over SA and rolled to a 2-0 & 1-0-1 ATS win.

In last years Wild Card games the method called-out the Texans over the Bengals and rolled in a 31-10 blow-out win.

That's 6-1-1 ATS in the opening round of playoffs games.

 

Redskins +3 over Seahawks --- 5.5 units to win 5 units 

Good Luck Boys and enjoy allll the great games this weekend !!...............................................

 

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#2
Posted: 1/4/2013 12:13:16 AM
Much respect to you Claw, but 8 games is not nearly enough of an acceptable sample size. I need to see much more than that to have any value which is acceptable for wagering purposes.

Also, the Jets, Texans and Miami Heat were all stellar defensive teams. This is very significant. The Redskins are not even close to matching those teams on defense(don't know anything about the LA Sparks, so I cannot comment on their defense).
The Skins had the good fortune of playing turnover prone Dallas and Philly teams 4 out of their last 7 games which skews their numbers greatly. The Skins are who we think they are, not some vastly undervalued bunch of great players. 

This matchup goes beyond any power rankings and I think Seattle is being placed(rightfully so) as favorites due to their inherent advantages. No trickery, deception or intentional misplacement of value. 

The Seahawks are simply the better overall team---offense, defense and special teams. 

They will show that on Sunday night, imo.




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#3
Posted: 1/4/2013 1:51:42 AM
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#4
Posted: 1/4/2013 2:42:41 AM
gotta agree with mellowwolf here..Seattle is the better team here..Only thing Washington has an advantage on is their homefield as the 12th man will not be a factor..Wilson Vs RG3 adv Wilson..Lynch vs Morris adv Morris..Defense adv Seattle..Carrol vs The Shanahans tie..If Seattle stuffs the run and makes Rg3 beat them with his arm I think Seattle will win this game by at least 7 points.Prediction Seattle 31 Skins 24
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#5
Posted: 1/4/2013 2:50:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SOgood:

gotta agree with mellowwolf here..Seattle is the better team here..Only thing Washington has an advantage on is their homefield as the 12th man will not be a factor..Wilson Vs RG3 adv Wilson..Lynch vs Morris adv Morris..Defense adv Seattle..Carrol vs The Shanahans tie..If Seattle stuffs the run and makes Rg3 beat them with his arm I think Seattle will win this game by at least 7 points.Prediction Seattle 31 Skins 24

advantage morris over lynch 

sorry but i highly disagree
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#6
Posted: 1/4/2013 3:15:56 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SOgood:

gotta agree with mellowwolf here..Seattle is the better team here..Only thing Washington has an advantage on is their homefield as the 12th man will not be a factor..Wilson Vs RG3 adv Wilson..Lynch vs Morris adv Morris..Defense adv Seattle..Carrol vs The Shanahans tie..If Seattle stuffs the run and makes Rg3 beat them with his arm I think Seattle will win this game by at least 7 points.Prediction Seattle 31 Skins 24

12th man will not be a factor ---> It will be a hugh factor..

Wilson Vs RG3 adv Wilson ---> Are you out of your mind? Wilson couldn't even carry RG3's jock strap.

Defense adv Seattle ----> Yeah, Seattle's D is better than Wash, but Wash D's has played extremely well during their 7 game winning streak.

Lynch vs Morris adv Morris ----> They are different types of running backs. No advantage, i would call it even.

Carrol vs The Shanahans tie ----> Is this a joke? Shannahan will eat Carroll for breakfast, lunch, and dinner...maybe dessert too

I think Seattle will win this game by at least 7 points.Prediction Seattle 31 Skins 24 ---->  If the Redskins play their game, they will win. Of course, if the Redskins play poorly like committing penalties, turnovers, etc...the outcome might be different.

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#7
Posted: 1/4/2013 4:06:03 AM
Besides den...skins is the hottest team in the NFC...I m sold. 
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#8
Posted: 1/4/2013 8:25:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

Much respect to you Claw, but 8 games is not nearly enough of an acceptable sample size. I need to see much more than that to have any value which is acceptable for wagering purposes.

Also, the Jets, Texans and Miami Heat were all stellar defensive teams. This is very significant. The Redskins are not even close to matching those teams on defense(don't know anything about the LA Sparks, so I cannot comment on their defense).
The Skins had the good fortune of playing turnover prone Dallas and Philly teams 4 out of their last 7 games which skews their numbers greatly. The Skins are who we think they are, not some vastly undervalued bunch of great players. 

This matchup goes beyond any power rankings and I think Seattle is being placed(rightfully so) as favorites due to their inherent advantages. No trickery, deception or intentional misplacement of value. 

The Seahawks are simply the better overall team---offense, defense and special teams. 

They will show that on Sunday night, imo.




 

It's called far more than 8 games, has won in every sport I've tried it, including MLB and and college football bowl games, has a very strong record in SB's including having the Pats the most overvalued team I'd ever seen going into the SB last year and calling for a  Gaints cover.

I only listed last year's picks in the opening round of playoffs because this is the opening round and because I did not want to type-out a 30 chapter book.

The most interesting thing is many, many times the masses are picking against it, because of the nature of teams being better or worse...........................       "than they appear".

It really is the most incredible thing I've ever seen...........................................and will have a big test this week but I suspect it will pass with flying colors....................................

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#9
Posted: 1/4/2013 9:01:27 AM
How do you come up with the figures?
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#10
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:57:42 AM
There is a thread originally posted by Dawniewags (now banned) regarding a system that helps revealing frauds in the playoffs. The thread was posted on 11/06/2010. The system uses total yards - total defense yards, then divided by the 16 games. Anyone with an average of at least +35 yards generally does well in the playoffs. It also mentions the t/o ration being important also. Anyways here are the numbers...they kind of coincide with playoff seeds.

AFC
Denver +107.125 / -1 TO
New England +54.625 / +25 TO
Houston +48.812 / +12 TO
Cincy +13 / +4 TO
Baltimore +1.562 / +9 TO
Colts -11.812 / -12 TO

NFC
San Fran +67.437 / +9 TO
Seabirds +44.437 / +13 TO
ATL +26.062 / +13 TO
GB +22.687 / +7 TO
Wash +5.5 / +17 TO
Minn -13.437 / -1 TO
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Posted: 1/4/2013 11:50:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

 

It's called far more than 8 games, has won in every sport I've tried it, including MLB and and college football bowl games, has a very strong record in SB's including having the Pats the most overvalued team I'd ever seen going into the SB last year and calling for a  Gaints cover.

I only listed last year's picks in the opening round of playoffs because this is the opening round and because I did not want to type-out a 30 chapter book.

The most interesting thing is many, many times the masses are picking against it, because of the nature of teams being better or worse...........................       "than they appear".

It really is the most incredible thing I've ever seen...........................................and will have a big test this week but I suspect it will pass with flying colors....................................

 
Just for the record, you've made good predictions on many occasions, but, if I recall, the Miami Heat and Minnesota Lynx were decided(90% or more?) favorites to win the Finals in 2011 and 2012, respectively, with your methodology. We all know how those series' ended. It can and does sometimes go the other way with strictly stat based power rankings. 

It also appears that "the masses" are not heavily on the Seahawks side. Not sure why you are making that inference. A lot of line movement has occurred in favor of the Skins in the last 24 hours---and there will undoubtedly be more turbulence as Sunday approaches. The key number of 3 points has been reached at a lot of books and I do not see money being heavily distributed on one side or the other come Sunday evening. 

Additionally, I don't see a mismatch, either statistically or with the "eye-test", giving a large value edge to the Skins. The Skins eerily remind me of the Randall Cunningham led Eagles teams of the late 80's/early 90's and Vick led Falcons of the mid-2000's--in the sense that they lead the league in rushing statistically(which is likely a large factor in your calculations), but it's a bit of a smoke and mirror affair with the QB running a lot. The playoffs are different. Seattle has the D to curtail either Morris or RGIII; it's highly unlikely that both will run for significant yardage. Especially given RGIII's health, which is apparently being discounted as negligible by many. Unwise when wagering to assume his output(especially running) will be the same as earlier in the year.

Also, you(and others) have mentioned the susceptibility of Seattle's D to the run and the Skins supposedly better run D. If you break down some numbers beyond just YPC allowed, it's more than a little misleading. "Key stat battles" are easier to win when your opponents are of inferior quality or do not possess their best players when you play them.
Case in point, Seattle played six times against top 10 rushing teams, including 3 of their last 8 games when they went 7-1. 
Conversely, Washington played only two top 10 rushing teams and none in their current 7 game winning streak. Seattle also played against top 15 rushers S. Jackson and F. Gore four times while Washington had the lucky luxury of its divisional opponents not having a single top 15 rusher and suffering timely injuries to their top players. Dallas was without DeMarco Murray in their 1st matchup and Philly was without LeSean McCoy in their 1st meeting(and also playing Foles in his first start). 
Also, when the Skins played teams with great rushers, they were lucky as well. Against St. Louis, they were fortunate that Steven Jackson left in the 1st quarter with a groin injury because he had 9 carries for 58 yards already. Against TB, Doug Martin only got the ball 8 times(33 yards)--his lowest # of carries for the season. Adrian Peterson also carried the ball only 17 times(79 yards) against the Skins--his 2nd lowest # for the year. The Skins really shut down only one top 15 runner this year--that was Green-Ellis(17 carries, 38 yards). Ray Rice killed them for 6.1 ypc and 120 yards. 
Skewed numbers perhaps? I think so. Not as reliable or predictive as most would like to believe. The Skins run D is not what it seems. Mirage comes to mind when you actually take the time to examine the reality behind the numbers.

Here are the Seahawks against top rushing teams/runners:
D. Murray---12 car, 44 yds
S. Jackson- 18 car, 55 yds
DeAngelo Williams- 6 car, 6 yds
Cam Newton--7 car, 42 yds
S. Ridley-16 car, 34 yds
F. Gore-16 car, 131 yds----(caveat: this was on the short week, on the road, after beating NE)
A. Peterson-17 car, 182 yds
C.J. Spiller-17 car, 103 yds---(caveat: 63 yards were in the 2nd half of a 50-17 blowout)
S. Greene- 15 car, 58 yds
M. Forte--21 car, 66 yds
C. Kaepernick--7 car, 31 yds
F. Gore---6 car, 28 yds
S. Jackson--11 car, 52 yds


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Posted: 1/4/2013 11:50:27 AM
Except for Peterson's game(no embarrassment in my mind, he was a beast the 2nd half of the season)---do these numbers say the Seattle run D is worse than Washington's?? 

If the Seahawks are keyed in---they are a very, very good run D. Much better than the Skins, imo. Who thinks they will not be "on" Sunday?

Ultimately, what makes Seattle a better overall squad is their superior D. Giving up a league leading 15.3 ppg? I cannot defend this Redskins defense when comparing it to Seattle. The Skins are just a mediocre bunch, at best, looking at any number of stats.  I don't see how anyone can call it otherwise. 

Their offenses are very close and it will come down to turnovers and QB play. With the offenses are virtually equal, I always side with the superior D.


This game will fun to watch.


I think Seattle covers. Quite possibly handily.


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Posted: 1/4/2013 11:51:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by youngrb69:

There is a thread originally posted by Dawniewags (now banned) regarding a system that helps revealing frauds in the playoffs. The thread was posted on 11/06/2010. The system uses total yards - total defense yards, then divided by the 16 games. Anyone with an average of at least +35 yards generally does well in the playoffs. It also mentions the t/o ration being important also. Anyways here are the numbers...they kind of coincide with playoff seeds.

AFC
Denver +107.125 / -1 TO
New England +54.625 / +25 TO
Houston +48.812 / +12 TO
Cincy +13 / +4 TO
Baltimore +1.562 / +9 TO
Colts -11.812 / -12 TO

NFC
San Fran +67.437 / +9 TO
Seabirds +44.437 / +13 TO
ATL +26.062 / +13 TO
GB +22.687 / +7 TO
Wash +5.5 / +17 TO
Minn -13.437 / -1 TO



Great post.



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#14
Posted: 1/4/2013 1:34:32 PM
Great info mellow_wolf. I keep flip flopping back on this Seahawks game and your post has me back on the Hawks. May be best to stay away in that case.

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Posted: 1/4/2013 3:57:09 PM
Best of Luck
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#16
Posted: 1/4/2013 5:57:40 PM
QUOTE
I posted this breakdown and this is completely different breakdown.





Originally Posted by youngrb69:

There is a thread originally posted by Dawniewags (now banned) regarding a system that helps revealing frauds in the playoffs. The thread was posted on 11/06/2010. The system uses total yards - total defense yards, then divided by the 16 games. Anyone with an average of at least +35 yards generally does well in the playoffs. It also mentions the t/o ration being important also. Anyways here are the numbers...they kind of coincide with playoff seeds.

AFC
Denver +107.125 / -1 TO
New England +54.625 / +25 TO
Houston +48.812 / +12 TO
Cincy +13 / +4 TO
Baltimore +1.562 / +9 TO
Colts -11.812 / -12 TO

NFC
San Fran +67.437 / +9 TO
Seabirds +44.437 / +13 TO
ATL +26.062 / +13 TO
GB +22.687 / +7 TO
Wash +5.5 / +17 TO
Minn -13.437 / -1 TO
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#17
Posted: 1/4/2013 8:52:52 PM
 

When I called Minny to win WNBA title at  90% and the Heat to win the title 2 years ago I did not use this method to do that.

For such futures bets I use common denominators that the majority of past champs have.  You can read my WNBA post which is still there where I pointed out Minny lead the league in both FG % and rebounding, that has nothing to do with value on Minny.

With that said of coarse this method won't go 100%, but I've seen enough of it to know I would never bet against it.  

It's no question Seattle is a strong team with a better overall defense.

The Redskins have out-played their opponents so consistently in all the key stat battles, their defense might be weaker but their offense always seems to out-perform what the defense gives-up more consistent than Seattle.

The Redskins have won the combination of key stat battles 12 and lost 4, which means they are actually 12-4 not 10-6 to the method.

That alone gives one value because this again shows the Skins are better than they appear.

Seattle has won 11- lost 5.

What do you think the spread would be if Skins were 12-4, and how do you think that would affect public thinking ?

In the eyes of the method they are 12-4, this gives the method an advantage others don't have.

The Redskins have actually out-played their opponents at a higher level in some close games than Seattle did in their 42-13 beat-down of the 49ers, which the method rated as a 18 pt win, not a 29 poin t beat-down.

The Redskins had 10 pt wins where they won the combination of key stat battles by a larger amount than Seattle's 29 pt win, and the method rated that as a 21 pt win.

One of the things the method does is reward teams for domination in a stat battle, Skins have had more of these than Seattle.

One of the best indicators that  many  are not  aware of is, dominating weak teams is a strong indication of a very good team.

FO has done work in this area and so have other web sites as well as myself.

Skins have more high levels of domination than the Seahawks which pushes-up the overall averages.

RGIII is higher rated, has a better ave per pass and is far better at not throwing int's.  Wilson throws int at almost  double the rate of RGIII.

And having 0 or 1 TO games is big for the method...........................................................

 

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Posted: 1/4/2013 8:59:32 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by youngrb69:

There is a thread originally posted by Dawniewags (now banned) regarding a system that helps revealing frauds in the playoffs. The thread was posted on 11/06/2010. The system uses total yards - total defense yards, then divided by the 16 games. Anyone with an average of at least +35 yards generally does well in the playoffs. It also mentions the t/o ration being important also. Anyways here are the numbers...they kind of coincide with playoff seeds.

AFC
Denver +107.125 / -1 TO
New England +54.625 / +25 TO
Houston +48.812 / +12 TO
Cincy +13 / +4 TO
Baltimore +1.562 / +9 TO
Colts -11.812 / -12 TO

NFC
San Fran +67.437 / +9 TO
Seabirds +44.437 / +13 TO
ATL +26.062 / +13 TO
GB +22.687 / +7 TO
Wash +5.5 / +17 TO
Minn -13.437 / -1 TO

I've called This person out in the past for posting false info.

I am quite aware of total yds diff in SB winners, to say that teams over +35 generally do well is false.

To assume that teams under +35 are frauds or won't do well is false, many such teams have made the AFC or NFC championship games.

To say that the majority of SB winners out-gained their opponents by +35 yds or more is true.

To say teams under +35 likely won't win the SB is true.

That info in no way has any bearing on whether the Skins will cover the spread this week, but I do agree it indicates the Skins are not likely to win the SB, but has nothing to do with the Skins covering the spread this week.

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#19
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:09:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

I've called This person out in the past for posting false info.

I am quite aware of total yds diff in SB winners, to say that teams over +35 generally do well is false.

To assume that teams under +35 are frauds or won't do well is false, many such teams have made the AFC or NFC championship games.

To say that the majority of SB winners out-gained their opponents by +35 yds or more is true.

To say teams under +35 likely won't win the SB is true.

That info in no way has any bearing on whether the Skins will cover the spread this week, but I do agree it indicates the Skins are not likely to win the SB, but has nothing to do with the Skins covering the spread this week.

Just off the top of my head I can tell you something like 9 teams made the SB since 1999 under +35 total yds diff , and 3 won it with 2 covering , and 3 others covered the spread.

Many of those teams were in the wild card round and won 3 consecutive games in the Playoffs including the G-men last year.

We're not talking about covering the spread in 1 wild card game but winning 3 consecutive games as dogs, Zona did it getting to SB and covering for 4-0 ATS in the playoffs, 2007 Gmen did it 4-0 ATS,as did Carolina in 2003 4-0 ATS and Titans in 1999 , 4-0 ATS.

So let's not get carried away with under +35 yard teams like the Redskins being frauds who can't do well. Totally false info...............................................

 

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#20
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:28:26 PM

POWER RATINGS............................................................

1. 49ERS - 13.1

2. Seattle - 10.36

3. Broncos - 10.04

4. Redskins - 9.58

5. Pats - 8.58

6. Packers - 7.56

7. Texans - 6.46

8. Falcons - 4.58

9. Ravens - 4.02

10. Bengals - 3.22

11. Vikings - (-1.24)

12. Colts - (-5.96)

Find the difference between opponents and add 3 pts for home Field..................................

Ravens -12.98 over Colts

Packers -11.8 over Vikings

Texans -6.24 over Bengals

Redskins -2.22 over Seahawks

With a 6 pt difference between these and the "closing line", it's important to use the closing line as this factors in the public's perception, then we have a play.

Right now it looks like no plays, Ravens have a 5.98 diff and Skins have a 5.22 diff.

I won't adjust these ratings untill the SB, I've found they work just as well without adjusting, each week we will revisit these Power Ratings and Value Ratings and make plays.

Game-time is getting closer, Good Luck ............................................

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Posted: 1/5/2013 12:20:46 AM
Since you referenced FO, let's talk. 

Football Outsiders(FO) has Defense-adjusted Value Over Average(DVOA) which is a very comprehensive data set. More so than the ambiguous "method" which you use and are purporting is equivalent or perhaps superior. DVOA clearly shows the dominance of the Seahawks defense, offense and special teams. Here are their full season rankings:
Sea: Total DVOA: #1, Team offense(weighted)#1, team defense #4, special teams #3
Was:Total DVOA: #9,Team offense(weighted)#5,  team defense #17, special teams #27,

It is quite different from your rankings and shows Seattle's clear cut dominance.  So why is your "method" more predictive or comprehensive than theirs? Please explain what data and analysis you use that is superior to what FO has. It seems to me that they obviously do more research and data analysis than any single person can reasonably do on their own. 

In addition, it is absolutely clear that the Seahawks had more "dominating wins" than the Skins. Seattle had 6 wins by double digits. The Skins had only 3, including the season ender with Dallas, which I would hardly qualify as dominant. 
Sounds like Seattle is being penalized, in your methodology, for giving up garbage yards and points after blowing teams out.  Or am I mistaken?

Also, you do realize that Wilson threw 5 of his 10 picks in only two games, his 4th and 5th starts of the year? In his last 8 games he threw just 2 picks, the same as RGIII. He also threw for 16 TD's in those 8 games, compared to RGIII's 13. Do you take early season games as a QB into consideration, as does the DVOA? Or do you just lump INT's as all being equal, no matter their place or timing? That hardly seems scientific. 
In fact, the last 8 games show that Wilson had a higher QBR, rating and DYAR as compared to Griffin. Or is momentum and current play not relevant in your model?

We all have our own ways of evaluating strengths and weaknesses, so more power to you and your system. 

However, the overall ambiguity of your "method" as compared to DVOA leaves much unexplained and to be desired.

I'll stick with the thoroughly researched, non-mysterious and well defined DVOA.

Good luck to you.


For those interested in FO, here's the link:  

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/
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Location: Michigan
#22
Posted: 1/5/2013 12:32:32 AM
Stats aside....RG3 has a bum knee, which was obvious in last weeks win. SEA pass D is solid and will force RG3 to make plays with his legs, which is not good when injured. Defense wins important games, my gut tells me SEA easily wins and covers. I am thinking RG3 go's out with an injury and SEA rolls.....
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ApocalypseLater
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#23
Posted: 1/5/2013 12:34:29 AM
definitely agree with you about the Falcons... problem with the Skins being undervalued is that the Seahawks are also undervalued...

i hate the fact these two teams are playing in the first round!
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BIGfnPOO
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#24
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:21:30 AM
seattle   denver  super  ....  mellowolf  great writeup   thx
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#25
Posted: 1/5/2013 1:23:27 AM
the claw   gd job
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