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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: How to Create Steady Monthly Income from Betting on Sports
SportsMavin send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 12/22/2012 12:14:19 PM
NFL:
DETROIT Lions - ATLANTA Falcons (current -3.5, 50.5, opening -3, 51)
My gut feeling from looking at it: the Lions got embarrassed at Arizona last week same as Arizona got embarrassed the week before by Seattle and now are playing the Falcons who embarrassed the Giants last week, the team that embarrassed the Saints week before, got embarrassed by the Redskins week before and embarrassed the Packers week before. Of course, after being embarrassed by the Bengals week before that. So, if you get my point - the teams in NFL hate to be embarrassed and week after that trying to embarrass the opposition. If it was a regular middle of the season game when the Falcons were still uncertain if they're an overrated team destined to become a fluke towards the end of the season or they are a playoff caliber team - I would think they will still try to come into this game and make a usual effort. But, since they're well at the point they wanted to be and the only concern they might have is not repeating the last season's and the season before scenario - losing week 16 and exiting the playoffs at the first game each of those seasons. So, hearing the coaching staff talking of finishing the season on a strong note as all the teams who play strong in December  - January, have a good shot at taking it all - makes me to reexamine my natural support for a home underdog on a prime time. So, my gut feeling is Atlanta winning but nor covering with some doubts in Stafford that will be examined further in my research.
What the numbers say: 3 independent computerized tools at the disposal of odds makers predict 27.4 -24 ATLANTA, 25.6 - 21.4 ATLANTA and 28.5 - 26 ATLANTA. Those calculations are the result of 1000 simulations ran by a computer.  So here too, so far the notion of Atlanta winning but Detroit covering is holding. Not real dominant bet on Detroit, but not a red light neither.
One thing that is important thou is the T/O ratio that shows that the Falcons are +9 in that dpt while the host are -9. (18 T/O margin!!!). That is something close to a red light actually saying that even if all are good and happy with certain result - you can't be sure because the Lions can screw it up like the Eagles and the Bears screwed up the results whole world would be happy with.
Now let's examine what the guys who look at the tapes of the games can contribute here:
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powerade
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#27
Posted: 12/22/2012 12:34:47 PM
F off tout. 

Typical tout pattern here, posting without plays, already offering his picks for free and multiple obvious fake profiles posting "great job" and handshakes. 

Just leave now. 

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#28
Posted: 12/22/2012 1:04:06 PM
Well, the tape watchers come to a conclusion that despite the Lions' uneven ground attack, the best way for them to score is using the running game, which is the point for Under backers. Overall the predicted result from those who examine the tapes is 27-17 Atlanta with Detroit keeping the game close most of the game.
The public support and Money on the teams:
As of now, 12:45 pm - the numbers are as follows (18 books): 1845 bets on ATLANTA -3.5, total volume of those account to 2,068,245$, which are over 88% of total money on this event spread. Those also include large bets (8) and an average sum of the bet is 1,121$.
The numbers on DETROIT are: 1161 bets summing up to 272,835$ with 5 large bets. The average bet size on DETROIT is 235$.
The interesting point is that the large bets are called the bets over 1000$ and if you examine the average bets and it's 1,121$ per bet - the meaning is that few very very large bets were placed on ATLANTA. Otherwise the average would not be over 1000$ with only 8 out of 1845 bets being over 1000$.
Now, this info is with limited warranty as the numbers are coming from one site only without me being able to confirm the money numbers anywhere else. The percent info can be confirmed and is true.
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#29
Posted: 12/22/2012 1:13:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by powerade:

F off tout. 

Typical tout pattern here, posting without plays, already offering his picks for free and multiple obvious fake profiles posting "great job" and handshakes. 

Just leave now. 

Powerade, I hear you. I understand too well your skepticism and bear no grudge for your uncalled outburst buddy. I have seen that picture myself too many times and the only future will show how happy you'd be that you're wrong now. And wrong you are. I absolutely have no desire to get into being a person who sells his picks and if you'd read all my posts here - you'd understand that. Been there, seen that. No thanks!. The good people you doubt who came into this thread and you're showing utmost disrespect for veterans as yourself - that is a shame and sooner or later - you will have to face the fact you wronged some people without any reason. But I am a believer in creating good environment and hope I will succeed to do it here gathering around few very serious and good men who can turn the betting on sports into a profitable venture. I did. I'm trying to share it. 
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you!
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#30
Posted: 12/22/2012 1:55:41 PM
The game is not figuring at the Streak Survivor contest with the leaders nor with the Office Pull (orangeman44). 
My leans here are Under 50.5 and Atlanta Falcons -3.5
Yet to be finalized 
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a4u2fear
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#31
Posted: 12/22/2012 2:04:28 PM
thanks for your insights sportsmavin, this thread has been a pleasure to read.
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#32
Posted: 12/22/2012 2:37:13 PM
well wrote and insightful
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#33
Posted: 12/22/2012 2:47:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by powerade:

F off tout. 

Typical tout pattern here, posting without plays, already offering his picks for free and multiple obvious fake profiles posting "great job" and handshakes. 

Just leave now. 


Get a fking life Poweradeloser. Just because an actual intelligent person comes here and wants to help out gives you no right to call him a tout and to get lost.

You are a pathetic POS. You have over 17,000 posts, so I guess that means you think you are some guy that polices the covers forum. Cause you been around so looong and you and da covers peeps own this joint, like fk off loser.

So sick of you fking losers who just troll others threads, make false accusations, and attack a guy for just trying to bring some new angels for a change instead of all the board flooding of "SANCHEZ SUCKS" "PITTS OLD" etc....  

Everyone is free here to post what they want. Why don't you go off yourself poweradeloser so the world is better without one more fking broke azz loser with so much hate to spread cause he hates his own life and everyone in his family thinks he's is a joke, bc he fking is. 
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#34
Posted: 12/22/2012 2:48:38 PM
a4u2fear & idle_havoc   
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#35
Posted: 12/22/2012 2:49:30 PM
So you bought an ad on covers and realized it wasn't getting enough hits so you made a thread to get people's attention.

Bookies hate him ad is just about the same as what your preaching. 
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#36
Posted: 12/22/2012 2:59:44 PM
MITkid - that's ok. I don't mind people speaking their mind off if they feel too. Even when it's negative. That is usually result of disappointments from their past experiences  - although in different circumstances and with different people.  I appreciate your support and suggest we all get along with the spirit of upcoming holidays.
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#37
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:06:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pezeveng:

So you bought an ad on covers and realized it wasn't getting enough hits so you made a thread to get people's attention.

Bookies hate him ad is just about the same as what your preaching. 

Say what?????
Hey buddy - I really tried to make sense of what you're saying, but besides understanding that you mean no good - I couldn't understand what the heck are you trying to say here. Books hate whom? What am I preaching? Who bought an ad? You mean advertisement? I did? Hello, ground control to major Tom....
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lightsout2184
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#38
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:09:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by powerade:

F off tout. 

Typical tout pattern here, posting without plays, already offering his picks for free and multiple obvious fake profiles posting "great job" and handshakes. 

Just leave now. 

Why don't you leave. He has put in a lot of effort on the thread. Still a great read. You don't have to read it.

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#39
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:09:58 PM
I am finalizing: 
DETROIT Lions - ATLANTA Falcons    Under 50.5  (-110)  220$
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#40
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:11:50 PM
lightsout2184 
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#41
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:28:23 PM
Strong leans on Washington +4 and Under 44 in College Football game. It will stay as a lean to examine our lean theory
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#42
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:30:50 PM
Great Post!! Keep it coming!
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#43
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:31:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MITkid:


Get a fking life Poweradeloser. Just because an actual intelligent person comes here and wants to help out gives you no right to call him a tout and to get lost.

You are a pathetic POS. You have over 17,000 posts, so I guess that means you think you are some guy that polices the covers forum. Cause you been around so looong and you and da covers peeps own this joint, like fk off loser.

So sick of you fking losers who just troll others threads, make false accusations, and attack a guy for just trying to bring some new angels for a change instead of all the board flooding of "SANCHEZ SUCKS" "PITTS OLD" etc....  

Everyone is free here to post what they want. Why don't you go off yourself poweradeloser so the world is better without one more fking broke azz loser with so much hate to spread cause he hates his own life and everyone in his family thinks he's is a joke, bc he fking is. 

HAHAHAHAHAH cue the other fake profiles and even better with "MitKid" another tout loser with the same profile and pattern. 


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#44
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:34:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by divingincozumel:

Great Post!! Keep it coming!

Case and point right here with a fake profile

Joined "June 2007" and this is your first post. 


Just like another Sammy, Bets2win, PitViper and so on.  

 
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#45
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:46:04 PM
Hey ive been reading posts on this forum for a while. I just syarted posting but I can assure you I dont personally know sportsmarvin. That being said, why dont u take the time to read through his posts before you bring negativity to the thread.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#46
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:47:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

I am finalizing: 
DETROIT Lions - ATLANTA Falcons    Under 50.5  (-110)  220$

GL mate. Have the same pick. Great thread!
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bizatches
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#47
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:48:33 PM
good read, very insightful thx for all the work
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#48
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:52:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hellahigh:

Hey ive been reading posts on this forum for a while. I just syarted posting but I can assure you I dont personally know sportsmarvin. That being said, why dont u take the time to read through his posts before you bring negativity to the thread.
Powerade is a  d i c kless  person. Any beginning psychoanalyst would tell you that. Hey Powerade, why don't you come into my thread and talk sh it? You're invited. I ca also recommend you a place you can get you d i ck reattached if you remember which mouse bit it off
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#49
Posted: 12/22/2012 4:09:09 PM
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#50
Posted: 12/22/2012 4:45:15 PM
  Call out the tout and watch the aliases come to hi addresses in droves. 
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